No. 7 Kentucky and No. 14 Ole Miss, a pair of unbeaten teams with desires to compete on the national stage, square off Saturday at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (11 a.m., ESPN).
CatsIllustrated.com publisher Justin Rowland and I exchanged five questions and answers this week to preview the showdown in Oxford between the Wildcats and the Rebels.
Neal McCready: 1. Kentucky is No. 7 in the latest AP Top 25 as it prepares to head to Oxford Saturday. How big of a moment is this for the program and for Mark Stoops?
Justin Rowland: Games like this definitely haven't come around too often for Kentucky fans, but I think they're getting more used to it. You think back to the 2007 season when they beat LSU and climbed into the top 10 but ultimately didn't have the depth and talent on defense to turn that into a great season. Then back in 2018 they played Georgia late in the season in Lexington for the SEC East title. What's different this time is Kentucky has stuck around in the top 10 for a couple of weeks. The schedule has set up so they can enjoy it a little bit. But now that ranking is put to the test. If Kentucky goes on the road and knocks off Ole Miss, it may be one of the most important moments of SEC and national validation that Kentucky has had in the last half-century.
In a sign of how the expectations have raised, you have more fans who are finding things to critique in spite of the ranking, so they're starting to think more like an SEC fan base as they've enjoyed more success.
Neal McCready: 2. Will Levis is drawing some first-round NFL Draft buzz. What have you seen from him this season and is the proverbial straw that stirs the drink for not just the offense but also for the team?
Justin Rowland: The draft talk is not surprising. On Tuesday, Todd McShay said CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, and Will Levis are the clear cut top-three draft prospects from this class.
He has always had an impressive combination of traits and attributes. He's physical, a fiery competitor, bounces back from mistakes, has shown clutch play in important moments, has a strong arm, can run well enough (or run you over), and has a super quick release. The areas for improvement have been not locking onto a receiver (which was easy to do last season with Wan'Dale Robinson) and avoiding turnovers. He hasn't eliminated the turnovers this year and some of the sacks have been his fault. I've always felt like Levis is more of a sledgehammer than a scalpel but that's not a criticism. Whatever he lacks in that fine detail you see in some other quarterbacks he makes up for in sheer force of will and the ability to hit spots all over the field that many others can't.
The main thing is Levis carries himself like a professional. He's super sharp, doesn't get down on his teammates, and leads like the future face of a franchise. Whether that happens for him or not, time will tell. But he has most of the things you want in a quarterback.
Neal McCready: 3. We've read where Chris Rodriguez is returning this week following his suspension. Kentucky has struggled to run the ball thus far. Does Rodriguez change that or is the problem an offensive line issue?
Justin Rowland: He is certainly an upgrade at the running back position. Coming into the year we thought Kentucky had so much depth in the backfield that it would never be strained. Then JuTahn McClain went down with a minor injury and transfer back Ramon Jefferson was lost for the season after only two plays. Kentucky has managed to get to 4-0 without Rodriguez, but this is a guy who could still contend for the program's career rushing record.
The big thing that the coaches have always loved about Rodriguez is he just does not take many negative yardage plays. He's very hard for one person to bring down. What is a minus-2-yard run for many backs turns into a four-yard gain for Rodriguez, so he does an excellent job of keeping them ahead of the sticks, and he's tough to bring down at the second level.
The run blocking has been a serious issue this year, even more than the protection. So while Rodriguez will help them some, unless the line improves the run game of the last few years isn't walking through that door. As good as Rodriguez can be, he has had ball security issues and he can't afford to put it on the turf this weekend.
Neal McCready: 4. Kentucky has really struggled on the road against SEC West opponents, and that's putting it nicely. Most of that has been against Mississippi State, but still, it makes one wonder. In your opinion, is there something to that and is that something that lingers in the back of the Wildcats' heads as they head to Ole Miss?
Justin Rowland: When I look at overall numbers for Stoops like this, I usually throw out the first few years. Really, there have been three parts to the Stoops era. The first three years they didn't have nearly as much talent as they have now and didn't make a bowl game. Then the two years after that, '16 and '17, they got to the postseason but were still really flawed. They've taken another step up starting in 2018 when the overall depth of talent on the roster really picked up and has been sustained ... but still, they haven't had that big SEC West road win.
They went to overtime against Texas A&M in '18. They lost to Mississippi State on the road in '19 when they didn't have a healthy quarterback. They had to go play Alabama on the road missing almost two dozen players due to COVID protocols in '20. Last year, they started strong in Starkville but turnovers added up and they couldn't recover.
Long story short, "10-0" looks bad, and it has been bad. But the SEC West has been really good, and for a lot of those years, Kentucky wasn't very good. Even if we're only talking about a few games that can easily be explained in recent years, the point remains. Ole Miss is one of those really good SEC West teams that will presumably play well at home.
One thing I'll say is watch how the last five minutes before halftime go. When Kentucky has handled that stretch in the middle of the game well, they have typically exerted their will on opponents in the second half. Too often, even good starts have been squandered as halftime has approached in those SEC West road games.
Neal McCready: 5. How do you see the game playing out, and if you don't mind, what's your prediction?
Justin Rowland: It's hard to tell for a number of reasons. How much has Ole Miss held back? Is Dart the kind of quarterback who can handle the kind of defense Kentucky throws at teams? Typically, the QBs who fare best against Kentucky's defense are those who are accurate, heady, and willing to take the five- or six-yard check downs and short routes that take a long time to score on, moreso than teams that rely on explosives in the passing game. I'm sure Ole Miss is going to rush for its share of yards, but Kentucky has four really good linebackers and if the Rebels are one-dimensional, it's anybody's game.
I haven't decided what my final prediction will be yet, but right now I'm thinking this game will be similar to some recent Ole Miss-UK games, which is to say high scoring and exciting. Ole Miss is a seven-point favorite and I think the opening line (-4) looks more accurate than since it has ballooned to a touchdown.
Bottom line, if Kentucky's offensive line was at the level it has been at the past few years, I'd pick Kentucky to win, but it's not so I understand why Ole Miss is the favorite.
Justin Rowland: 1. Ole Miss has brought in a lot of transfers on the defensive side of the ball. It seems like this might be an improved unit, but how improved? What's your read on how different things look with the new faces against the less daunting part of the schedule so far?
Neal McCready: It’s a great question. Until this past Saturday against Tulsa, I was starting to think this defense could be elite. They were very active up front, linebackers were flashing, the safeties were getting downhill and the cornerbacks were on lockdown mode. Central Arkansas scored three points, and that was three more than Georgia Tech scored.
Then Tulsa happened. The Golden Hurricane had a couple of touchdown drives early with their starting quarterback, Davis Brin, before he was injured. Then the backup rallied them for a late field goal and 10 third-quarter points. The defensive line got 10 hurries but no sacks, linebackers missed some tackles, receivers got free, etc.
And you’re right. There are so many new faces on all three levels. The Rebels really need JJ Pegues, the Auburn transfer who missed the Tulsa game, back. They need linebacker Khari Coleman, a TCU transfer who also didn’t play against Tulsa, back in the lineup as well. They need a finisher off the edge and they need to be more consistent defending the middle of the field.
I think it’s a really good defense. I still do, but the performance against Tulsa lent me a moment’s pause. Saturday against Levis and Co. is a big litmus test.
Justin Rowland: 2. The Rebels have some star power at running back. What have you seen from those guys this season?
Neal McCready: Zach Evans, the talented transfer from TCU and former five-star recruit, has been terrific. He’s rushed 59 times for 365 yards and four touchdowns. He’s shown an incredible boost to the outside, elite shiftiness and cutting in the middle of the field and the ability to punish defenders. Something to watch: Evans came out Saturday and didn’t return. There have been rumblings of a hip pointer, though Lane Kiffin doesn’t discuss injuries.
Quinshon Judkins, a freshman who somehow got out of Alabama, has arguably been even better. He’s rushed 70 times for 429 yards and five scores. His vision has drawn rare praise from Kiffin, and he loves to initiate contact with defensive backs. He’s a beast.
Justin Rowland: 3. Mark Stoops seemed reluctant to say Ole Miss has been one dimensional this year on Monday, hinting that maybe they've played things close to the vest. What's your take on that and how Jaxson Dart looks throwing the ball?
Neal McCready: Here’s the thing. For all the success Ole Miss has had running the ball, one can’t help but think Stoops might be on to something. Maybe Ole Miss has been intentionally vanilla. Maybe they’re keeping stuff off film. Then again, maybe not.
Ole Miss has been breaking in two young quarterbacks. The receiver corps has not been as deep as they’d hoped. One tight end, Casey Kelly, isn’t a great receiver. The other, USC transfer Michael Trigg, is an elite receiver who needs to develop as a blocker.
The quarterback who has finally won the job, USC transfer Jaxson Dart, has been solid as a passer, completing 51 of 82 passes for 697 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. His decision-making has improved, as has his deep ball. He’s going to be a very good quarterback. I have to think Kentucky is going to want to make Dart win the game Saturday.
Justin Rowland: 4. What's the health of the team right now? Are there any players expected to be out and how much will their absence impact the game?
Neal McCready: I mentioned Pegues, Coleman and Evans already. Center Caleb Warren is battling a nagging injury. He exited at halftime Saturday, forcing guard Eli Acker to move to center and pushing Mason Brooks, a Western Kentucky transfer who was signed to be the right tackle, to right guard. Those absences hurt Ole Miss against Tulsa. They’d likely be very costly against Kentucky.
Justin Rowland: 5. Any feeling on how this game plays out and how the teams match up?
Neal McCready: I’ve been pointing at this game for at least six months. It’s a battle of two surging programs, at least in my opinion. I think Levis is going to challenge Ole Miss’ secondary, and how the Rebels pressure him is going to be critical. I am fascinated to see how Kentucky’s running game looks against Ole Miss. Meanwhile, I suspect Kentucky is going to look to put the game in Dart’s hands. It just seems inevitable.
I think the line is a bit high. I think — and I stress the word “think” — Ole Miss should win, but I believe it’s going to be very close, something along the lines of 21-17 or so.
