Neal's Picks, Week 3, presented by Larry Clark Chevrolet GMC Buick Cadillac
THE GREEN -- Bleh.
It's like Week 2 didn't happen.
Everyone basically broke even. On one hand, that's awful. On the other hand, it's another week to gather up the interns, pour tequila shots and work on strategy while swimming in the Neal's Picks pool.
It's a tough existence, making money off college football games, but we at Neal's Picks persevere.
The Mayor of Oxford spent the week with a one-game lead over The Mouth of the South. According to sources, The Mayor played golf and has already fallen into habits of complacency. The Mouth, meanwhile, has been distracted in other ways.
There is opportunity for us at Neal's Picks, and we work diligently and drunkenly to be prepared when that opening presents itself.
Alabama rolls into Oxford this weekend, meaning there won't be a Pabst Blue Ribbon anywhere near Lafayette County by midnight Saturday. The segment of the Tahd fan base that can't afford tickets to Bryant-Denny will grace us with their presence. If you go to War-Mart this weekend, that's on you.
I digress.
On to the picks...
Last Week:
Jeffrey Wright 10-2 overall, 4-4 ATS
Neal McCready: 11-1 overall, 4-4 ATS
Chase Parham: 10-2 overall, 4-4 ATS
Barrett Clark: 10-2 overall, 5-3 ATS
Corey Clark: 10-2 overall, 3-5 ATS
Season Record:
Jeffrey Wright: 23-3 overall, 10-6 ATS
Neal McCready: 22-4 overall, 9-7 ATS
Chase Parham: 24-2 overall, 11-5 ATS
Barrett Clark: 23-3 overall, 9-7 ATS
Corey Clark: 23-3 overall, 9-7 ATS
All games Saturday. All times listed are Central Daylight Time. All rankings listed are via the Associated Press.
Murray State (No line) at Kentucky, 11 a.m., SEC Network Alternate Channel:
Jeffrey Wright: Congrats to Kentucky for their big win last weekend and more importantly setting up a showdown for the ages next week in Knoxville, Tennessee v. Florida, the fight for dead last in the East.Jeffrey’s Pick: Kentucky 42, Murray State 14
Neal McCready: I'm happy for the Wildcats. I really am. Bennie Snell deserved love from Parham, but he just wasn't ready. The dedication to Ralph Webb is sweet. He's not coming back, Chase. He's gone. Move on. Neal's Pick: Kentucky 39, Murray State 6
Chase Parham: Bennie Snell isn't really doing too much for my attention. Beating Florida isn't the way to my heart. You have to rack up stats in nail-biting losses. Get too big time and I lose interest. Ralph taught him nothing. Parham's Pick: Kentucky 42, Murray State 10
Barrett Clark: Kentucky takes care of business and finishes Murray State off early in the 3rd quarter. Barrett's Pick: Kentucky 35, Murray State 14
Corey Clark: I was in Starkville at a 9U baseball tournament this weekend. The joy was so thick in the air you could chew on it. Corey's Pick: Kentucky 38, Murray State 7
UTEP (+28.5) at Tennessee, 11 a.m., SEC Network:
Jeffrey Wright: Crucial game for Tennessee as it doesn’t want to get caught looking ahead to its Cellar Dweller II showdown with Florida next week. Tennessee needs all of the good momentum it can get under “Mister Pruitt”, but Tennessee is remarkably bad at covering the number during the noon slate at home. I’ll begrudgingly take the points here. Jeffrey’s Pick: Tennessee 42, UTEP 14
Neal McCready: Phil Longo will be in the mix for the UTEP job if he wants to be. The Miners are horrible. Neal's Pick: Tennessee 41, UTEP 10
Chase Parham: Florida. Georgia. Alabama. Auburn. This is going to be so much fun watching Tennessee get throttled for a solid month. Parham's Pick: Tennessee 49, UTEP 20
Barrett Clark: Vols are still mad over the West Virginia Whooping and didn’t get enough satisfaction from East Tennessee. Barrett's Pick: Tennessee 38, UTEP 14
Corey Clark: The next couple of weeks on Memphis sports radio are going to be "must listen to." Corey's Pick: Tennessee 38 UTEP 10
Vanderbilt (+13) at No. 8 Notre Dame, 1:30 p.m., NBC:
Jeffrey Wright: I’m going to keep this game simple. Notre Dame is good, and Vanderbilt is fraud adjacent. I only need the significantly better team to win at home by two touchdowns. I’ll lay them. Jeffrey’s Pick: Notre Dame 31, Vanderbilt 14
Neal McCready: Vanderbilt has been a surprise so far, but playing in front of Touchdown Jesus is a different deal than facing Middle Tennessee or playing in Reno. Neal's Pick: Notre Dame 34, Vanderbilt 17
Chase Parham: Neal was shocked Thursday night when I announced this pick at the live show. Maybe I'm pulling a bad breakup move. Flattery despite the fact that the other has moved on. Even as I'm typing it, this seems stupid. Parham's Pick: Notre Dame 27, Vanderbilt 20
Barrett Clark: The Irish get past Vandy in the 2nd quarter and never look back. Score will be closer than actual game. Barrett's Pick: Notre Dame 35, Vanderbilt 17
Corey Clark: This line looks insane to me. So, Vandy probably wins it. Corey's Pick: Notre Dame 24 Vandy 10
No. 12 LSU (+10) at No. 7 Auburn, 2:30 p.m., CBS:
Jeffrey Wright: Julie Andrews once said, “Perseverance is failing 19 times and succeeding the 20th,”. She was obviously referring to my betting record with LSU under Ed Orgeron. Fear not Jules, for I am no quitter.
Auburn is 2-0 ATS against LSU at home under Gus Malzahn, and Joe Burrows will be making his first true road start. Jarrett Stidham is 8-0 at Jordan-Hare as the starter, and he has completed 72.7 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and no interceptions in SEC games at home. Drum major, do me a favor, and strike up the damn band. WAR EAGLE! FLY! Jeffrey’s Pick: Auburn 28, LSU 13
Neal McCready: I think Auburn's defense is going to expose LSU. It's as simple as that. Neal's Pick: Auburn 27, LSU 13
Chase Parham: I get to pick the better team, better quarterback, home team, better coach and more dominant defensive front seven while laying only 10 points against Joe Burrow? Sign me up. Burrow gained a lot of credibility for just not screwing it up in week one. That's how far the LSU QB gig has fallen. Parham's Pick: Auburn 31, LSU 16
Barrett Clark: Really physical game that comes down to quarterback play and Auburn looks to have the better quarterback. It will be an awesome game to watch. Barrett's Pick: Auburn 27, LSU 18
Corey Clark: Don't @ me, Jay G. Tate. If y'all missed the week 2 PrayerCircleGate on Neal's Twitter, go check it out. Jay G has some absolute atrocious takes regarding eating alone at a bar, Cecil Newton Sr.'s checking account, etc.....But, he never misses a chance to @ Neal. Corey's Pick: LSU 21 Auburn 20
North Texas (+8) at Arkansas, 3 p.m., SEC Network Alternate Channel:
Jeffrey Wright: This line strikes me as a classic overreaction to Arkansas’ loss last week, and North Texas’ hot start against SMU and something called Incarnate Word. Two things to keep in mind. One, neither of SMU’s wins are impressive, and two, Arkansas had to play at altitude last week. Arkansas was outscored 17-0 in the fourth, a fact that clearly displays the power of the altitude. #Science Jeffrey’s Pick: Arkansas 38, North Texas 24
Neal McCready: I know Arkansas lost last week. I get it. So here come the crazy overreactions. The Hogs might well be the worst team in the SEC, but they're still more talented than North Texas. Neal's Pick: Arkansas 41, North Texas 27
Chase Parham: Yes, the opponents have sucked, but North Texas is outscoring opponents 104-39 so far this season with a very dynamic, sound passing attack. Meanwhile, Arkansas is trying to figure out how to balance the coach's identity with the system best suited for the players on the field. Arkansas wins, but it's ugly. Parham's Pick: Arkansas 24, North Texas 20
Barrett Clark: The Hawgs look really bad. Are they bad enough to lose to North Texas at home? I don’t think so. Barrett's Pick: Arkansas 38, North Texas 31
Corey Clark: North Texas beat Chad's old team already this year. The natives are probably a little restless after this one, but I think the Hogs pull it off. Corey's Pick: Ark 30 North Texas 20
Colorado State (+18.5) at Florida, 3 p.m., SEC Network:
Jeffrey Wright: Much like last game strike me as an overreaction to what happened in Fort Collins, I believe this line is also a reaction to what happened in Fort Collins. Colorado State is 13 points better at home than on the road during the past two seasons. Further, while Dan Mullen let me down last week, I don’t believe that he won’t cover in back-to-back weeks. Jeffrey’s Pick: Florida 41, Colorado State 20
Neal McCready: I have no idea. I'm going to guess Colorado State has a letdown while Florida plays like a team that has been humbled. That said, I wonder if the Gators are good enough to cover that many points. Neal's Pick: Florida 38, Colorado State 17
Chase Parham: Colorado State isn't a good football team. I don't care what happened last week in Fort Collins. Meanwhile, Dan Mullen should fully have his team's attention. I have no issue laying this many points. Parham's Pick: Florida 38, Colorado State 10
Barrett Clark: Colorado State coming off a big win against Arkansas last week and the Gators coming off their first loss to Kentucky since the 1980’s looks bad for the Rams. Dan hasn’t slept all week and isn’t going to look past Colorado State. Barrett's Pick: Florida 38, Colorado State 17
Corey Clark: This could've been the McElwain Bowl had jort expectations been kept in check. Alas, Don Merlins gets his shot. I think the Gators rebound. Corey's Pick: Florida 45 CSU 21
No. 1 Alabama (-20.5) at Ole Miss, 6 p.m., ESPN:
Jeffrey Wright: I’ll confess this game has me shook. Not for any personal attachments or for attempts to appease the home crowd.
My brain tells me that the only way that Alabama gets stopped this week is if they decide to take three knees on every other possession and punt. However, 78 percent of bets are on Alabama to cover and 94 percent of the bets are on the over. I don’t think Ole Miss’ offense is smoke and mirrors. They have the best offensive line that I can remember, three NFL wide receivers, a capable running back, and an extremely productive quarterback who makes good decisions and a ton of plays.However, I simply don’t see how Alabama doesn’t name its score here. Ole Miss can’t stop the run or the pass, and this is the scariest Alabama team that Saban has ever had because he has a playmaker at quarterback. Yes, it will be his first true road start, but I can’t imagine a better unit to face under those circumstances than Ole Miss’ defense.Jeffrey’s Pick: Alabama 52, Ole Miss 24
Neal McCready: I don't understand this line. I'm so glad I'm too terrified to bet real money on a college football game. If I had no conscience, I'd bet a couple of years' worth of mortgage payments on Alabama. I don't think Ole Miss can stop the Tide's offense. I just don't. Neal's Pick: Alabama 49, Ole Miss 23
Chase Parham: I do think Ole Miss is going to score a decent number of points. The wide receivers are too good in one-on-one situations to not make big plays and Alabama will make some secondary mistakes here and there. But the other side is the issue. Duh, I know. Alabama's top two running backs combine for four yards per carry after contact and around seven yards total per rush. Meanwhile Tua Tagovailoa should be a severe challenge if the Rebels can't find more pass rush than the first two weeks. Ole Miss is struggling to tackle at linebacker and struggling to get pressure with the defense line. Those are fatal deficiencies against Alabama. Parham's Pick: Alabama 49, Ole Miss 28
Barrett Clark: Please don’t burn my house down for my pick because honestly Bama’s offense looks really good and the Ole Miss defense looks really bad. Our 5 star receivers finally face some 5 star DB’s. Ole Miss keeps it close til Halftime. An annual bad call I suppose keeps Ole Miss from leading in the game (Shay Hodge was pushed out of bounds then came back in btw). Bama defense does what Bama defenses do and make adjustments at the half and Bama pulls away in the 3rd. I’ll have to hear it from Alabama Bathroom Alums for weeks to come. Barrett's Pick: Alabama 44 Ole Miss 23
Corey Clark: This one is tough on me. Sure, "I'm gonna pick Alabama to win and cover until they don't" has worked out well for all of you that use my picks to bet your kid's college funds. I really really want to say "Ole Miss 63 Bama 60," but I just can't. I can't get the mental image of a 168 lb (listed weight) running back rushing for 120 yards against us. I'm sorry. These picks are just too important to me and those that value my betting expertise. I'm gonna pick Alabama to win and cover until they don't. Corey's Pick: Alabama 56 Ole Miss 35
Middle Tennessee (+31) at No. 3 Georgia, 6:15 p.m., ESPN2:
Jeffrey Wright: MTSU didn’t score on Vanderbilt, so how am I supposed to believe that they will score on Georgia. Further, Georgia is very similar to Alabama last season in which they don’t let up when the second unit hits the field because Justin Fields makes plays. I hate laying 31 points, but I also will just keep riding Georgia until they let me down. Jeffrey’s Pick: Georgia 48, MTSU 1
Neal McCready: I have no trouble whatsoever laying 31 points here. None. Georgia is a machine. Neal's Pick: Georgia 51, Middle Tennessee 10
Chase Parham: Vanderbilt beat Middle by four touchdowns. My pick above aside, this seems like an easy one. Parham's Pick: UGA 49, Middle 7
Barrett Clark: Georgia looks very good. Barrett's Pick: UGA 42, MTSU 10
Corey Clark: Yeah......uh......Vandy almost covered that line against MTSU. Corey's Pick: Jawga 49 MTSU 10
Louisiana-Lafayette (+31.5) at No. 16 Mississippi State, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network Alternate Channel:
Jeffrey Wright: State can’t afford to risk injury with its upcoming slate. They play at Kentucky and host Florida and Auburn the next three weeks. I’ll take the points. Jeffrey’s Pick: Mississippi State 45, The place where my dad went to play basketball for a summer 17
Neal McCready: Ah, ULL. Southwestern Louisiana. Mississippi State is going to maul the Cajuns. The Bulldogs are for real, boys and girls. Like it or not, their date with Auburn in a few weeks is going to be huge. Neal's Pick: Mississippi State 49, ULL 10
Chase Parham: Dan Mullen always knew the line and could be counted on with days like this. We don't know how the new head cowbell feels regarding the outrageous line against the pushover. But, as Jeffrey says, do we think State can score 32 points? Lay 'em. Parham's Pick: MSU 42, ULL 6
Barrett Clark: State College defense keeps grinding for their state and the offense throws up some points. This game will not be close. This pick feels worse than the Bama pick for some reason. Barrett's Pick: State College 48, Louisiana-Lafayette 17
Corey Clark: I'd totally forgotten that Mark Hudspeth was on staff at State. Dogs win big. Corey's Pick: MSU 56 THE University of Louisiana 21
Missouri (-7.5) at Purdue, 6:30 p.m., Big Ten Network:
Jeffrey Wright: How much does Jeff Brohm regret not getting out of Purdue when he had the chance. He’s not a worse coach than last year or years prior, but he has an incredibly difficult job. Kids, if you don’t ever listen to anything else I say, please note that you should always take a better job when offered one. You can always go down, but you can’t always go up. Jeffrey’s Pick: Missouri 45, Purdue 28
Neal McCready: The Tigers get revenge for that weird loss to the Boilermakers last season in Columbia. I once spent three days in West Lafayette, Ind., by the way. I remember nothing at all. I did walk on the football field. That was the highlight. And I bought a pair of Purdue exercise shorts that I wore all the freaking time. Ah, memories. Neal's Pick: Missouri 37, Purdue 21
Chase Parham: Give me the home dog that's quite wounded. Eastern Michigan football isn't something you want to be associated with, and Purdue felt the brunt of that last week -- after losing a close one to Northwestern in the opener. I think the Boilers come out and play well. It won't be enough on the field, but it'll be enough in Vegas. Parham's Pick: Missouri 31, Purdue 28
Barrett Clark: Missouri tries to lose this game several times but does not succeed. Good quarterback play makes the difference. Barrett's Pick: Missouri 35, Purdue 28
Corey Clark: With the exception of Arkansas and Tennessee, the SEC has done better than expected out of conference. I expect Mizzou to do the same against an 0-2 Purdue team. Corey's Pick: Mizzou 35 Purdue 21
Louisiana-Monroe (+25.5) at Texas A&M, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network:
Jeffrey Wright: This feels like the classic Jimbo takes his frustration out on an innocent victim game. #FSUTwitter Plus, Neal told me the everyone in Monroe is focused on academics. Jeffrey’s Pick: Texas A&M 49, ULM 17
Neal McCready: What a win for my boys last week in Hattiesburg! God, it was so rewarding for an academic powerhouse like ULM to go to a directional diploma factory like USM and prove that intercollegiate athletics are meant for the student-athlete, not the dumb jock majoring in criminal justice or general studies. The Fighting Scholars have their hands full this week with UT-College Station. Neal's Pick: The Cult 41, Harvard on the Bayou 17
Chase Parham: Texas A&M chanted its coach's name in a loss. That doesn't seem very SEC of them. However, Ole Miss chanted Houston Nutt's name after a win to get bowl eligible. Emotion beats out sense sometimes. Parham's Pick: Texas A&M 41, ULM 13
Barrett Clark: Texas A&M will dominate. Barrett's Pick: Texas A&M 45, Louisiana-Monroe 19
Corey Clark: I didn't include aTm in that statement one pick up. "I'm gonna keep this real."-NM That loss to Clemson was a huge win for Jimbo, y'all. aTm is used to getting beat by "trash teams, bro." Now, they're barely getting beat by really good teams. They now have the confidence they'll need to battle "The Stanford of Ouachita Parish." If only this were water skiing.... Corey's Pick: aTm 42 TSOP 21
Marshall (+13.5) at South Carolina, 6:30 p.m., ESPNU:
Cancelled in advance of Hurricane Florence.