October 30, 2009

Dave Childers
Publisher

Ole Miss rushing versus the Auburn ground defense:? Ole Miss had an outstanding day running the football against Arkansas, going for 225 yards and Dexter McCluster was a big part of that.? However, the Rebels won't catch Auburn off guard with the heavy use of McCluster the way they did against Arkansas.? Still, the match-up favors Ole Miss and further helping the cause is an offensive line that has all but taken on a new identity and appears to be gaining chemistry and playing more physical.? Ole Miss enters the game ranked No. 44 among the 120 FBS teams in rushing offense, going for 167 yards a game.? They'll face an Auburn defense that is ranked No. 89 in rushing defense, giving up about 175 yards a game. Auburn ranks 11th in the SEC in both total defense and run defense. The Tiger defense gave up only 122 yards on the ground to LSU, but gave up 282 yards to Kentucky and 221 yards to Arkansas in its other losses.? Ole Miss will throw several backs at Auburn to find a weakness, whether it's McCluster on the edges or Brandon Bolden or Rodney Scott between the tackles.

Advantage: Ole Miss

Ole Miss passing versus the Auburn secondary:?? Ole Miss is steadily moving up in passing offense and Jevan Snead's 300-yard plus game last weekend has moved the Rebels up to No. 51 in passing offense, going for almost 225 yards a game.? Last week, it wasn't Snead throwing downfield as much as he was hitting McCluster and other receivers on short passes that were turned into long gains.? It's a good strategy for Ole Miss, one that results in Snead's confidence continuing to grow as well as to frustrate opposing defenses trying to pressure Snead by using screen passes and other quick releases that offset any rush.? Auburn is No. 35 in pass defense, giving up 194 yards a game to opposing quarterbacks. Similar to its rushing defense, Auburn looked good early in the year, but has been exploited some lately, including giving up 274 yards to Arkansas and 254 yards to LSU through the air.? Tennessee also threw for 259 yards and West Virginia threw for 302 yards against the Tigers.? If the Rebels can get the running game going, they'll likely have substantial success through the air too, but if they struggle with the running game, the passing game also will not be as effective.

Advantage:? Even

Auburn rushing versus the Ole Miss ground defense: Auburn enters the game ranked No. 7 in rushing offense, running for 230 yards a game.? In the last three games - all losses - they rushed for 242, 220, and 112 yards, respectably, against Arkansas, Kentucky, and LSU.? Ole Miss' defense, talent-wise, is likely more akin to LSU than any other defense Auburn has seen all year.? Ole Miss is No. 60 in rushing defense, giving up 133 yards a game on the ground.? Tate, a senior, has been the Tigers' top offensive weapon and ranks second in the SEC, averaging 115.4 rushing yards per game with five touchdowns.? Ole Miss will have to keep him in check this weekend and also keep an eye on McCalebb, who has McCluster-type game breaking speed.? While the Rebels had a great week defending the run last week, they had trouble in other games, including giving up around 225 yards to Alabama and will need to dominate the line of scrimmage against a solid Tiger front.? Ole Miss has also appeared more vulnerable against teams with a dual-threat quarterback and if Todd Cox plays the entire game, it could help the Rebel defense in run containment.

Advantage: Auburn

Auburn passing versus the Ole Miss secondary:?? The surprise on the Ole Miss team for 2009 remains the Rebel secondary.? The Rebels are ranked No. 15 in pass defense, giving up about 167 yards a game, The unit did give up 254 yards of passing offense to Arkansas last week - but 58 of those yards was on a fluke play (deflected pass) and Ryan Mallett hit on only 12 of 34 passes as he was under constant pressure from Nix's LandSharks. Auburn is No. 78 in passing, throwing for just 200 yards a game. In the last three games, the Tigers have thrown for 133 yards (Arkansas), 95 yards (Kentucky), and 81 yards (LSU).? Todd, a senior, is passing for 186 yards per game with 12 touchdowns? and three interceptions. While offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's offense was to impact Auburn and the SEC, it appears that either opponents have figured out a way to stop or limit his offense, the competition is becoming more challenging than it was early in the season, or his team doesn't have the speed to execute against speedy SEC defenses - or perhaps a combination of all three.? If Auburn offers no passing threat, look for Ole Miss to concentrate on shutting down the running game and dominate this game.

Advantage:? Ole Miss

Special Teams:? Ole Miss special teams was aided by the return of holder Justin Sparks and punt returner Marshay Green from injury last week.? True freshman Tyler Campbell continues to handle punting chores and didn't get many opportunities last week. Josh Shene continues to be golden when it comes to place kicking.? True freshman Jesse Grandy likely has found a home as kicker returner for the next three years and gives the Rebel a homerun threat.? Coverage last week was superb considering the game breaking ability Arkansas possessed and has been good all year, except for a handful of breakdowns.

Advantage: Even

Weather forecast:? Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 50s. Chance of rain is 40 percent.

Broadcast Information:? TV: SEC Network (Dave Neal, play-by-play; Andre Ware analyst; Cara Capuano, sideline reporter). The game will also be available on ESPN GamePlan. RADIO: Ole Miss Radio Network (David Kellum, play-by-play; Harry Harrison, analyst; Stan Sandroni, sideline reporter); Satellite Radio: XM 199, Sirius 215 (Auburn broadcast). ESPN RADIO: (Bill Rosinski, play-by-play; Dennis Franchione, analyst; Joe Schad, sideline reporter). WEB: OleMissSports.com will provide live stats and live audio on RebelVision. The game will also be streamed online at ESPN360.com.

Prediction: Ole Miss 24 - Auburn 17

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