Neal's Picks, presented by Service Specialists: Week 7
NEAL'S PICKS PALATIAL HEADQUARTERS -- I have grievances.
Missouri had things covered until my guy Eliah went for it on fourth-and-32 instead of punting with all three timeouts remaining.
Ole Miss seemed ready to cover until my guy Kiffin went for it at midfield, turning momentum in Arkansas' favor.
Texas A&M was in good shape until my guy Jimbo decided that his team would fold under pressure.
None of it was my fault, of course. It's always someone else's fault. I'm really steering into that this week, knowing what I'll be writing and talking about a week from now. It's not my fault. But if things go well, it's because I kicked the interns to the curb and got involved on the picks myself. That's just how it works.
This week, we're trying some new interns. Ask me Sunday how they prepared for this week's picks. I won't be able to tell you until the results are in.
Yes, I know the season is getting away from me. Yes, I know Wright and Rippee are beginning to run away with things. Like I said, it's not my fault.
On to the picks...
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Standings
Last Week:
Neal McCready: 5-5 overall, 3-7 ATS
Chase Parham: 7-3 overall, 5-5 ATS
Jeffrey Wright: 7-3 overall, 6-4 ATS
Brian Rippee: 7-3 overall, 5-5 ATS
Michael Luker: 7-3 overall, 2-8 ATS
For The Season:
Neal McCready: 55-18 overall, 25-36 ATS
Chase Parham: 58-15 overall, 28-33 ATS
Jeffrey Wright: 61-12 overall, 32-29 ATS
Brian Rippee: 58-15 overall, 32-29 ATS
Michael Luker: 56-17 overall, 22-39 ATS
All games Saturday
All times listed Central Daylight Time
All rankings via Associated Press
All betting lines via DraftKings
No. 1 Georgia -32.5 at Vanderbilt, 11 a.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: I don't have The System, but I know I am not betting on Vanderbilt ever again. Will it hurt me eventually? Sure. Will this strategy work the majority of the time? You bet. Neal's Pick: Georgia 45, Vanderbilt 7
Chase Parham: For my own mental sanity, Georgia is the only play here. It's a lot of points and blah blah blah and sure the Bulldogs can sleepwalk through this, but having Vanderbilt is some psychotic stuff. Parham's Pick: Georgia 45, Vandy 6
Jeffrey Wright: Georgia finally looked like Georgia last week, and I think we’re reaching the point where Georgia, given its weak schedule, might want to start earning some style points as Michigan is doing. Also, Vandy is 0-8 ATS against Top-5 opponents since 2017 and is 0-8 ATS dating back to the final game of last season. WRIGHT’S PICK: GEORGIA 45, VANDERBILT 6
Brian Rippee: Georgia's offense finally rounded into form last week and Vanderbilt has yet to cover a spread this season. So, what does that mean?? Of course it means that this is too obvious and that the Dores somehow pull it off. Rippee's Pick: Georgia 40, Vanderbilt 10
Michael Luker: Vanderbilt is 0-7 against the spread this year. Make it 0-8. Luker's Pick: Georgia 42 Vanderbilt 7
Arkansas +19.5 at No. 11 Alabama, 11 a.m., ESPN
Neal McCready: I'll give Arkansas credit for playing hard, but my God, that offense couldn't be less suited for KJ Jefferson and that offensive line belongs in the FCS. That's not the best equation against Alabama's defense. The Tide might be a little sleepy, but they'll do their thing late. Neal's Pick: Alabama 34, Arkansas 13
Chase Parham: Alabama has found its identity, and while it's relatively flawed, identity and consistency will go a long way in college football. Arkansas is anemic offensively and scoring is going to be the issue. I'm just not sure the Tide will use any emotional energy here. Never in doubt but not a blowout. Parham's Pick: Alabama 34, Arkansas 16
Jeffrey Wright: Alabama has finally started covering some lines. They had to get priced down to the lowest point in roughly 15 years to do so, but they’ve covered nonetheless. Arkansas is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog under Pittman and is 6-1 ATS following its last five losses. I’ll say that it’s a sleepy spot for Alabama following the big road win and with Tennessee up next week. WRIGHT’S PICK: ALABAMA 31, ARKANSAS 17
Brian Rippee: What a brutally tough first half of the schedule for Arkansas. Its last home game was Sept 16. It's next one after that isn't until October 21st. The Hogs play hard and have not yet quit on Sam Pittman. I don't trust Alabama enough yet to cover a line this large. Rippee's Pick: Alabama 31, Arkansas 20
Michael Luker: Alabama didn't play it's best last week, but it certainly feels like their confidence is growing and it also looks like Jalen Milroe is progressing as the weeks move on. On the other hand, Arkansas looks like they're moving backwards. Luker's Pick: Alabama 31 Arkansas 10
No. 8 Oregon +3 at No. 7 Washington, 2:30 p.m., ABC
Neal McCready: The computers favor Oregon by about a touchdown but let's just chat about how cool of a game this is. Michael Penix Jr. versus Bo Nix. The Heisman might hang in the balance. The winner is immediately a favorite to land a CFP spot. Both teams are headed to the Big Ten next year. Storylines galore. The Huskies are very good at home. I just think Oregon is better. We'll see. I hate I'll miss this one live. Neal's Pick: Oregon 37, Washington 35
Chase Parham: I don't know Bo Nix. Never met him. Never covered him. Never talked to him. I'm happy for him though. He's found such a second life and has a damn good football team in Eugene. Parham's Pick: Oregon 41, Washington 35
Jeffrey Wright: Forgive me father for I am about to bet on Bo Nix on the road. However, Road Bo in the Pac-12 is a different animal. Bo is 5-2 ATS at Oregon on the road, and Oregon is 13-5 ATS with Bo. Also, when you look at the matchups, Oregon has the advantage against Washington’s defense, and Oregon has the personnel to take advantage of Washington’s offensive line. I think the wrong team is favored. WRIGHT’S PICK: OREGON 31, WASHINGTON 27
Brian Rippee: The PAC 12's final year as we know it has produced compelling storylines and good football. This game is a showcase of that. I have not watched much of Washington this season, but the little that I have, the Huskies look borderline elite on offense. Also, I cannot in good faith take Bo Nix as a road dog. Jeffery's stats and facts will not sway my flawless logic. Rippee's Pick: Washington 38, Oregon 31
Michael Luker: I really like Dan Lanning and what he's done at Oregon. I think I'm gonna ride with the Ducks outright here. Luker's Pick: Oregon 35 Washington 31
Texas A&M +3.5 at No. 19 Tennessee, 2:30 p.m., CBS
Neal McCready: I just question the Aggies. Maybe I'm just consistently undervaluing Alabama, but Texas A&M looked to be in control. And then it wasn't. Tennessee is good at home, and I can't help but wonder if this is the moment the Aggies' season starts to fall apart. My gut says this game gets silly. Neal's Pick: Tennessee 28, Texas A&M 24
Chase Parham: My God can I pull for some sort of occurrence that causes no one to win? I have to take one of these teams? Woo boy this is one Sophie's Choice for your guy here. But, in the end, I think Texas A&M gets healthy. The Aggies are more talented. Parham's Pick: Texas A&M 30, Tennessee 24
Jeffrey Wright: Maybe I’m an idiot, but I like the spot for A&M. Tennessee is coming off of a bye and has Alabama next week. Also, Tennessee still hasn’t gotten the passing game going and just lost their best receiver for a week. The way to beat A&M is to throw it on them. That’s how both Miami and Alabama beat them. Tennessee is largely doing their best work on the ground. WRIGHT’S PICK: TEXAS A&M 27, TENNESSEE 24
Brian Rippee: Poor coaching cost A&M a chance to beat Alabama last week. That game was there for the taking. As bad as Jimbo Fisher is, I think I like the Aggies in this spot. Rippee's Pick: Texas A&M 30, Tennessee 24
Michael Luker: I wonder who Chase is pulling for here. I'm in for absolute chaos. I want to read some meltdown posts on Saturday night. Luker''s Pick: Tennessee 28 Texas A&M 27
Florida +2 at South Carolina, 2:30 p.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: I just don't think South Carolina is very good at the line of scrimmage. I think Florida is the better team, and that should tell you all you need to know about the SEC East this year. Neal's Pick: Florida 24, South Carolina 23
Chase Parham: Is Graham Mertz better than we're giving him credit for? He was awful versus Utah, but he's been completely adequate and completing a lot of passes since then. I think Spencer Rattler is a very good quarterback, but Carolina isn't a good team. Parham's Pick: UF 23, Carolina 20
Jeffrey Wright: I was all set to take South Carolina here. Florida away from the Swamp is just not a very good football team. However, I cannot ignore the fact that both BetQL and PFF show that over 90-percent of the money is on South Carolina, and the line hasn’t moved. Give me the Gators. WRIGHT’S PICK: FLORIDA 24, SOUTH CAROLINA 20
Brian Rippee: Yuck. Neither of these teams are any good. The sharp play feels like Florida, but I cannot unsee what the Gators did on the road at Utah and Kentucky. South Carolina is pretty good at home and Spencer Rattler is playing good football. Rippee's Pick: South Carolina 31, Florida 20
Michael Luker: If I'm being honest, I just can't get a feel for Florida this year. I'll roll with the Gamecocks at home here. Luker's Pick: South Carolina 31 Florida 28
Auburn +12 at No. 22 LSU, 6 p.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: LSU's defense looked serviceable in the second half at Missouri. Maybe the Bayou Bengals are figuring some things out. Auburn can't throw it, and that's where LSU is most vulnerable. Auburn does have a solid defense, so maybe they'll be able to slow Jayden Daniels and Co. a bit. Auburn is coming off a bye week, and I wonder if LSU is a little tired. Still, as we prepare for our week from hell discussing Pastor Hugh and the Forgiveness Brigade, I'm hoping for a Cajun beatdown. My late grandfather, B.J. Neal, would be proud of me for this pick. Neal's Pick: LSU 38, Auburn 13
Chase Parham: Auburn just can't score enough here. The line feels a few points too low, so I'll take the gift and go with it and avoid that it could be a trap. LSU is elite offensively, and while the defense is abysmal, it found itself late. Back to that mental stability thing... Parham's Pick: LSU 38, Auburn 24
Jeffrey Wright: My new favorite early week treat is watching Hugh’s press conferences on YouTube. During his first five minutes this week, he referenced his really good plan and 10 touchdowns plays and immediately threw both his players and coaches under the bus. He also threw all of his wide receivers on blast and mentioned playing the young guys. Never change, Hugh. You have to throw on LSU to win, and Auburn cannot throw the ball. WRIGHT’S PICK: LSU 41, AUBURN 24
Brian Rippee: This feels too easy. LSU's offense is great. Its defense is bad but looked more competent in the second half against Missouri and did enough to propel the Tigers to a win on the road. As fishy as this line seems, I have no idea how Auburn scores enough to keep this close. Rippee's Pick: LSU 45, Auburn 17
Michael Luker: I'm going back to the emotional hedge bet here. If Auburn covers, I make money. If Auburn doesn't cover, I get entertainment. Win win scenario. Luker's Pick: LSU 31 Auburn 24
No. 10 USC +2.5 at No. 21 Notre Dame, 6:30 p.m., NBC
Neal McCready: Flip a coin here. This one could go either way. Caleb Williams is special, but the Trojans' defense couldn't be more porous. Notre Dame has Sam Hartmann, but the Irish isn't America's best-coached team. The Trojans have been playing with fire. I'm going to guess they're finally ready to be burned. Neal's Pick: Notre Dame 31, USC 28
Chase Parham: USC deserves to lose a game. Despite having Caleb Willams, it's been multiple Houdini acts and the benefit of bad opposing coaching. I've been valuing Notre Dame too much all season though. Let's just ride with the Trojans. Parham's Pick: USC 31, ND 27
Jeffrey Wright: I think this line is somewhat of an overreaction to USC’s defense, but I feel like everyone is ignoring that Notre Dame is playing their seventh-consecutive game and has only scored 55 points in their previous three games. I think USC will get up for this game and win outright. WRIGHT’S PICK: USC 31, NOTRE DAME 28
Brian Rippee: USC looked bad last week against Arizona and barely escaped that game with a victory. However, Notre Dame is an average team with a quarterback who looks more average by the game. Rippee's Pick: USC 27, Notre Dame 23
Michael Luker: Sneaky good game here. I think Notre Dame handles business at home. I know that USC has Caleb Williams, but they really don't look like a top ten team to me right now. Luker's Pick: Notre Dame 34 USC 30
No. 25 Miami +3.5 at No. 12 North Carolina, 6:30 p.m., ABC
Neal McCready: On principal alone, I'm rolling with the Tar Heels. They defied the NCAA, after all. On the other sideline, we have the guy who declined to just take a knee and then threw his running back under the bus. I'm cheering for a blowout. Neal's Pick: North Carolina 34, Miami 27
Chase Parham: Drake Maye is impressive, but Miami is the better team. If the coaching staff will just let them take care of business. It's been a difficult week, but I think the Canes respond. Parham's Pick: Miami 33, UNC 31
Jeffrey Wright: I like this spot for Miami. They just had an unforgivable loss against Georgia Tech, and North Carolina had its best showing of the year against an injury-riddled Syracuse. I don’t think the Tar Heels have played anyone nearly as good as Miami. WRIGHT’S PICK: MIAMI 31, NORTH CAROLINA 28
Brian Rippee: I have enjoyed participating in Neal's Picks because it allows me to do heinous, illogical things like what I am about to do in this space. Miami coming off the dumbest loss in modern college football history, on the road at North Carolina? You bet. Rippee's Pick: Miami 35, North Carolina 30
Michael Luker: It'll be interesting to see how this Miami team responds after what happened last weekend. I frankly think UNC wins regardless, but Miami teams of the recent past have tended to fall off completely after hitting adversity, so I'm intrigued to see how they play. Luker's Pick: North Carolina 35 Miami 28
Missouri +2.5 at No. 24 Kentucky, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: Another coin toss here. Missouri really let one get away last week. It's the kind of loss that lingers. Kentucky just got its ass kicked. It's the type of loss that one accepts and moves on quite quickly. Still, I've been kind of impressed with Mizzou all season. I'm betting they bounce back. Neal's Pick: Missouri 27, Kentucky 24
Chase Parham: Missouri has the better win this season and the better skill players. Kentucky made hay off a bad schedule and history. Kentucky couldn't come close to bullying Georgia, and speed will be an issue this weekend. Parham's Pick: Missouri 37, Kentucky 30
Jeffrey Wright: Are we sure that Kentucky is good? The Missouri defense has been susceptible to the pass, but they’ve been pretty good against the run. Picking against Kentucky at home is usually not the best strategy, but I’m going to trust my eyes that Missouri is the better team. WRIGHT’S PICK MISSOURI 27, KENTUCKY 24
Brian Rippee: Same story every year with Kentucky. Pretty good against inferior competition and offensively incompetent against good competition. Missouri is the much better football team. Rippee's Pick: Missouri 35, Kentucky 20
Michael Luker: Both teams off of disappointing losses. Kentucky has won seven of the last eight meetings, so I'll go with the Wildcats here. Luker's Pick: Kentucky 30 Missouri 27
No. 18 UCLA +4.5 at No. 15 Oregon State, 7 p.m., FOX
Neal McCready: Give me the Beavs at home. UCLA was impressive last week, but taking that show to Corvallis to play an angry Oregon State team is another test altogether. Neal's Pick: Oregon State 37, UCLA 27
Chase Parham: I'm tired of picking Pac 12 games. There's one benefit to next season. Parham's Pick: Oregon State 20, UCLA 13
Jeffrey Wright: Duh. WRIGHT’S PICK: OREGON STATE 28, UCLA 20
Brian Rippee: Another awesome PAC 12 game. It is a shame we are losing this conference, but it only has itself to blame. I like UCLA's team a lot, but I don't think Oregon State lets this one slip away at home. Rippee's Pick: Oregon State 34, UCLA 28
Michael Luker: We aren't talking enough about the PAC-12 this year. In their last year of existence, they might have the best overall conference. I like Oregon State to win outright, but I think UCLA covers. Luker's Pick: Oregon State 30 UCLA 28