Neal's Picks, presented by Service Specialists: Week 9

NEAL'S PICKS PALATIAL HEADQUARTERS -- You don't have to wait for Halloween to go trick or treating.

The lines this week are plenty spooky.

We at Neal's Picks perused the betting sheets, searching for anything resembling a sure thing. All we found was trickery.

Maybe it all goes well and we end up with bags of Reese's Cups, but this has the feel of one of those weeks when all that's in the plastic jack-o-lantern at the end of the night is a few boxes of raisins and some Sweet Tarts.

Arkansas-Auburn, Missouri-South Carolina, a 22-point line in the Cocktail Party, Kentucky-Tennessee, Team Chaos (Texas A&M) vs. Team M.A.S.H. (Ole Miss). That's the basic lineup. Remember back in August when you went down a schedule and said W and then L and then W again? Yeah, that didn't factor in injuries and egos and the like.

Well, here we are, about to close the book on October and the games are harder than ever to predict.

If you're trying to fund the family Christmas this week on this slate of games, Godspeed.

On to the picks...

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Last Week:

Neal McCready: 7-2 overall, 3-5 ATS

Chase Parham: 7-2 overall, 4-4 ATS

Jeffrey Wright: 6-3 overall, 3-5 ATS

Brian Rippee: 7-2 overall, 3-5 ATS

For The Season:

Neal McCready: 75-16 overall, 43-35 ATS

Chase Parham: 74-17 overall, 43-35 ATS

Jeffrey Wright: 72-19 overall, 38-40 ATS

Brian Rippee: 75-16 overall, 27-51 ATS

No. 2 Ohio State -15 at No. 13 Penn State, 11 a.m., FOX

Neal McCready: I was prepared to lay more points than this. I think Ohio State is the best team in college football, and the Buckeyes are hitting their stride. Neal's Pick: Ohio State 38, Penn State 17

Chase Parham: Penn State has bit me a couple times, but I just don't believe in the Nittany Lions. Let's lay the points and hope the Buckeyes show up angry. Ohio State has a real shot at the national title. Parham's Pick: Ohio State 42, Penn State 21

Jeffrey Wright: Since 2017, Ohio State has been favored against Penn State five times. They are 5-0 straight up in those games but are just 1-4 ATS in those games. Also, Penn State has not lost by more than 13 points in any of those contests. WRIGHT’S PICK: OHIO STATE 38, PENN STATE 28

Brian Rippee: This is a lot of points, but I do believe Ohio State is the Big Ten's only real national title contender. I will lay them here. Rippee's Pick: Ohio State 38, Penn State 20

Arkansas -4 at Auburn, 11 a.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: We could get a track meet here. I'm not sure either defense can stop the opposing offense. I think Arkansas wins, but I'm taking four points here in a game that could be decided by a field goal. If it does, I hope Caroline's friend, Cam, makes it this time. She says he's a really nice guy. Neal's Pick: Arkansas 35, Auburn 33

Chase Parham: Bryan Harsin has done a nice job keeping his team playing hard. They aren't good, and he's a lame duck, but he does get credit for that. The Tigers may definitely keep this close. Arkansas is going to score, but it's beat up on defense and can't stop anyone. That's not the recipe for covering a road game. Parham's Pick: Arkansas 37, Auburn 34

Jeffrey Wright: My new rule is when the line is 3.5 to 4.5, I’m going to take the favorite, and when it’s under three points I’ll take the underdog. WRIGHT’S PICK: ARKANSAS 34, AUBURN 28

Brian Rippee: It is a weird place to be, but I find myself admiring how Bryan Harsin has handled a disastrous situation. He is not totally absolved of fault in it, but the Auburn booster mafia mostly created this impossibly strange circus. The Tigers have not quit on him yet. How much that matters, I do not know. But I will ride with them one more time against an average Arkansas team. Rippee's Pick: Auburn 35, Arkansas 34

Florida +22 vs. No. 1 Georgia, 2:30 p.m., TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Fla., CBS

Neal McCready: Georgia is going to win but this just feels like a lot of points. Florida hung with LSU, who looked awfully good last weekend in Baton Rouge. Credit to Vegas; these lines play tricks with the mind. Screw it. If I'm going to lose, it's going to be because of some backdoor shenanigans. I'll live with it. Neal's Pick: Georgia 45, Florida 20

Chase Parham: My God there aren't many games this week, but I hate every line. The outcome isn't in doubt, but four scores? Florida is schizophrenic, and I have no idea which team shows up. Georgia is banged up but playing better. Just give me the points, but so help you if you spend real money on this game. Parham's Pick: Georgia 44, Florida 24

Jeffrey Wright: Anthony Richardson was 12-for-20 for 82 yards and two interceptions last year against the DAWGS. Most people are saying this is a look ahead spot for Georgia, but I don’t really care since they didn’t play last week. Also, Florida has failed to cover six of its last seven games following a straight-up loss. Also, Florida has covered two numbers this entire season, once in Week 1 against Utah when the Utes wilted down the stretch in the Gainesville heat and the other when they mounted one of the finest backdoor covers we’ve ever seen in Knoxville. WRIGHT: GEORGIA 38, FLORIDA 14

Brian Rippee: I hate all of the lines this week. This may be my least favorite. Coming from a man with 51 losses on the season, that is saying a lot. I think this is too many points and Florida is capable enough to keep this close(ish). Rippee's Pick: Georgia 38, Florida 17

No. 9 Oklahoma State (Pick) at No. 22 Kansas State, 2:30 p.m., FOX

Neal McCready: I just have a life rule. If you offer me Oklahoma State at an affordable price, I take the Cowboys. This price is a little steep on the road in Manhattan, but I'm going to be mad at myself if I overthink this. Neal's Pick: Oklahoma State 35, Kansas State 31

Chase Parham: Oklahoma State has been great to me in recent weeks. I'm riding the Cowboys. Saddle up. Mike Gundy has put a really good streak together, and he's shown the ability to win different ways. It's an underrated coaching job. Parham's Pick: OSU 31, Kansas State 23

Jeffrey Wright: You know what happens now, right? I forsook Mike Gundy last week, and I’ll lose again trying to apologize for the mistake. Whatever, I won’t make the same mistake twice, Coach. WRIGHT’S PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE 34, KANSAS STATE 28

Brian Rippee: Last week, I spent three sentences praising TCU against Kansas State in a line that was -5.5. The only issue with that is that I mistakenly wrote in a five-point score. The Frogs covered. Did I triple fade myself? If that isn't rock bottom, I don't know what is. I think Oklahoma State is better, but I think Kansas State rebounds at home this week. Rippee's Pick: Kansas State 31, Oklahoma State 28

Missouri +5 at No. 25 South Carolina, 3 p.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: Here we go again. South Carolina is a little fat and happy, probably a little overvalued and Missouri keeps playing close games. Gamecocks win, but I think the line is a little high. Neal's Pick: South Carolina 24, Missouri 20

Chase Parham: Missouri is my kryptonite. I can't figure the Tigers out. That Vanderbilt showing in the second half was pathetic, but it was a win. South Carolina, meanwhile, played hard and found a win, but it was a touch of smoke and mirrors. Just give me the home team. It's a tough place to play for comparable talent. Parham's Pick: South Carolina 24, Missouri 14

Jeffrey Wright: Whoo boy. South Carolina has failed to cover five of its last six games as a ranked team, including the previous three outings. However, in the other corner we have the Missouri Tigers who are 7-15 ATS as a road underdog since 2015. Need more sad stats? The Gamecocks have not been favored in an SEC game against an opponent not named Vanderbilt since October of 2019 (41-21 loss at Tennessee). I’ll abide by the principle that South Carolina is favored for a reason. WRIGHT’S PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA 28, MISSOURI 21

Brian Rippee: I have no idea what to make of Missouri. They are very close to having a much better record than they do. These are the kinds of wins that will give Eli Drinkwitz more of a leash. South Carolina is feeling great about itself after winning a weird game against A&M in which it was out-gained by nearly 150 yards. I suppose I will fade a team with limited talent here in favor of the one I cannot figure out. Rippee's Pick: South Carolina 21, Missouri 20.

No. 19 Kentucky +13 at No. 3 Tennessee, 6 p.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: Again, I just think it's too many points. Tennessee, for all of its offensive prowess, isn't all that spectacular on defense. I think the Wildcats will score and eat some clock in the process. Neal's Pick: Tennessee 38, Kentucky 27

Chase Parham: Tennessee, at some point, has to come down to earth a little bit. The Vols will win in the cool Halloween uniforms, but Kentucky can make games ugly an bog them down. Here's hoping. Parham's Pick: Tennessee 41, Kentucky 30

Jeffrey Wright: The more I think about Tennessee’s season, the more I’m impressed with them. They’ve passed every test that we’ve given them, and maybe they’re just a really good team. Kentucky returns some key pieces, but the Wildcats just suck against Tennessee. They are 2-8 straight up and ATS against the Vols in their last ten meetings and that includes the Jeremy Pruitt era. Further, since 2017, SEC teams that are favored between 11 and 13.5 points are 23-13 against the spread. WRIGHT: TENNESSEE 42, Kentucky 28

Brian Rippee: This is too many points. I am surprised this game hasn't gotten more plucky-upset attention than it has. Fully healthy, the Cats have a good roster with a competent quarterback, and a slower, methodical pace on offense, if they can move the ball could make this a weird game. Rippee's Pick: Tennessee 28, Kentucky 23

No. 15 Ole Miss -2.5 at Texas A&M, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: This is a game Ole Miss simply must win. I think the Rebels pull it off, but I'm betting it's very close. The Aggies are a disaster, sure, but they're not getting blown out much. Neal's Pick: Ole Miss 31, Texas A&M 27

Chase Parham: Last week showed some matchup issues for Ole Miss, and Texas A&M's defense can exploit some of them. However, if the Rebels are at all what we think, they will find a way through this one against a team full of injuries, lost expectations and suspensions. It's a road game in a hostile environment against a talented team, but it's a game, also, against a team that has a mess on its hands. I've also found Lane's constant jabs this week interesting. Parham's Pick: Ole Miss 34, TAMU 30

Jeffrey Wright: “My new rule is when the line is 3.5 to 4.5, I’m going to take the favorite, and when it’s under three points I’ll take the underdog.”*

* – Rule does not apply when one of the teams in question has just suspended three players for smoking weed in the locker room before the previous game.**

** – ALLEGEDLY

WRIGHT’S PICK: OLE MISS 31, TEXAS A&M 24

Brian Rippee: The Texas A&M program is in shambles. But the Aggies run the ball decently well and still have a boatload of talent on defense. I think last week's loss was a pretty telling one for Ole Miss in terms of its deficiencies. In a way, this is a strangely fitting test for them. Can it manage to win a road game against a team with locker room issues and a dormant offense? I will give the Rebels the benefit of the doubt in a game they simply must win. Rippee's Pick: Ole Miss 30, Texas A&M 20