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Published Nov 27, 2020
Double-digit favorites are the recent trend in Egg Bowl series
Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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@ChaseParham

Double-digit spreads have been fairly common in recent years between Ole Miss and Mississippi State, and Saturday’s 3 p.m. kickoff is hovering in that same territory.

The Rebels (3-4) opened as 11.5-point favorites against the Bulldogs (2-5) on Sunday and are currently -9.5, a number that has been steady since midday Monday. A bettor would have to wager $330 to win $100 on an Ole Miss victory, regardless of score, and a $100 wager on a Mississippi State win would net $305.

Ole Miss has mixed two wins and two byes into the past four weeks, with a scheduled open date and a postponement due to Texas A&M COVID issues.

MSU, dressing under 50 players because of its own COVID and opt-out situation, fell to Georgia, 31-24, on Saturday. The Bulldogs are 1-5 (a 24-17 win over Vanderbilt) since routing LSU to begin the season.

"When it's in-state, it's a big deal,” Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin said. “People talk about it impacting recruiting, which it can. Two new coaches. This is a big game. So we need to play really well."

There’s been a double-digit closing line in three of the past four Egg Bowls, with a chance for this to be four out of five. That broke a string of four straight games from 2012-2015 with the line within 3.5 points.

Two of those three recent large spread became upsets, however as Ole Miss was a 10-point favorite in 2016 and lost 55-20 in Hugh Freeze’s final game as head coach. It was the largest MSU win in Oxford in series history. A year later, State was a 14-point favorite in Starkville, but Ole Miss raced out to a 24-6 lead and eventually won, 31-28, as the victory helped remove Matt Luke’s interim designation.

MSU was a 12.5-point favorite in 2018 in Oxford and won 35-3.

The only other two times since 1995 Ole Miss has been a double-digit favorite were Rebel routs. Ole Miss, a 19.5-point favorite, beat State 31-0 in 2003 and 45-0 in 2008 as an 18-point favorite. MSU was favored by 17 and won 31-3 in Houston Nutt’s last game in 2011.

Ole Miss’ offense is one of the main storylines for 2020, averaging more than 40 points per game. That’s led to a total score over/under that opened at 65.5 on Sunday and has raced all the way up to 69. Six of the last seven Egg Bowls, including three straight, have paid on the under. The current over/under is tied with 2016 for the highest total in series history.

Ole Miss is 13-11-1 against the spread and 12-13 overall in the last 25 years against Mississippi State.

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