The Mailbag, presented by The Westin Jackson, Edition 58
It's time for The Mailbag, presented by The Westin Jackson, where I answer your questions from here and Twitter.
I asked for questions. You delivered. So here we go...
From SoDakReb45: If you’re Luke, and you get 2020, do you make an OC change?(I’m not sure we would get a better OC to come coach for Luke knowing he is on hot seat though)
That would be three offensive coordinators in three years, so no, I don't. If I'm Luke, and I get 2020, I'm hoping stability and familiarity lead to more efficiency on offense.
From nas5108: What is your WS prediction?
You must not read 10 Weekend Thoughts, presented by Harry Alexander. Shame on you.
Astros in 6. The pitching matchups should be fun.
From nas5108: After some time to reflect if you Neal McCready were the OM AD what would you do with the football program- give Luke next year or cut bait after this season and bring in a whole new staff and why?
Well, here we are, on Oct. 23, and it's Coaching Hot Seat SZN Question No. 2. I honestly don't know what I'd do. I'm still inclined, based on knowing what I know about the situation from the top down at Ole Miss, to give Luke another season.
The problem with hypotheticals like this one is it assumes me being a stable athletics director with a mandate from my boss and the money to make change. I don't have a grasp on the budget. I don't have a grasp on the climate in the coaching industry. There's just so much to determine.
That's not a cop-out, either. It's reality. The situation at Ole Miss right now, in a nutshell, is unstable.
From CityRebel: What are the specifics of Luke's buyout? Was his contract rolled forward last year? If he isn't fired this year, how much would his buyout decline if he's fired after next year instead of in a few weeks given there clearly isn't a snowflake's chance in Hell that his contract is rolled forward after this season? What is the total buyout of the entire staff? How much would that amount decline if Mac left on his own for an HC position?
The buyout language of his contract is hidden. We've tried. I believe it's around $6 million for Luke and around $8-9 million for the entire staff. Again, that could be wrong; the university hides a lot of that staff in and with the Foundation.
By the way, if you're not rolling Luke's contract over, you might as well fire him. That four-year window is a real deal in football recruiting in ways that it's not in basketball or baseball.
From nas5108: In the new era of the early signing period are transition recruiting classes with new coaching staffs usually pretty bad or is a lot of that overblown?
I'm not sure that's been around long enough to really know. It's my opinion schools must know the direction they're going when they make a change. The clock ticks faster now, both with the early signing period and the transfer portal.
From CityRebel: If Luke finishes 4-8, how much does our recruiting class fall apart? Looks like one is mentioned in a "Likely to Flip" article today. And how many kids transfer out due to not liking RR's offense (thinking mainly WRs and QBs)? On the other hand, if a new coach comes in, he can do whatever he can with the transition class (sell a new vision, excitement, immediate playing time, new systems, etc.) and also recruit the current roster to stay (like Kermit did). In your opinion, how big of a difference is there between a new coach's transition class and retaining some current players versus Luke's likely deteriorating 4-8 class combined with the transfers leaving?
In my opinion, the class doesn't fall apart. Burns has been looking at Texas for a bit; he's a Texas kid whose stock is rising. Finishing the class strong on the heels of 4-8 and amid rumors of imminent change might be far more difficult. As for transfers, I simply don't know. Kids who are playing and happy rarely leave.
As for your last question, who's the new hypothetical coach? How quickly does he get in place? What's his staff look like? There's a lot there.
From Travist56: Ole miss record with Chad Kelly at QB this year (as of right now and record at end of year)?
6-2 now, 8-4 at the end.
From Hannitized: Please be "microphone guy" in the Kroger parking lot and ask the average Joe if they can name "A" player in the World Series....what would the answer be?
I wouldn't have much hope that Oxonians could name many Astros or Nationals. Oxford has never struck me as a big sports town outside of college sports and some NFL.
From Samminish: Lil' Johnny has a decision to make > He wants to play two sports (+ his trains) in Oxford, that's why he came .. .. His devoted girlfriend (an 18YO Katherine Webb clone) who followed him to Oxford said she'll continue to do 'anything + everything' for him if he just plays football only .. .. His saintly mother, who raised him as a single mom and once saved his life, begs that he'll give up football and play baseball only .. ..Oh, what does Johnny do?
I had to Google Katherine Webb. At the end of the day, she's dime a dozen. Little Johnny would stay true to Mom and play both sports.
From MarvMerchants: Do you enjoy your job?
Yes. I get to do a lot of cool stuff, and I get to be a dad. My life is good. There was a time when I longed to be a national sports writer. That time has passed. When I'm dead and gone, no one important to me will remember my career.
From North Tampa Rebel: In what year will Chase be elected Mayor of Oxford? What will be his campaign slogan?
Not going here. I need to live here at least five more years.
From CubbieReb: What is the current financial status of Ole Miss Athletics? Is it possible for us to reboot the football program the Friday after Thanksgiving?
I don't know. It's one hell of a question, though. My guess is it would be really difficult to do a reboot.
From Grovin1551: Do you think we’d all be better off if we just said what we were thinking at any given time?
For the most part, yes. I suspect feelings would get hurt, but yes, in the end, I'm a believer in transparency.
From BigSmoove32: You seem to be finally turning the corner on this Matt Luke debacle. Ranking from 0-100, what % do you attribute Matt Luke’s hiring and currently remaining as head coach to the Good Ole Boy Club?
His hiring: I think it was a coup of sorts involving Oxford power brokers and Jeff Vitter. His remaining as head coach: I think that's a different topic entirely, one that's awfully complicated moving forward.
From tawilson03: If ML is asked to leave after the season. Who is on the shortlist that Ole Miss would reach out to first?
Who's the athletics director? Who are the people pulling Boyce's strings? And yes, he's a puppet. Who does Chip Morgan want? Who does Doug Jumper want? Who does Bobby Dunlap want? My guess would be a good ol' boy with some Ole Miss ties somewhere. Hell, Boyce might coach -- following a long search, of course.
From Lone Star Reb: Pull the curtain back a little, what has been your biggest surprise with the new setup? What is your biggest disappointment? Do you think some things will change after this season?
I'm not sure what you're referring to. Get more specific and submit this next week.
From TX via TN Rebel: Just hearing that curling has drinking while playing the sport... thinking about making that my wintertime distraction. Since it appears that I'll never be good enough in cornhole to make it on ESPN OCHO, do you think curling is a good option? You don't have to exert as much energy in bowling but it seems like curling has a certain panache to it.
I love the idea. I'd be in.
From CityRebel: Does the OM media person have to pre-approve all questions? Do they threaten to pull your press credentials if they are unhappy with a question? The point being, why has no one asked Luke to explain the timeout on the PAT or the 50yd FG attempt that forced a below average and inexperienced secondary to defend a short field against A&M's two-minute offense? Up to that point, our D had played fantastic and we were headed to the locker room with a lead and the ball to start the second half. I don't feel like this is the case at other schools. Smart was asked tough questions after the SC loss. Saban gets pissed at reporters all the time for specific questions like this. But he's asked. I guess the questions is are reporters not allowed to ask these questions to Luke or are they too scared to do so because there are repercussions for doing so? Instead, we get to sit back and listen to him blame the players with his comments about how they aren't making the play.
No.
No.
I think the media is generally fatigued at this point. You forget most of us aren't emotionally attached like a fan base is.
No one allows or disallows questions. I can tell you I hate asking questions in press conference settings.
From robert90: The old saying "if you are playing 2 QB's it means you don't have 1 QB" is very appropriate in my opinion when it comes to Ole Miss this year. Is next years' starting Ole Miss' QB on the current roster (Plumlee, Corral, Tisdale) or is Ashford the starting QB next year?
I simply don't know. I'd guess next year's starter is Corral, but I could be bad wrong.
From robert90: QB's do not like to be on the sidelines. Tisdale is not going to sit around at Ole Miss if he is behind Plumlee, Corral and then Ashford next year. Is there a scenario where Tisdale is still on the roster next year?
Sure, there's a scenario, but I'd bet against it. My guess is he leaves, and I'm basing that on very little other than some rumors.
From RebCJ: Now that the twittersphere knows you’re a pitmaster, what is your go to dish?
I do a great brisket, if I say so myself. I'm pretty good at smoked wings. My kids love flank steak, which is really versatile for tacos and whatnot. I love cooking. I just try not to eat much of it. As I type this on Tuesday night, I've skipped dinner and I'm about to have to go to bed early so I won't eat.
From flaccid churro: Luke has made a lot of poor game management decisions. It’s hard to imagine he doesn’t know legitimate critiques of his decision making are out there. Is there any sense around the program that he’s working on these things?
I know he's aware of the critiques, so I suspect his intention is to improve. The program legitimately feels it's close to breaking through but it feels the atmosphere around it.
From train21reb: Has anyone asked ML what other positions JRP has been asked to play? Phrased this way, I think his answer might be quite telling. It’s also my opinion that they would have an identity and the team would be better if MC and JRP were always on the field at the same time (Plumlee in backfield or the slot or everywhere!)
To my knowledge, that hasn't been asked. Per sources, Plumlee very much wants to play quarterback.
I assume you're referring to Octavious Cooley. I'd argue he's been targeted a good bit this season.
We shall see. I'm told Buffen's jumper has improved and he's shooting more confidently. They're counting on him to make a big jump this season.
Gaslight Anthem by '59 Sound
Nope, I'm never going to be the guy who tells you how to spend your money. It's up to the school and the program to convince you to spend your entertainment budget on it. If you don't think it's worth it, that's your prerogative.
My guess, having not seen them yet, is the ceiling is the Sweet 16. I'm not sure what you mean about list players.
As for the quarterbacks, no. Something has to give eventually.
Not much. There's not a ton of crossover.
I don't know who the A.D. would be. If it were me, I'd look at:
Cincinnati's Luke Fickell
Alabama defensive coordinator Pete Golding
Boise State's Brian Harsin
UCF's Josh Heupel
Tulane's Willie Fritz
That would just be a sampling.
John Hartwell and Keith Carter are the names I hear. Of course, if Boyce is leading the search, he might name himself.
From Usp94: Looking at the start of next years football schedule and the strong possibility of starting 0-5, 1-4 ; if Luke gets next year isn’t that, in effect, saying he gets 2021 as well? Last year the story was that we couldn’t hold the NCAA deal against him. This year the deal is that the credit card came due, as it pertains to the MCAA mess. Next year the story will be that we can hold the schedule against him. If we know we’re going to have a tough year again next year, wouldn’t it be better to suffer that with the long term solution at the HC position? Doesn’t another year really just set the rebuild back 2 more years?
Look, one of two things happens if Luke gets 2020. He either wins one or two of the games against Baylor, Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Florida or he starts 2-5. In one scenario, he silences the critics. In the other, he essentially fires himself.
From Rogertheshrubber: When you see a fly upside down on a ceiling, do you think he flew a long way upside down or did he fly right side up until the last second and then flip over?
I just assume he/she talked to a lot of flies before ultimately deciding he/she was the fly who could best fly in upside down.
From Political_Commenter: Do you think there are continuity problems in changing style of offense? How long will we realistically be with RR’s system? Will any throwers or pass catchers transfer bc of the offense switch?
I don't know how long Rodriguez stays. I don't know what he wants to do or if there's a market out there for him to be a head coach. Would he take a Group of Five job? I can't really foresee a scenario where Luke moves on from him. I'd suspect Luke would want him to stay around for continuity's sake, if nothing else. My guess is we see a lot of Corral in the coming weeks, which means more passing. All of your questions are legitimate. They're all worth discussing. They're just almost impossible to answer right now.
From David Collier: I don’t get the “keep Luke to save the recruiting class” stuff. Let’s say we go 4-8. Wouldn’t keeping Luke with EVERYONE hammering that he will be fired next year be just as crippling in landing the uncommitted big targets as firing him after Thanksgiving? Also, why allow a coaching staff to remain just to build one more class when that class might not fit the style the next coach wants?
Your point is well-articulated I can't and won't argue it. Your second question is where I'm fascinated as well, for from what I can see and decipher, they're not recruiting to a running-quarterback system. They're recruiting to a balanced offense. Robby Ashford is a thrower. They're recruiting tall offensive linemen with pass protection skills. They're recruiting elite wide receivers. I feel like everyone is going to think I'm avoiding these questions, when in reality, I'm not sure of answers.
From RailroadGin8: How many questions did you get this week regarding the job status of Matt Luke?
All. The. Questions.
From randle4: Listening to GPITS when you discussed setting up your live show equipment, and mentioned having the Queen of RG over.Who is your next Friday Night RG Guest??Can/Will this be a weekly occurrence?
The Friday Night Rebel Grove Experience.
We would need a sponsor or seven.
Everyone would have to be as cool as Neil and Avery Forbes, and that's a hell of a high bar. Also, Neil brings good alcohol.
Also, I'd need to run this by one Laura McCready.
From Desmondo22: Obviously some coaches are better than others in press conferences, dealing with the media etc. Who normally advises coaches in this area? Does anyone critique them and give them feedback? What would your feedback be for Matt Luke?
Normally, media relations people give coaches some pointers and some thoughts and some prep. I have no idea if they then give critiques and feedback.
Luke is frustrated. I suspect he feels the fans' frustration right now and my guess is he's fully aware people are widely discussing his job security. The chancellor and the athletics director who hired him are gone.
The Ole Miss media corps is an odd one. One outlet is favorable no matter what. One outlet is pretty meat-and-potatoes, if you will. There are several talented young guys on the beat who are looking for creative ways to cover the team. Others (hand raised) are fatigued with the current access style and have sort of thrown the towel in.
My advice to Luke or any other coach is several-fold:
1. Be yourself. Always.
2. The media isn't out to get you.
3. The media isn't the reason for your struggles.
4. On occasion _ and I think the past two Saturdays have warranted this _ openly critique yourself.
I thought Luke was messaging some Monday, talking about recruiting and youth and how close this team is to having several wins. Frankly, he's right. However, I'd advise him to be more candid, to be more real. Fans want access. They want to feel like they're inside the walls. The us-against-the-world thing that a lot of football coaches do is destructive. They turn the media into a villain/adversary, and that media is the very vehicle that's needed to get messages to fans.
From OleMiss1982: Do you ever get tired of being asked the same question over and over again once you’ve answered it or expressed your opinion multiple times.
It's too early to know what's going to happen after Thanksgiving.
This is a recording.
This is a test. In the event of an emergency...
No, the fact that I get this level of response each week to my mailbag tells me I'm doing something right (or that you suckers are bored and lonely and desperate).
From WhatTheHell_IHL: What is your non-conference W/L projection for Ole Miss basketball? How many minutes do you envision Franco Miller getting over the course of the season? And who will Carson pull for in a Rockets-Westbrook/Thunder game?
I'm fairly optimistic about this team. I'll go 11-2 in the non-conference. Minutes will be hard to come by for Miller, but coaches seem very pleased with him and I know they'd like to keep Tyree and Shuler fresher over the course of the year than they could a season ago.
As for Carson, he's still cheering for the Thunder, but I think that's just him being nice to me. Carson really loves Westbrook. Here's proof:
From RebelPsychologist: Is this a rational fear? The players and coaching staff go all in on Plumlee and recruit to his skill set. Let's say they land some defensive recruits and have a quality defense in 2 seasons. Is it possible OM would be like MS State in 2017? Really good defense with a running QB that wins you 9 games but because he can't throw downfield you just can't hang with the Alabama and LSUs of the SEC.
You're the psychologist.
I really don't think that's the direction they want to go. I think running Plumlee that much isn't sustainable. I think they know that. I think recruiting to that system is problematic and I think they know that too.
From delta_Reb22: Historical Hypothetical:You are sent back in time to Ancient Rome, for the sole purpose of taking over as Caesar, however you are only given two options to choose from that will help you with taking down Rome. 1) your iPhone, that will stay fully functional and can use just like normal. 2) a modern military tank IMO, you could do it with either, but the tank could take out Rome (city) in a day and at that point you pretty much have everything covered. If you choose the iPhone, it would take a little longer but you could rise up through the social ranks pretty quickly and start a coup. Heard this on another podcast, and I went with tank, several friends disagree, but I don’t think they realize how destructive modern tanks are and are over valuing the Roman’s military prowess.Thoughts?
If I were back in Ancient Rome, there would be no one for me to call with my phone, right? There wouldn't be an Internet. I suppose I could use the phone, as you said, to rise through the social ranks, replicate the technology and become quite powerful in the process. I think, long-term, that would be the play. Then I could start a podcast or something.
From Reb Zeppelin: At what point does Arch Manning fit into the decision making on whether or not to retain Matt Luke? Considering that Cutcliffe was hired because that's what was needed to land Eli, can you see something similar happening for Ole Miss to land Arch? He's class of 2023, so I can foresee a scenario where Luke gets 2020 as a "throw away" year simply to buy some time, etc. for Arch to progress through high school. Luke would then be let go and replaced by whomever the Mannings want to coach Arch. This will give the new coach two years to recruit some surrounding cast to support Arch and his particular skill sets when he arrives at Ole Miss. Thoughts? Stated another way, if I'm Cooper Manning, there is no way I send my son to play for Matt Luke and Rich Rod's 75% run offense. At some point we have to start positioning ourselves to land the kid, am I right? Of course, all of this is for not if Arch doesn't live up to expectations, but for now, he seems to be heading in the right direction.
To be honest, I want to ridicule this question because the kid is just a ninth-grader. However, you generally make a point -- not just about Arch Manning, but about quarterbacks in general.
However, you're right. Let's say Arch Manning lives up to the hype. Ole Miss simply must be in a position to be attractive to him. Billy Brewer wrecked the Ole Miss program in the years leading up to Peyton Manning's matriculation to college. In my eyes, that was unforgivable. Ole Miss can't afford to repeat that history.
All of that said, pinning the hopes of a program's future on a 14- or 15-year-old is borderline insane and completely unfair to the aforementioned teenager.
Note: I'm not saying you are; I'm just stating that as an overriding opinion in general.
From 901_Reb: It seems like everything is improving or remaining steady, except the offense. The defense has clearly improved. Most seem to agree that Matt has a plan and is sticking to it, regarding building the roster. You've commented that you like the plan. Off the field stuff is great - meaning there have been no issues and it sounds like academic grades are good, as a team. That said, there is no offensive identity and a QB controversy. IF he could get it done, do you think Matt Luke should encourage RR to leave or just let him go and hire someone else as OC, and see where the chips fall in 2020? Let's say Corral transfers, and the new OC has the spring and summer camps to evaluate and elect a starter between Plumlee, Tisdale, Dent, and Ashford (assume they are all there). Does this sound crazy? Does it sound doable?
You guys have beaten me down. You win. You want an honest answer? Here goes.
It's my opinion Luke planned to hire Will Hall last December. People above him either vetoed that hire or talked him out of it. Hall stuck with Tulane after the process got extended and Luke ultimately hired Rodriguez.
The personnel would be the same with Hall, and Hall wouldn't have necessarily prevented the injuries to Corral and/or Plumlee.
However, moving on from Rodriguez, unless he landed another gig and left on his own accord, would be expensive and problematic. At this point, Luke would likely have a difficult time finding a better offensive coordinator.
I guess it's Arkansas this year. Slim pickings, really.
Oh, gosh, Benjamin. I asked my family this question. Only Campbell responded. She said a bear.
I asked what kind of bear? I mean, there are lots of bears. There are Cubbie bears, teddy bears, gummy bears, Rebel the Black Bear, grizzly bears, polar bears, koala bears and more.
She said, "idk what."
I've learned teenage girl code. That meant she probs didn't want to keep having the conversation. IKR?
It also probs meant she had more important things to do than humor you and me. KIR.
But she's likely right. I'm probably a bear. I'm usually, as you know, a teddy bear. But I can get pretty mean and protective and nasty. She's certainly seen both sides.
Come see me this weekend. She got you a hoodie.