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The 3-2-1, presented by Nix-Tann Oxford: Getting more receivers involved

This is your 3-2-1, a content item that will appear weekly during the football season. While it will almost always be football focused, other topics may be included as needed.

The content is brought to you by Nix-Tann and Associates. Click the image above or call 662-281-1200 for all of your real estate needs. Clay Deweese, O'Keefe Graham and their experienced, dedicated team bring decades of combined experience in the Oxford area, and their website makes it easy to view and compare your options for a new home. Clay also serves Oxford and Ole Miss in the Mississippi Legislature as State Representative for House District 12

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Braylon Sanders and Jonathan Mingo
Braylon Sanders and Jonathan Mingo (USA TODAY)
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THREE THINGS WE LEARNED

1 - Ole Miss is getting outside receivers involved

Ole Miss has a group of three receivers that handles the bulk of Matt Corral’s passing show. The Rebel offense has a total of 103 targets through three games, and 67 of those throws have been in the direction of Dontario Drummond, Jonathan Mingo and Braylon Sanders.

Drummond is getting his share with nine targets in each of the three games. He dominated Louisville, turning those into nine catches for 177 yards and a touchdown.

Since then, he’s had 12 catches on the 18 targets and 107 yards versus Austin Peay and 60 against Tulane. A drop in each of those past two games has harmed his numbers to some extent. Drummond has a touchdown in eight straight games.

The middle of the field and short-and-intermediate routes caused chaos for Louisville, as Corral took what was given and showed patience while slicing the Cardinals. Austin Peay employed a similar tactic, but the talent discrepancy was far too immense to matter, though Corral focused on Mingo more that week.

After only four targets in the opener, Mingo had 12 targets against Austin Peay, converting them into eight catches for 113 yards and two touchdowns.

Nine targets, six receptions and 136 yards came Mingo’s way against Tulane. His physicality is an asset on the edge with screens and one-on-ones and getting the ball to catch and run, though consistency remains the final step. He has three drops combined in the past two games.

There was an emphasis in getting Mingo the ball in week three, but teams guarded against the deep ball and made Corral throw underneath which negated Sanders somewhat prior to Tulane.

Then, the Green Wave got impatient, and Corral launched passes down the field. Sanders — who was out of sync with only three receptions on 10 targets the first two weeks — turned five targets into four catches against Tulane, including a 45-yarder.

Ole Miss got the entire field involved this past week with throws of all distances, and the Rebels also moved receivers around. After Sanders spent more than 90 percent of his snaps out wide the first two weeks, he was in the slot more than 20 percent of the time against Tulane.

Corral, on passes that traveled more than 10 yards down the field in the air against Tulane, went 7-for-10 for 169 yards and two touchdowns.

While the ball isn’t spread around much beyond those three options, Corral showed he’s plenty capable of going down the field when defenses don’t play deep coverage and leave the underneath open. He made excellent decisions versus the Wave and put on film that he’s completely comfortable throwing to whichever area of the field isn’t guarded.

2 - Alabama hasn't been great with defensive blitzes

It’s been talked about plenty that opponents have emulated Arkansas’ game plan from a year ago and dropped eight players into coverage against Ole Miss. So far in 2021, it hasn’t worked.

However, Alabama may try it for the above reason and because the Tide hasn’t been successful at disrupting opponents in the passing game with blitzes.

When blitzing (bringing at least five rushers), Alabama is allowing the 23rd-highest passer efficiency rating nationally, allowing opponents to complete 76 percent of their passes (118th nationally) and allowing 9.48 yards per pass attempt (106th nationally).

Opponents are picking up first downs on 48 percent of passing attempts when Alabama blitzes which is 116th nationally. Sixteen percent of the time Alabama is getting to the quarterback, but it’s a lot of feast or famine, as quarterbacks who have gotten rid of the ball have found a lot of success.

When Alabama plays base defense and doesn’t blitz, it’s 22nd in opponent efficiency, 35th in yards per attempt, 20th in sack rate, 38th in first downs per pass attempt, dropping that percentage from 48 to 25.

Some of this is no surprise, as Alabama is very good up front and can disrupt things without extra rushers, but the linebacker play has been spotty at times, and there are openings in the defense in the second and third levels.

Ole Miss has allowed one sack this season against a three-man rush, and Corral averages nine yards per pass attempt against no blitz. Protecting against the defensive line-only rush is a big factor next week but so is punishing Alabama when it brings pressure. How many times the Tide disrupts Corral with extra rushers may be a key point in the outcome of the game.

3 - The Rebels found out their 2022 schedule

Ole Miss found out its 2022 schedule on Tuesday — well, maybe, if Texas and Oklahoma don’t jump int the league between now and then. But, anyway, assuming this is in fact the schedule, the Rebels play their four non-conference games the first four weeks with home dates against Troy, Central Arkansas and Tulsa wrapped around a week three trip to Georgia Tech.

Ole Miss has SEC home games with Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama and State and road trips to Vandy, LSU, A&M and Arkansas. The open date is November 5 with games against Alabama, Arkansas and MSU following that.

It’s a favorable schedule, with a real chance to get to 6-0 before a daunting back half, as Kentucky and Vanderbilt are the first two SEC opponents. The bye week would be a week earlier in a perfect world, but it’s in better spot later in the season.

One criticism with the current season’s schedule is the week four open date. It would have been better to play an out-of-conference game this week and have the open date in November when Liberty is on the schedule.

With the Rebels all but certain to be breaking in a new starting quarterback next season, there’s time to get that transition fine-tuned prior to the more difficult games. The open date remains prior to Alabama, but it’s uncommon in recent memory for the Rebels to play the Crimson Tide that late in the season.

We’ll see if this sticks or if Texas and Oklahoma shuffle the deck, but it’s a good slate and one that fits Ole Miss’ needs well in 2022.

Bryce Young
Bryce Young (USA TODAY)

TWO QUESTIONS

1 - Can Ole Miss make Bryce Young uncomfortable?

Bryce Young has been excellent for Alabama during the first significant action of his college career, even carrying the Tide at times in their two-point win over Florida this past weekend. In his first true road test, Young completed 63 percent of his passes for 240 yards and three touchdowns.

The much-hyped California native hasn’t thrown an interception this season with 10 touchdowns and a 344-yard performance against Miami in the season opener. Young and Corral are neck-and-neck in Heisman favorite odds at this point of the year.

But while Young has excelled in the passing game, he’s under more heat than is common for Alabama quarterbacks. Opponents have eight sacks against Alabama which is 98th nationally, and Young has been under pressure 30 times which equates to 27 percent of his dropbacks, 107th nationally.

For comparison, Corral has been pressured 13 times and on 10 percent of his dropbacks.

Opponents are blitzing Young 31 percent of the time and overall he has 2.59 seconds to throw the football — 94th nationally. The numbers can be skewed somewhat by opponent through three games, and Florida has a quality defense, but there are openings for Ole Miss to be active in the pass rush.

Alabama is giving up sacks on seven percent of its dropbacks, barely inside the top 100 nationally, and Ole Miss defensively has gotten to the quarterback on 8.7 percent of its attempts which is 38th nationally.

2 - Will Ole Miss get the tight end involved?

Kenny Yeboah was a huge part of Ole Miss’ offense a year ago, with the tight end being a reliable second option behind Elijah Moore for Corral.

As shown above, the Rebels are relying on wide receivers to handle the pass-catching so far this season, though Ole Miss did put a little tight end action into play against Tulane, as Chase Rogers caught two passes for the second time this season. He has four catches for 18 yards on the year.

Ole Miss is throwing to the tight end eight percent of the time, and the longest reception of the season to that position is 10 yards. Everything to the tight end has been close to the line of scrimmage.

It’s possible that’s where the position is currently for the Rebels, but it’s also possible those numbers change with Casey Kelly returning to action. Kelly tore his ACL in a snowboarding accident during the offseason but played for the first time this season against Tulane — registering 25 plays.

Kelly had eight receptions on eight targets in 2020 for 115 yards and a touchdown including a long of 57. The 57-yarder was against LSU, and Kelly was one of the cogs in Ole Miss’ Outback Bowl win over Indiana. He had six catches for 49 yards and his one touchdown of the season.

Whether the knee is simply healthy enough for competition or healthy enough for him to by a part of the passing game remains to be seen, but he could be the key in getting another option to Corral as the season progresses.

Rogers is a capable blocker and does a nice job on the edge in the run game, but Kelly would provide another possibility if the knee improves to the necessary level.

Jaylon Jones
Jaylon Jones (USA TODAY)

ONE PREDICTION: Jaylon Jones will have a big play against 'Bama

Jaylon Jones has the most snaps this season of any Ole Miss cornerback, and the senior has done a nice job in coverage when throws come his way.

Jones has played 155 snaps through the three weeks which is the fourth most on the defense behind AJ Finley (169), Otis Reese (179) and Chance Campbell (165). Out of his 155 plays, 136 have been at corner with another 18 in the box and one covering the slot,

PFF College graded Jones out above average against Louisville and Tulane, while a 51-yard reception for Austin Peay dropped him to an average rating for that game.

Opponents have thrown at Jones 10 times this season and completed only four, though yards after the catch was a problem on three of the four receptions.

With a matchup of potentially the top two quarterbacks nationally next week in Tuscaloosa, Ole Miss’ pass defense will have to provide some resistance at times for the Rebels to entertain a chance at an upset.

At some point on CBS that day, Jones will come up big for the Ole Miss. He’s settled back into this role and should have a solid season ahead. I don’t know who I’m picking to win the game yet — and with Neal’s Picks so far, it doesn’t mean much if I do choose one or the other — but the defense is certainly improved, and Jones leads that secondary into a big opportunity.

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