McCready: 10 Weekend Thoughts presented by Harry Alexander
1. If you had Nov. 10 as the date the NCAA sanctions against Ole Miss’ football program would be announced, you lose.
Oh, and welcome to my team.
I thought they’d come last week. It’s been almost nine weeks now, and let’s face it, the Committee on Infractions isn’t still sitting around debating. The verdict has been determined. Now it’s just a waiting game.
This week, the wait officially gets interesting. Let’s play this out. If the sanctions don’t come this week, what’s the timetable? Next week is the week of Thanksgiving. In the real world, not much work gets done in the days leading up to that holiday. Schools are out. Vacations happen. Everyone goes to Grandma’s house, eats turkey and pumpkin pie and then heads out to Nordstroms or Wal-Mart or Best Buy or whatnot to start the Christmas shopping season.
Maybe the sanctions come in the short week leading up to Turkey Day, but I sincerely doubt it.
Ole Miss, you might have heard, plays its final game of the season on Thanksgiving night in Starkville, Mississippi. Win or lose, the Rebels’ season ends that night. Effective the next morning, Ole Miss athletics director Ross Bjork is on the clock. The word in the coaching industry is he’d like to move quickly in his quest to name a permanent coach to replace Hugh Freeze, who resigned in July.
Can Bjork make a hire if the sanctions aren’t known? Some in the coaching industry say he can. Others aren’t so sure. Even Bjork, I suspect, would admit that scenario is problematic.
Look, no one knows when the sanctions are coming down. Repeat: No one knows. Maybe it’s this week and this entire entry is moot. However, if they don’t come this week, things get dicey for Bjork and Ole Miss.
The word in the coaching industry is Bjork is prepared to pay what it takes to make a strong hire. Everyone, including the coaching industry and, presumably, the COI, knows if the sanctions are severe, the corresponding litigation from involved parties will be as well. Further, there are media outlets who know what happened during that two-day hearing in Covington, Kentucky, back in September. It’s not a matter of if media report on what they know. It’s a matter of when.
Yahoo’s Pat Forde reported before the COI hearing even began that the verdict wouldn’t come down until the Ole Miss-Mississippi State game is in the history books. At the time, people ridiculed Forde’s report. We’re approaching the point where those of us who scoffed at it might need to smoke a crow in addition to the traditional bird of Thanksgiving.
Make no mistake, a post-Thanksgiving verdict is punitive in and of itself. A new coach will need to assemble a staff quickly, at least address the early signing period and hit the ground running on both the 2018 and 2019 recruiting classes. That will be very difficult, if not downright impossible, if the sanctions aren’t known.
2. So when is it coming? I don’t know. No one knows.
Repeat: No one knows.
I will say this: While 6-8 weeks for a turnaround is common, it’s not the rule. There is no rule (Yes, the irony of that statement, as it pertains to the NCAA, is rich). The USC case involving Reggie Bush had a four-month gap from COI hearing to sanctions being levied.
I was having a conversation with an industry source Sunday who asked me what happens if the sanctions don’t come down until Dec. 10. My initial response was, “That’s ridiculous.” Then I thought, “What if it’s not?”
My guess if that scenario played out is things would get tense and then a little chippy and then downright ugly. For the truth is there’s no justification for the ruling not coming down in the next five days. None. The Ole Miss-Mississippi State rivalry, for a myriad of reasons, is already a disgrace. Holding off on sanctions until after this year’s game is played isn’t saving anyone. The atmosphere is caustic. Nothing is changing that now. The rivalry is poisonous, and it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
Ole Miss has been dealing with this investigation and its fallout since February 2013. It’s been almost five years. The verdict has been determined. The COI knows the school must deal with an early signing period and it knows Bjork is conducting a coaching search.
I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist. I believe Oswald acted alone. I believe men actually walked on the moon, not a stage in New Mexico or Arizona. However, if this thing gets into the week after Thanksgiving or _ worse _ the first week of December, I won’t have a rational explanation other than to believe the NCAA and the COI have used the calendar to give Ole Miss one final twist of the knife.
3. With the season winding down quickly, the focus is fast turning to the coaching search. The campaign to take the interim tag off Matt Luke’s title is going strong after consecutive wins over Kentucky and Louisiana-Lafayette and will only intensify if Ole Miss beats Texas A&M Saturday night.
Does Luke have a chance? I still believe Bjork is going to want to put his own stamp on the program, and frankly, I believe the campaign will hurt Luke more than it helps him. However, if you told me some of the pessimism regarding the arrival of sanctions was accurate and the search was impacted detrimentally, I suppose I would start to believe the viability of Luke’s candidacy. We’re a long way from there at this point, however.
People ask me what I’m hearing. Here’s the truth: There’s not much to hear. Bjork is conducting the search with very little outside help, and that’s keeping leaks to a minimal/non-existent level. There is buzz in the coaching industry, however, and while I don’t really have any contacts in Oxford, I still have some across the country and inside the coaching business.
Two new names surfaced over the weekend. Frankly, neither are all that believable. West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen is under contract through 2021, making between $3.5 million and $4 million. His buyout ranges from $1 million to $3 million, depending on departure date. Still, Holgorsen’s name has popped up in conversations for the better part of the last week. Holgorsen, 46, has been at West Virginia since 2011. He’s 53-34 overall, 32-27 in league play. The Mountaineers are 7-3, 5-2 so far this season after winning at Kansas State Saturday.
Another name that popped up in conversations with industry sources over the weekend is that of North Carolina State coach Dave Doeren. The 45-year-old Kansas native was 23-4 in two seasons at Northern Illinois before taking over at N.C. State in 2013. He’s 33-29 in Raleigh, and the Wolfpack are 7-3 so far this season. Doeren makes around $2.4 million per year at N.C. State.
What else have I heard? I’ve heard a lot more rumbling about Memphis’ Mike Norvell, though I suspect he’ll be a strong candidate at Arkansas as well. Troy’s Neal Brown is rising, per industry sources, as is Colorado State’s Mike Bobo. I’ve heard less about UTSA’s Frank Wilson in recent weeks and I’ve heard there are questions about USF’s Charlie Strong being able to be the face of an SEC program at this point in his life. Again, I could be wrong, but I’d bet on Norvell, Brown and Bobo being real candidates right now.
Here’s a little life advice/nugget of wisdom to keep in mind over the coming weeks:
In the absence of news, rumors will fill the void.
You’re welcome.
4. Ole Miss defeated Louisiana-Lafayette, 50-22, Saturday in Oxford. We usually have a Strategic Partners and Media Player of the Game feature following wins (and some losses). On Saturday, however, we were a cameraman short. Had we done the feature, the recipient would’ve been wide receiver A.J. Brown. Brown caught 14 passes for 185 yards and two touchdowns Saturday and he talked about his performance and more after the game.
5. The quarterback making those throws to Brown was once again Jordan Ta’amu, who continues to wow since taking over for injured Shea Patterson.
Ta’amu was 28-for-36 for 418 yards, three touchdowns and one interception on Saturday. Ta’amu added seven rushes for 13 yards and two scores. He talked about his game and more Saturday afternoon.
6. Ole Miss’ defense continued to struggle against Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin’ Cajuns rolled up 427 yards on offense Saturday, including 228 on the ground.
Tackling remains an issue, and things are about to get more difficult with strong rushing teams Texas A&M and Mississippi State on the upcoming slate.
After Saturday’s game, defensive lineman Breeland Speaks and linebacker Tayler Polk discussed the Rebels’ defensive challenges over the final 11 days of the season.
7. It’s time for my weekly SEC rankings, the first without Butch Jones to pick on.
1. Alabama — All Jalen Hurts does is win.
2. Auburn — An Iron Bowl for all the marbles? I’m intrigued.
3. Georgia — The Bulldogs were brought to earth on Saturday, but their SEC title dreams are very much alive.
4. Mississippi State — If I’m Tennessee, I’m offering Dan Mullen the job the Friday after Thanksgiving.
5. South Carolina — Will Muschamp got $800,000 from Florida Saturday to beat Florida. How was your day? His was better.
6. Missouri — Seriously.
7. LSU — The Tigers rolled Arkansas, surviving the post-Alabama-loss hangover that always hit Les Miles.
8. Ole Miss — The Rebels should be 7-3 right now, even with a porous defense. Think about that a minute; I assure you Matt Luke has.
9. Texas A&M — I might have the Aggies a spot low. We’ll find out Saturday night.
10. Kentucky — The Wildcats whipped Vanderbilt. I’m embarrassed I missed that one. I did call Auburn over Georgia, however. So it’s a wash.
11. Arkansas — The Hogs beat Ole Miss. I know; I was there. I saw it. Still, that is a team spiraling downward.
12. Florida — The Gators are 3-6. Somebody’s going to have his hands full.
13. Vanderbilt — The Commodores were whipped by Kentucky. Welcome to the 2018 hot seat, Derek Mason.
14. Tennessee — The Vols hit rock bottom Saturday.
8. I don’t have an Associated Press Top 25 ballot, for I apparently both love and hate Ole Miss too much to be objective. If I had a ballot, however, mine would look like this today:
1. Alabama
2. Miami
3. Wisconsin
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson
6. Auburn
7. Georgia
8. UCF
9. Ohio State
10. Oklahoma State
11. USC
12. TCU
13. Notre Dame
14. Penn State
15. Washington State
16. Washington
17. Stanford
18. Mississippi State
19. Memphis
20. Michigan
21. LSU
22. Northwestern
23. USF
24. Michigan State
25. West Virginia
9. Ole Miss opened its season Friday night with an impressive win over Louisiana-Lafayette. The Rebels are home for two games this week _ Monday at 5:30 p.m. against Eastern Kentucky and Friday at 6 p.m. against Georgia State _ before hitting the road for a pair of critical non-conference games in Las Vegas next week.
Ole Miss looked impressive in its win against the Ragin’ Cajuns, getting a huge double-double from Marcanvis Hymon to go with a ton of strong guard play from Breein Tyree, Markell Crawford, Terence Davis, Devontae Shuler and Deandre Burnett.
Andy Kennedy’s team is deep (for now), versatile and really active in the halfcourt on defense. The Rebels will look to improve on transition defense this week before meeting Utah on Nov. 20 in Las Vegas. They’ll also look to get some of the rust off Drake transfer Dominik Olejniczak, who wasn’t particularly impactful in the win over Louisiana-Lafayette.
Oh, and while the sample size is incredibly small, the SEC looks strong early. An 11-7 league mark (maybe even 10-8), provided Ole Miss takes care of business in the non-league, will likely be enough to earn Andy Kennedy’s team its third NCAA tournament bid in the last six years.
Of course, that’s getting way ahead of ourselves, but at least early on, the story lines around this Ole Miss team are compelling.
10. We'll have complete coverage of a plethora of Ole Miss sports this week, starting with Matt Luke's weekly press conference Monday, concluding with the Rebels' Saturday night date with Texas A&M and including whatever may come between those two events.
In the meantime, here are some links of interest to me _ and hopefully to you _ for your reading pleasure:
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