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Published Nov 23, 2023
Neal's Picks, presented by Service Specialists: Week 13
Neal McCready  •  RebelGrove
Publisher

NEAL'S PICKS PALATIAL HEADQUARTERS -- Happy Thanksgiving.

We'll save the silly snark that's usually in this space and instead wish all of you and your families a very happy Turkey Day and a wonderful start to the holiday season.

I am thankful for all of you for supporting our work here at RebelGrove.com and at MPW Digital. Obviously, without you, it's not possible.

We'll return to the snark in this space next week, likely making fun of some coaching hires or some disastrous losses this weekend. We'll make fun of the CFP four-team model, one that is remarkably stupid but somehow resistant to the chaos it deserves. We'll make fun of the automatic bid for a G5 team, an idea the fearless leaders who run college football are threatening to double down on next season when we shift to a more sensible, far more exciting 12-team model.

But for now, let's just save all of that and enjoy Thanksgiving. And seriously, thank you for supporting the site and being a part of -- and not apart from -- our community.

On to the picks...

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Standings

Last Week:

Neal McCready: 11-1 overall, 5-5 ATS

Chase Parham: 9-3 overall, 6-4 ATS

Jeffrey Wright: 9-3 overall, 5-5 ATS

Brian Rippee: 10-2 overall, 5-5 ATS

Michael Luker: 11-1 overall, 5-5 ATS

For The Season:

Neal McCready: 103-26 overall, 60-56 ATS

Chase Parham: 103-26 overall, 57-59 ATS

Jeffrey Wright: 102-27 overall, 61-55 ATS

Brian Rippee: 99-30 overall, 59-57 ATS

Michael Luker: 104-25 overall, 51-65 ATS

All times listed Central Standard Time

All rankings via Associated Press

All betting lines via DraftKings

Thursday game

No. 12 Ole Miss -12 at Mississippi State, 6:30 p.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: Someone call the fun police. I'll be waiting peacefully at the front door when they arrive. I don't subscribe to the "It's a rivalry game; throw out the record books" theory. Like, not at all. Sure, upsets happen, but that's not limited to rivalries. That's part of sports. I've seen both of these teams in person and Ole Miss is better. It's not particularly close. Can Ole Miss lose to MSU? Sure. Absolutely. If Ole Miss plays well, protects the football and executes, however, the Rebels are considerably better. Neal's Pick: Ole Miss 33, Mississippi State 17

Chase Parham: I think the line is a touch too big. Unless Ole Miss just decides to throw up on itself, it's going to win the game. I won't be surprised if the first half is a little sleepy and close, though. Just a hunch. It's not like I've been killing it this season. Parham's Pick: Ole Miss 24, MSU 13

Jeffrey Wright: Road favorites in SEC play are 12-5 ATS. What makes this game uncomfortable is the question of the Rebels health, particularly on the offensive line. However, I am going to trust my gut on Ole Miss play this year because I’ve had them pegged pretty well. I think Ole Miss wins pretty easily. WRIGHT’S PICK: OLE MISS 34, MISSISSIPPI STATE 17

Brian Rippee: Mississippi State doesn't cover against anyone. The Bulldogs wouldn't have covered last week against Southern Miss if not for a fortuitous pick six late in the game. While I do believe Ole Miss' injury issues on the offensive line are a valid concern, I don't really make much of last week's sleepy performance. The Rebels should have no problem winning this game handily. Rippee's Pick: Ole Miss 35, Mississippi State 10

Michael Luker: I get that this is a rivalry game and emotions will be high, but Ole Miss is the better team here and it's not really close. I'm not going to overthink it. Luker’s Pick: Ole Miss 31 Mississippi State 17

Friday's games

No. 10 Missouri -7 at Arkansas, 3 p.m. CBS

Neal McCready: You guys will hate me by the end of this piece. Missouri, while showing some signs of tightness and fatigue last week against Florida, is simply better than Arkansas, and it's not particularly close. If Ole Miss wins Thursday, you'll all be calling the hogs Friday (remember, you say Woo Pie Sooie the first two times and then add "Razorbacks" at the end of the third call; I've done it with the girls a few times), but you're just going to feel frustration. Neal's Pick: Missouri 34, Arkansas 14

Chase Parham: Missouri is better, and I don't think Arkansas rallies around the Sam Pittman vote of confidence. It might actually be the opposite. Everyone likes him; no one believes in him. Parham's Pick: Mizzou 31, Arkansas 20

Jeffrey Wright: I desperately want to take Arkansas in this spot. Missouri should have lost last week, and Arkansas seems like they’re cooked. I’ll stick with the road favorite angle here, and trust that Drinkwitz has some grudge against Arkansas and will run it up. WRIGHT’S PICK: MISSOURI 34, ARKANSAS 20

Brian Rippee: I didn't think Missouri played very well last week and should've lost the game. But I still think the Tigers are miles better than an Arkansas team that I cannot bank on even showing up on a weekly basis. Rippee's Pick: Missouri 31, Arkansas 17

Michael Luker: Missouri feels like they're running out of gas, but I can't willingly bet on this Arkansas team. Luker’s Pick: Missouri 31 Arkansas 20


No. 15 Oregon State +14 at No. 6 Oregon, 7:30 p.m., FOX

Neal McCready: Oregon knows it needs style points. Bo Nix needs a huge day to win the Heisman. Oregon State can play spoiler, sure, but Jonathan Smith is likely leaving the the Pac-12 is splitting up. As much as we would like karma to spoil the Ducks' season in this edition of the Uncivil War, I think Oregon rolls. Neal's Pick: Oregon 41, Oregon State 24

Chase Parham: I'm sorry, Jeffrey. It feels like I'm committing a sin. Bo Nix succeeding always makes me laugh. Parham's Pick: Oregon 44, Oregon State 27

Jeffrey Wright: Oregon State hasn’t lost a game by more than three points this entire season, and just because they haven’t been the covering machine that they’ve been previously, doesn’t mean I’m going to abandon them. They still have really good big people, and I don’t think Oregon will exert everything possible to blow them out with a de facto Playoff Play-In Game looming next week. WRIGHT’S PICK: OREGON 35, OREGON STATE 24

Brian Rippee: Too many points. Oregon State is a good team that has suffered a couple of close losses. Rippee's Pick: Oregon 34, Oregon State 27

Michael Luker: I like Oregon State, I really do. I think Oregon might take them to the woodshed this weekend. Luker’s Pick: Oregon 38 Oregon State 23

Saturday's games

No. 2 Ohio State +4 at No. 3 Michigan, 11 a.m., FOX

Neal McCready: I usually cheer for Michigan in this game, for some reason. This time around, I'll all Buckeyes. I anticipate being disappointed. Neal's Pick: Michigan 20, Ohio State 13

Chase Parham: Just give me the points. I think Michigan was looking way ahead last week, and both teams bother me. I am rooting for the officials and the sport of football -- not for either team. They are both annoying in their own ways. Parham's Pick: Ohio State 24, Michigan 21

Jeffrey Wright: I’m not going to talk myself out of this game like I did last year. Michigan looked like crap last year against Illinois and still showed up against the Buckeyes last year. Michigan still has better lines of scrimmage and though I don’t love McCarthy, I still trust him more than I do Kyle McCord. WRIGHT’S PICK: MICHIGAN 27, OHIO STATE 20

Brian Rippee: I have not been overly impressed by either of these teams over the second half of the season. I think Michigan has the better defense and, while its a bit of a low bar, the better quarterback too. The Wolverines are becoming a fascinating villain in college football. Rippee's Pick: Michigan 20, Ohio State 14

Michael Luker: I've honestly been unimpressed with Ohio State this year. As much as I hate it, I think Michigan wins the game. The whole "Michigan against the world" crap has gotten really old. Ironic coming from an Astros fan, I guess. Luker’s Pick: Michigan 27 Ohio State 24



Kentucky +7 at No. 9 Louisville, 11 a.m., ABC

Neal McCready: All of the action on UK has me spooked a bit here, but I can't bet on the Wildcats at this point. Neal's Pick: Louisville 27, Kentucky 17

Chase Parham: Louisville has a crap schedule and isn't as good as its record. Kentucky doesn't have an identity and is a shell of its normal physical self. As much as this pains me... Parham's Pick: UL 34, UK 24

Jeffrey Wright: The SEC out-of-conference record against other Power 5 leagues has not been good this year. The SEC is 3-9 ATS, and Kentucky is 0-4 ATS and straight up as an underdog this season. I have to wonder if Stoops has his eyes on another job. I’ll take the Cardinals. WRIGHT’S PICK: LOUISVILLE 31, KENTUCKY 20

Brian Rippee: This line makes no sense even if you're not a believer in Louisville. I have no real logic for this pick other my desire to outsmart myself. Rippee's Pick: Louisville 24, Kentucky 20

Michael Luker: Am I missing something here? This Kentucky team isn't good. This Louisville team is good. Let's not make this overly complicated. Luker’s Pick: Louisville 31 Kentucky 21


Texas A&M +10.5 at No. 14 LSU, 11 a.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: Texas A&M is pretty solid on defense and good enough offensively to hang with LSU. I like the Tigers to win, but I'll take all of those points. Neal's Pick: LSU 37, Texas A&M 27

Chase Parham: Texas A&M is the play in my head, but I'm going with Jayden Daniels. I'm just not sure the Aggies will care like the normally do here. Parham's Pick: LSU 45, TAMU 30

Jeffrey Wright: I’ll play with fire here a little bit. I still don’t trust LSU’s defense, and A&M always seems to get up for this game. WRIGHT’S PICK: LSU 38, TEXAS A&M 31

Brian Rippee: LSU won't lose this game but the Tigers' defense won't allow them to run away with it. Texas A&M's defense is very good and its offense isn't completely inept. I like the Aggies a lot in this spot. Rippee's Pick: LSU 34, Texas A&M 30

Michael Luker: Jayden Daniels needs one more big weekend to secure the Heisman. I'm not sure Texas A&M will be able to score enough to keep up with them despite how bad LSU's defense is. Luker’s Pick: LSU 38 Texas A&M 27


No. 8 Alabama -14.5 at Auburn, 2:30 p.m., CBS

Neal McCready: I've covered this game at least 10 times. The better team won at least nine of those games. That history will repeat itself. Alabama is rolling. Neal's Pick: Alabama 38, Auburn 10

Chase Parham: This being somewhat sluggish and boring wouldn't shock me. This is probably being very dumb, but with Georgia the next week and Hugh looking to claim a moral victory, I think it's possible some late score messes the line up here. Parham's Pick: Alabama 34, Auburn 20

Jeffrey Wright: In nine games as a home underdog, Auburn is 5-4 ATS in those games, but three-of-the-four covers were outright wins. Therefore, my logic is unless I think Auburn can win, I’ll just lay them. My only fear in this game is not Hugh Freeze magic, although he is the king of smoke and mirrors, rather my fear is that Alabama has a much bigger game next week. WRIGHT’S PICK: ALABAMA 38, AUBURN 17

Brian Rippee: I think the conclusion we can all come to after last week is simple: Auburn's assistants have be better. Hugh Freeze cannot do it all by himself. They need to match his expertise and core values. I just wonder why Freeze wasn't as involved with the play calling last week as he has been in their wins? Auburn has no shot here. Rippee's Pick: Alabama 41, Auburn 13

Michael Luker: Alabama. By a lot. Luker’s Pick: Alabama 34 Auburn 13

Vanderbilt +25 at No. 25 Tennessee, 2:30 p.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: I'm just not betting Vanderbilt, no matter what. Neal's Pick: Tennessee 49, Vanderbilt 13

Chase Parham: Tennessee routs bad teams. It's a fact. Write it down. Parham's Pick: UT 48, Vandy 17

Jeffrey Wright: I’ll go square here. Tennessee at home against a bad opponent is just a system play. WRIGHT’S PICK: TENNESSEE 45, VANDERBILT 17

Brian Rippee: I don't love the Vols' offense, but what's the alternative here. Rippee's Pick: Tennessee 48, Vanderbilt 10

Michael Luker: I feel bad for Clark Lea. I really do. Luker’s Pick: Tennessee 56 Vanderbilt 14

No. 5 Florida State -6 at Florida, 6 p.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: Both teams are down to their backup quarterbacks, which makes me a little tempted to roll with the Gators. The CFP committee usually gets bailed out. Neal's Pick: Florida State 24, Florida 23

Chase Parham: Oh, what the hell. Chaos will be fun. I liked the UF backup's competitiveness last weekend. He can play for me. FSU will feel some anxiety here. Parham's Pick: Florida 20, FSU 17

Jeffrey Wright: Let’s get weird. Florida is just 1-6 ATS and straight up against Florida State as a home underdog. However, I just don’t love the thought of Tate Rodamker making his first start of the year on the road in Gainesville with Florida’s playing for bowl eligibility with a coach that desperately needs a win. I think this game will be fairly low-scoring to protect both backup quarterbacks, so I’ll take the points. WRIGHT’S PICK: FLORIDA STATE 20, FLORIDA 17

Brian Rippee: What's the square play here? Taking a bad Florida team because Florida State lost its quarterback? Or is it taking FSU to cover six points with a backup QB? I think it's the former rather than the latter. I keep asking what happens if Florida does indeed finish 5-7, and if a coaching change would prompt another Kiffin saga, but no one wants to entertain the subject. Rippee's Pick: Florida State 31, Florida 13

Michael Luker: I'm really tempted to take the points here with Jordan Travis being out. I know Florida State is the better team on paper, but I see this game being really close without him. Luker’s Pick: FSU 27 Florida 24

No. 1 Georgia -23 at Georgia Tech, 6:30 p.m., ABC

Neal McCready: Much respect to Brent Key and the Jackets. However, they're going to get mauled Saturday night. Neal's Pick: Georgia 45, Georgia Tech 17

Chase Parham: Congrats to Tech for getting bowl eligible. It's truly a good coaching job this season, and I like Haynes King. I feel sorry for him Saturday though. Parham's Pick: Georgia 44, Tech 13

Jeffrey Wright: I’m adding the Bulldogs to #TheSystem. WRIGHT’S PICK: GEORGIA 38, GEORGIA TECH 10

Brian Rippee: Georgia has steadily emerged as the best team in the country by a long shot. Rippee's Pick: Georgia 45, Georgia Tech 10

Michael Luker: Brent Key has done a great job this year at Georgia Tech. Unfortunately it will not help them this weekend. Luker’s Pick: Georgia 42 Georgia Tech 17

Clemson -7 at South Carolina, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: Clemson has played well lately and likely have this one circled more than usual. South Carolina doesn't have enough. Neal's Pick: Clemson 28, South Carolina 20

Chase Parham: South Carolina annoys me. At the start of the year I thought Beamer was doing a good job and I felt badly for Spencer Rattler. Now Rattler just chose poorly, and Carolina deserves to be mediocre. Parham's Pick: Clemson 30, Carolina 20

Jeffrey Wright: Three-of-four losses for Clemson came against running quarterbacks, and they squandered a late lead against Miami before losing in overtime. I just don’t think South Carolina will block Clemson well enough to hit the shots they did last year. I think Clemson is closer to what they were last year than South Carolina is. I lay the points. WRIGHT’S PICK: CLEMSON 27, SOUTH CAROLINA 17

Brian Rippee: South Carolina's win last week gave them a crack at bowl eligibility at home. Shane Beamer's team has been decimated by injuries, but has the chance to play one more game for one more game. I like the Gamecocks here. Rippee's Pick: South Carolina 27, Clemson 24

Michael Luker: Clemson has played much better as of late, but I just feel like this is a game South Carolina somehow wins. Shane Beamer will be unbearable after this one. Luker’s Pick: South Carolina 31 Clemson 30

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