Five Things: Ole Miss
If the Bears win this game, they’re going to a bowl. There’s still Oregon State and Arizona on the schedule, and if they can get those, all they would have to do after that is steal a game they shouldn’t have. Only one.
And if you want to throw out all the data from last week’s game, I get it. It was a sleepwalk of a game reminiscent of the most Dykes of days, and maybe if you’re being generous, you can excuse it as them looking ahead a bit. Who knows. I sure don’t.
Here’s this week’s Five Things to Watch against Ole Miss.
1) The Cal DBs against Damarkus Lodge, Dekaylin Metcalf, AJ Brown and company.
This is THE thing that fascinates me the most for Saturday night. Will Cal’s new look, newly improved secondary run with the elites, considering the breakdowns last week? Will they hang with faces too familiar from recruiting cycles past? There’s some reason for optimism considering their growth against a decent receiver group of their own here at Cal, but it’ll still be crucial to see how Gerald Alexander’s charges handle their first major test, particularly after what happened last week. If they can hold up well out here, maybe we get that crucial half second they need to hem in Shea Patterson. The health of Jaylinn Hawkins looms large.
2) Containment
Which, speaking of…Shea Patterson lost his redshirt deep into the 2016 season, yet despite that less than ideal start to his career, is proving to be as deadly as feared. He hasn’t run for a large amount of yardage yet in 2017, but the reports all say his legs are there, and part of how they spy and harass him – if we are able to spy and harass him – will decide the game. If Patterson gets comfortable, that unlocks a whole host of run-pass stressors, plus will lead to us losing the above matchup.
3) Mystery vs Mystery
Watching tape on this Ole Miss team is somewhat useless – they’ve had two tuneups against FCS competition til now, letting their inferior competition hang around for a half each week (UT Martin was within two after two quarters and averaged close to 6 YPP), which might mean they’re actually not great…or it might mean nothing.
Regardless, they have undoubtedly holding their “real” stuff, their pressure packages, gadgets, or special looks in anticipation of this game, and of course, our coaching staff has known this and has prepared accordingly. But since the Bears will be playing with house money and from the underdog position, they have every reason to go for a high-variance type strategy, although I’m not yet sure what form that’ll take under this staff exactly – I just anticipate that whatever wrinkles unveiled by both sides will end up being a key factor. Better wrinkles win, and what not.
4) Red Zone/Trips inside the 40
It’s standard boilerplate game analysis to say that the team that converts redzone possessions at the best rate has a good chance of victory. It’s particularly important to get 7s, not 3s when you’re an underdog, and the Bears will be playing a Phil Longo offense that is simply deadly in the red zone. Although this is his first year at Ole Miss, Longo’s Sam Houston State Bearkats reached paydirt 80% of the time inside the 20, which was tops in the country, and remains a threat anywhere on the field – they registered two 70 yard touchdowns against South Alabama, and another 50+ against UT Martin. Getting one stop, maybe two, while converting all of their own is more essential than ever for the . It could end up being the margin.
5) Ole Miss Havoc
Despite losing a good chunk of their front 7 to the draft and graduation, against South Alabama, the retooled Rebels forced 16% Havoc rate (6 TFL, 4 PD, 1 FF) on 68 plays, and against UT Martin, it was…also 16% (8 TFL, 1 INT, 1 PD) on 61 plays. These are considered above average marks for that stat, although through two weeks, the Cal line has been decent and the gameplans have led to the ball getting out quickly. How Beau Baldwin decides to create protection against the Rebels and what he’s able to scheme up to keep Ross Bowers comfortable will be key, because if the visitors produce anywhere close to 16% again, the Bears will likely fall without too much trouble.
Astute, sharp-eyed readers will notice that UNC produced the same mark too, but I do not see this as the same – the Tar Heels lacked the same type of playmakers and quarterback Ole Miss will bring with them. They don’t have the luxury of getting behind the chains or going dry for a quarter this time.