RebelSports.net - Rebel Ramblings: The reason behind the struggles

November 6, 2009

Dave Childers
Publisher

After being ranked as high as No. 4 in the nation in late September, Ole Miss has fallen adrift and unranked headed into this week's game against Northern Arizona.

While many fans have searched for answers after what has to be best termed a shocking, almost lopsided loss to an Auburn team coming off three straight losses, others have spent time engaged in conversation about controversial symbols that has raged on campus and spilled over on the regional, if not national, scene.

Only at Ole Miss could a symbols debate overshadow serious college football dialogue and trying to figure out what is wrong with the football team.

For those interested in college football, I'll offer my assessment of the situation.

While the average fan focuses on criticizing the offensive line, quarteback play, the lack of a deep threat, or a good defense that seemed to fall apart on the Plains, there's a much deeper answer.

The answer rests largely with the probation era.

Yes, it goes back all the way to the mid-1990s?

How can that be?

Follow the logic. Billy Brewer signed almost half of his last class in 1994 with junior college players who had only two years of eligibility remaining. Tommy Tuberville arrived and could sign only 13 players each in 1995 and 1996. His 1997 class, which included the likes of Terrence Metcalf, Romaro Miller, and Deuce McAllister - all recruiting prizes and a couple with long NFL careers ahead of them - were not given the benefit of a redshirt season, all playing as true freshmen.

Fast forward to 2002, and then head coach David Cutcliffe, signed only 18 players due to imbalances in recruiting classes caused by decisions made by Brewer and Tuberville. Out of that 18, you can count on one hand how many contributed and attrition in that class was unusually high. That would eventually impact the 2006 signing class and how players were used and the impact can still be felt today and will be felt for the next few years.

Except for last season, the last class that had any sizeable number of fifth year seniors was in 2003 and included the likes of Eli Manning and that team finished 10-3 with a Cotton Bowl win. That class, signed in 1999, had almost a dozen fifth year seniors.

It's no coincidence that the two best seasons Ole Miss has had this century had a high number of fifth year seniors.

For the next four years following the 2003 season, no class at Ole Miss would have that level of experience and had four straight losing seasons.

In 2006, Ed Orgeron used 17 true freshman. And, while several, like Greg Hardy and Marcus Tillman drew freshmen All-American honors, they began burning their eligibility which will impact the team next season.

Those players signed in 2006 are seniors today - all without the benefit of a redshirt season. Imagine how potent Ole Miss would be in 2010 if Kendrick Lewis, Greg Hardy, Marcus Tillman, Shay Hodge, Cordera Eason, Josh Shene, Daverin Geralds, Dexter McCluster, and John Jerry were all returning instead of exhausting their eligibility.

Mull over the Rebels roster and the fifth year seniors are easy to find: Marshay Green, Reid Neely, Justin Sparks and Billy Tapp jump out as fifth year seniors.

Contrast that to last season when Darryl Harris, Terrell Jackson, Chris Bowers, Jason Cook, Maurice Miller, Dustin Mouzon, and David Traxler were all fifth year seniors. Throw in Peria Jerry, who had an extra year to develop courtesy of a year at Hargrave Military Academy, and a couple of experienced and aged junior college transfers like Tony Fein and Ashlee Palmer, and the leadership that won the 2009 Cotton Bowl was in place.

While head coach Houston Nutt has lauded the leadership of Jerry, Lewis, and some others, it's not the same as being a fifth year senior.

Tuberville once said Miami won national championships with fifth year seniors and no truer words have been spoken.

Of course, any coach is going to use players immediately who can impact. There's some so talented that a fifth year in not necessary. Darren McFadden comes to mind, so does Greg Hardy. As one NFL scout recently told me - "I haven't seen a player yet who wasn't helped with a fifth year, with very few exceptions."

Nutt, while using impact players during his two years, has also redshirted a great many in his two signing classes at Ole Miss, either based on needed development of the prospect or the luxury of depth. That should pay dividends for Ole Miss in the long run.

By all accounts, Nutt is a charismatic coach and a motivator. That was in evidence for the Arkansas game. However, head coaches can only motivate and warn of ambushes, such as Ole Miss went through last week in Auburn, so much. The legendary Johnny Vaught recounted in his book, Rebel Coach, his warning to his team to take Southern Miss seriously in 1970 - but his players ignored that advice and the team was upset and soundly defeated.

It takes talent and experience to win football games. Sometimes, that talent among prospects doesn't fully materialize until the fourth or even fifth year. Unfortunately, Ole Miss doesn't have the talent to overcome the lack of experience, especially at some key positions, and that lack of experience and leadership from fifth year seniors has probably impacted the 2009 Rebels more than any other factor.

It all goes back to recruiting, but if a team is not recruiting the talent to impact immediately, like an Alabama, it better have a plan in place to develop lessor talented prospects into experienced players, and that's something Ole Miss had not done prior to Nutt's arrival.

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