November 5, 2009

Dave Childers
Publisher

Eleven of the 12 SEC teams are in action this week with three conference games on tap while five teams will be hosting out-of-conference opponents.? Headlining the action is LSU visiting Alabama in a match-up of top 10 teams while another potentially close game should be South Carolina at Arkansas.

Here's a closer look at this week's games ...

Conference games:?

South Carolina at Arkansas: The Gamecocks are poised to start what has become an annual second half implosion - a trend of starting off hot and faltering in the second half of the season.? South Carolina, coming off a 31-13 loss at Tennessee, has lost two out of its three last games and its two wins at home over the last four games have been by six points - two points over Kentucky and four over Vanderbilt.? Arkansas rebounded after a near embarrassing loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago to beat up on winless Eastern Michigan, 63-27.? Arkansas still can get bowl eligible with home game opportunities remaining with Troy and Mississippi State - but they're likely to get a step closer against a struggling South Carolina squad.? Key for Arkansas is not letting Gamecock quarterback Stephen Garcia torch its secondary and getting pressure on Ryan Mallett, which Steve Spurrier should have a blueprint for after watching the Ole Miss game.? Arkansas 28 - South Carolina 27

Vanderbilt at Florida: Florida had a field day against Georgia in a 41-17 thumping, but the Gators may actually face a somewhat better defense in Vanderbilt.? Still, the Commodores have no offense, although they did manage 31 points against Georgia Tech, while the defense gave up 56 points.? Vanderbilt ran for over 200 yards last week, but will find tougher going this week against Florida's defense, but must shore up holes on defense after giving up almost 600 yards to Tech.? Vanderbilt certainly can't afford another three turnovers like it had against the Yellow Jackets.? Look for the Gators to keep winning, but after the rivalry game last week, this one could be closer than some expect.? Florida 31 - Vanderbilt 17

LSU at Alabama:? The SEC West Division Championship team is on the line when these two teams meet on Saturday.? LSU's only loss was to Florida and Alabama has dodged having to play a team that has been a major threat, although Tennessee nearly pulled the upset two weeks ago in a 12-10 Tide win.? LSU appeared to struggle early in the season, but credit head coach Les Miles with keeping the Tigers in the national championship hunt.? That becomes a real possibility if he can pull off an upset Saturday.? These two teams are similar on offense, but the edge on defense slightly favors Alabama.? The Tide should come out with a win thanks to that edge on defense and home field advantage.? Alabama 21 - LSU 20

Non-conference games:

Furman at Auburn: Although Auburn lost three in a row after a 5-0 start, last Saturday's upset win over Ole Miss now has the Tigers in good position for new head coach Gene Chizik to finish with a very respectable season. Add to that the early makings of a good recruiting class and it appears Auburn's downturn won't last long.? Furman comes in a 4-4, and Auburn has struggled at times, such as early in the season with a 54-30 win over then winless Ball State, when playing lower level competition. But it's unlikely Furman can muster enough of an effort to make this game close.? The bigger test for Auburn comes against Georgia in Athens next week.? Auburn 45 - Furman 14

Memphis at Tennessee: Everyone knew the Tennessee staff could recruit; the question was if it could coach and that answer is coming in to focus.? A 31-13 win over South Carolina has Tennessee positioned for a mid-tier, or even higher, bowl game.? Remaining games against Memphis, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Kentucky are all very much winnable games that could put the Vols at 8-4 and a trip to the Cotton or Outback Bowl.? Meanwhile, Memphis, at 2-6, has become almost laughable this year after several respectable seasons and back to back bowl appearances.? A coaching change is all but a forgone conclusion and the trip to Knoxville could get very ugly for the Tigers.? Tennessee's defense is playing well and the offense offers a balanced attack that is challenging for defenses.? It should be an easy game for Tennessee to improve to 5-4.? Tennessee 48 - Memphis 10

Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky:? Eastern Kentucky comes in at 5-3, which includes a near upset of Indiana before falling 19-13 in its season opener.? Kentucky has been riddled with injuries and play at quarterback and defensive injuries contributed heavily in the Wildcats loss to Mississippi State last week.? Kentucky still has a chance to salvage the season with winnable games remaining at Vanderbilt and at Georgia.? Kentucky 21 - Eastern Kentucky 10

Tennessee Tech at Georgia:? Tennessee Tech comes in at 5-3 and that includes a 49-7 loss against Kansas State in its only other venture into Division I play.? Georgia was embarrassed in Jacksonville and could be headed toward its first losing season in more than a decade with games at home against Auburn and on the road against Georgia Tech remaining.? Even the home game against Kentucky on Nov. 21 is not a given.? One thing is certain, barring a four game winning streak, there will likely be major changes on the staff after the season.? But Saturday is a chance for Bulldog fans to forget about the team's four losses - at least for a few hours.? Georgia 42 - Tennessee Tech 17

Northern Arizona at Ole Miss:? Because of scheduling problems, Ole Miss plays its second Division IAA opponent this season, but what should be an over-glorified scrimmage comes at a major cost - the game will not count toward the six wins required to become bowl eligible.? That puts Ole Miss in a position of needing to win two out of its last three SEC games to become a serious bowl contender.? Ole Miss could go to a bowl with six wins, but per SEC rule, only if sufficient teams with with at least seven wins are not available.? With Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, Auburn, and Mississippi State all in a position to win seven games, the Rebels could be in serious trouble.? The Lumberjacks come in at 5-3 and while it should be a big Rebel win, it will be interesting to watch former Rebel quarterback Michael Herrick sling the ball around.? He's thrown for almost 2,500 yards and has an efficiency rating of 159.1 and has thrown for 18 touchdown passes. ?Ole Miss 45 - Northern Arizona 10

Last week: 4-3
Overall: 53-14
Ole Miss picks: 6-2

Power rankings:

SEC East: Florida (1), Tennessee (2), South Carolina and Georgia (tied for 3), Kentucky (5), and Vanderbilt (6)

SEC West: Alabama (1), LSU (2), Auburn (3), Ole Miss, Arkansas,? and Miss. State (tied for 4)