October 8, 2009

Dave Childers
Publisher

Two out of conference games are on tap this week with the remainder of the SEC teams going head to head.

This week's predictions are challenging with close games very possible when Georgia goes to Tennessee, Auburn trips to Arkansas, and Florida visits LSU.

Here's this week's predictions ...

Out of conference:

Houston at Miss. State: Houston looked unstoppable against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, but was upended by Texas-El Paso and fell to 3-1 and out of the Top 25 after a 17 point loss last Saturday.? Meanwhile, State played well, at least score-wise, in a 42-31 loss to Georgia Tech.? It'll be a direct contrast this week as compared to the Tech game because Houston will definitely put the ball in the air.? Mississippi State has played reasonably well all season and should be able to score against a Cougar defense that has given up 126 points in its last three games.? This is a game, in a long list of games this week, that could go either way, but take the home standing Bulldogs in a close one and one that won't feature as many points as some expect.? Mississippi State 31 - Houston 24

Vanderbilt at Army: Vanderbilt will look to get back to .500 when they trip to New York to take on the Black Knights in a game that will feature a lot of black and gold.? The Commodores have had three tough losses - to LSU, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss - games in which they only scored 19 points combined.? Army is also coming in with a 2-3 record and off a 17-16 loss to Tulane.? The Black Knights also aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut, scoring 26 points in back to back losses (the other losses were to Iowa State and Duke).? It's a chance for Vanderbilt to get back on track offensively and a must win for the Commodores if they want to repeat on last year's bowl team.? But there's no game the rest of the season that looks like a better chance for a win than against Army this Saturday.? Vanderbilt 21 - Army 14

Conference games:?

Auburn at Arkansas:? Both teams are coming off wins with Auburn beating Tennessee in Knoxville and Arkansas downing Texas A&M.? Auburn moved into the Top 25 with the win and it could be a short stay if the Tigers don't take care of business in Fayetteville.? Word is that the defense improved some against Tennessee, and it'll be definitely challenged this week against pass-happy Bobby Petrino.? If Petrino is going to get to .500 and perhaps land a lower tier bowl, a win here is a must with road trips to Florida and Ole Miss coming in the next two weeks. At 2-2, Petrino will have chances later in the season for wins when the Hawgs play Troy and Eastern Michigan, but no other games are anywhere close to being a given.? If Auburn can get a win here, they have smooth sailing until back to back games against LSU and Ole Miss later in October.? Arkansas definitely as a shot at the win if Petrino can find some holes in the Tiger secondary, but Auburn is on a roll and could be hard to beat.? Auburn 38 - Arkansas 35

Georgia at Tennessee:? Georgia is reeling after a last minute score that allowed LSU to take the game in Athens last week.? Call it the football gods getting even for two games the Bulldogs should have lost earlier in the year - South Carolina and Arizona State.? Georgia is playing like a mediocre team and the best hope is continued magic by head coach Mark Richt on offense.? He'll face a Tennessee team that may be close to second guessing their decision to hire Lane Kiffin as the Vols struggled against Ohio and then lost to Auburn and now a few prized recruits for the 2010 signing class are second guessing their decision to commit early.? Other than a good showing at Florida, the Vols haven't been impressive all year and it's hard to image that they could muster enough firepower to beat even Georgia's struggling defense.? It began to go sour for Tennessee with a poor showing against UCLA and with Alabama, South Carolina and Ole Miss on the schedule for three of the team's next four games, what looked like potentially a .500 or better season early on could result in a 4-8 or 5-7 for the first year head coach.? Georgia 28 - Tennessee 24

Kentucky at South Carolina: The Gamecocks finally hit the Top 25 in one poll after going to 4-1 on the season and get a Kentucky team that has struggled in its last two games.? However, those games were against No. 1 Florida and No. 3 Alabama and while the Florida game wasn't close, the Wildcats were respectable at times against the Crimson Tide.? In fact, to a degree, they gifted that game based on a few breakdowns and turnovers.? A road trip to Alabama looms for Carolina after this game and the Gamecocks may be caught looking ahead to that game.? Kentucky is 2-2 and has the capability to pull an upset here.? However, go with the team that has dominated this series in recent years.? South Carolina 24 - Kentucky 21

Florida at LSU: Another tough pick, especially since Tim Tebow's status is in question.? It's unlikely the senior quarterback will be up to full strength - and if nothing else - affected by missed practices since sustaining a concussion two weeks ago.? The Bengal Tigers pulled a shocker in Athens last week but have been flirting with a loss for at two or more of their games this season.? Still, it's No. 4 against No. 1 and the makings of a terrific night game in Baton Rouge.? This would be an easy pick with a healthy Tebow, but without him at full strength, LSU certainly has the firepower to pull an upset here.? It could come down to who's the best head coach, and the money is on Urban Meyer.? Florida 30 - LSU 28

Alabama at Ole Miss: The only thing that Ole Miss fans would like better than to see a prediction of a win here, is an actual win on Saturday.? What looked promising for Ole Miss headed into the season doesn't look so easy today.? That's because the Rebels have struggled at times and Alabama, which was expected to be good on defense and special teams, just happens to also be very good on offense.? Home field advantage could help the Rebels, but there will be a large contingent of Alabama fans who likely will have their moments to be vocal themselves.? It's simple - if the Rebels play the way they did in the first three games and the second half of the Vanderbilt game, this contest won't be close.? If they don't have turnovers, and improve from a decent effort at Vanderbilt last week, they have a chance.? Expect a close game and one that could be decided in the fourth quarter, but give it to Alabama based on the intangibles.? Alabama 27 - Ole Miss 24

Last week: 6-1
Overall: 34-6
Ole Miss picks: 3-1

Power rankings:

SEC East: Florida (1), South Carolina (2), Georgia (3),? Tennessee , Vanderbilt and Kentucky (tie for 4)

SEC West: Alabama (1), Auburn (2),? LSU (3), Ole Miss (4), Arkansas (5) and Miss. State (6)

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