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Published Apr 14, 2023
Friday Five: Rebels head to MSU for Super Bulldog Weekend
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Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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Ole Miss and Mississippi State meet in Starkville for three games starting at 6 p.m. on Friday. The series continues at 3 p.m. on Saturday and 1 p.m. on Sunday.

It’s Super Bulldog Weekend, centered around the baseball series and the Bulldogs’ spring football game. The Saturday baseball game is on SEC Network.

The Rebels are 19-14 overall and 2-10 in the SEC, while Mississippi State is 20-14 overall and 3-9 in the SEC. Ole Miss lost two of three at home to Arkansas last weekend, and MSU won its first SEC series, taking two of three at Alabama.

“The rivalry is part of it, but it’s SEC games and where we both are,” Ole Miss head coach Mike Bianco said. “It’s always a huge weekend and doesn’t matter what sport you’re plying them in, and I’ve said that for over two decades.

“Obviously there will be a lot on the line emotionally for both programs, but really it’s to win games and go in the right direction."

Here are some things on my mind.

RECRUITING CHANGES COMING TO COLLEGE BASEBALL

Kendall Rogers reported some significant college baseball recruiting news on Thursday with regard to coaches and when they can contact prospects.

Starting April 26, college baseball coaches can’t have any contact with a recruit or recruits’ families prior to August 1 of their junior year of high school. Also no off-campus contact is allowed prior to September 1 of recruits’ junior years.

While coaches obviously will see prospects at camps, coaches can’t extend scholarship offers before the junior year.

This is a major calendar shift, as college baseball has had recruits routinely commit during freshman and sophomore high school seasons. There had long been a gentlemen’s agreement that once a player committed, other schools would back off and no longer recruit the prospect.

In past years, I’ve known coaches to call and apologize to other coaches for accidentally recruiting a player beyond his commitment.

Ole Miss currently has eight high school sophomores committed and two high school freshmen committed. One eighth grader is committed to the Rebels. Under this new rule, moving forward, coaches won’t even be able to contact or receive contact from these players.

Here’s the truth, it’s a good rule, and the necessity for it has been increasing for a while.

That gentlemen’s agreement has frayed recently, and is arguably nonexistent, as more money and pressure have coming into the sport — and the portal has made tampering a more comfortable and necessary part of the game.

Coaches won’t have to project if a 15-year-old is going to be elite in five years and lock up his commitment. The system has been broken from both sides. Players have had to make college decisions way before they were ready, and while you can break your commitment, that’s an extra layer that isn’t always easy for the player to do.

Players can better understand the programs they are aligning with because projecting what a program is in 12-24 months is far easier than 60 months on some occasions.

With baseball recruiting starting to look more and more like football and basketball with schools recruiting players committed to other programs, this will mostly eliminate early commitments. That negates potentially flipping of prospects in a sport that has always avoided most of that publicly.

Coaches can also better understand the player and not have to potentially cut a committed player who didn’t progress as expected. That was going to be more and more common without this rule change.

With the transfer portal and need for immediate depth, baseball programs are going to focus less and less on development. Players can either pitch or hit or they can’t. Coaches were going to move on from kids who had been committed for years in some cases.

It’s also a quality of life advantage for coaches. Baseball staffs are small, and instead of focusing on four high school recruiting classes, two junior college classes and the transfer portal, schools can eliminate two or three high school classes from the equation. Phone calls with eighth graders are no longer allowed instead of a ridiculous but necessary part of the job.

The rule change has plenty of positives, but it’s also an obvious acknowledgement that the gentlemen era is over. College baseball is quickly moving toward recruiting like its football and basketball counterparts.

REBS LOOKING FOR FIRST WEEKEND WIN VS. MSU SINCE 2015

Nic Perkins hit a walk-off single in the 10th inning to give Ole Miss an 8-7 win over Mississippi State and sweep the three-game series in Oxford.

The Rebels trailed by five runs entering the ninth inning but tied it with a Colby Bortles two-run single before winning it an inning later.

That was May 9, 2015. Ole Miss won all four regular season games against the Bulldogs that season, including the Governor’s Cup in Pearl. The Rebels haven’t won a weekend series against Mississippi State since then.

MSU has taken two of three from Ole Miss in 2016, 2018 and 2021 in Starkville and won series against the Rebels in Oxford in 2017, 2019 and 2022, sweeping Ole Miss in both 2017 and 2019.

Ole Miss is 1-4 in the Governor’s Cup since 2016, with the win coming 5-2 last season. There wasn’t a game in Pearl in 2020 or 2021.

Since that 2015 weekend, the Bulldogs are 8-1 against Ole Miss in Oxford and 6-3 in Starkville. MSU went 9-21 in the SEC last year, losing its last 11 conference games. Prior to 2022, State had won at least 20 league games in three of the five previous years.

A SNAPSHOT OF OLE MISS PITCHING IN SEC PLAY

Ole Miss is three games from the midpoint of SEC play, so while it’s a small sample size, it’s fair to look at usage and performance.

The Rebels have a 7.10 SEC ERA through four weekends, and no pitcher with more than five innings of work has an ERA under five. Xavier Rivas, who has given Ole Miss some length in the rotation, leads the team (out of those eligible statistically) with a 5.06 ERA.

Jack Dougherty (8.05 ERA, 1.89 WHIP), JT Quinn (6.91, 1.35), Mitch Murrell (5.91, 1.76) and Mason Nichols (7.20, 1.60) are the next four pitchers in innings after Rivas and the only other players with 10 or more innings in conference play.

Dougherty will start tonight, though it’s not the best role for his skill set. He’s optimally suited to be a 1-to-3-inning shutdown reliever. Quinn has been serviceable the past two weeks as the No. 3 starter and he’ll be there again on Sunday after Rivas on Saturday.

Hunter Elliott is scheduled to return next week against LSU, but he's not going to be available for a normal pitch count.

Murrell was unavailable during the midweek with a lingering back issue, but Bianco said he should be good to go against the Bulldogs.

Nichols, who defaulted into the closer role, has allowed a run or more in seven of his last eight appearances. Other than a four-run struggle in 0.2 innings against Florida on March 25, he’s been OK in conference play, allowing four runs in 9.8 innings across five appearances.

The high-leverage, multi-inning closer role isn’t his best spot either, as he’s allowed six free passes, and opponents are hitting .275 off him.

Shifting Dougherty back to his best position would also free Nichols up to perform better as a secondary bullpen option, a place he did well with last year. Not a single Ole Miss pitcher is in a role that’s the same as 2022, and only two available arms threw at least double-digit innings a year ago.

Brayden Jones, who had arm soreness this week and may not be 100 percent, has only given up one run in five SEC innings, but it’s been a dance around disaster, as he’s allowed six hits and four walks.

Cole Ketchum flashed on Tuesday against Memphis and looks the part of a player who has earned more opportunity. The freshman right-hander has a 2.38 ERA in only 11 innings.

It’s mostly been nonconference, but with Ole Miss’ staff-wide command issue, Ketchum has just two walks to go with eight strikeouts. He gave up one run in 3.2 innings against Memphis on Tuesday.

In SEC games, Ketchum has faced three batters and gotten two outs.

WALKS, STRIKEOUTS MAY DECIDE SERIES

Whichever team does better on balls not in play may decide this series.

Ole Miss and Mississippi State, statistically, have two of the least effective pitching staffs in the SEC, as Ole Miss is 11th in ERA and 10th in opposing batting average, and State is 13th in ERA and ninth in opposing batting average.

The similarities for what that means for the series are a tad different, however. Ole Miss, offensively, needs to be disciplined. State, offensively, needs to keep putting the ball in play.

Mississippi State, from a pitching standpoint, has the most walks — with 205 — in the SEC. Ole Miss has the third-fewest walks offensively in the conference with 153.

While the Bulldogs have given up a ton of runs and struggled to win because of pitching, they haven’t been banged around the ballpark consistently. They walk hitters and create opportunities for opponents and stay in adverse situations.

It’s imperative Ole Miss allows that to happen and isn’t overly aggressive and swinging outside the strike zone. Ole Miss’ team on-base percentage is below .400. The Bulldogs are still trying to get their rotation settled, and there’s not a lot of rhythm with the starters.

Ole Miss, on the mound, is ninth in walks and has struck out the fourth-fewest opponents in the SEC. Meanwhile, State is very disciplined at the plate with the second most walks (211) in the league and the fewest strikeouts (217).

The Rebels need to either up their punch outs or play better defense than they have recently. Ole Miss allowed three unearned runs in the Saturday loss to Arkansas.

SEC STANDINGS

SEC East

Vanderbilt 11-1

South Carolina 9-2

Florida 9-3

Kentucky 9-4

Tennessee 5-7

Missouri 4-9

Georgia 3-9

SEC West

LSU 8-4

Arkansas 8-4

Texas A&M 6-7

Alabama 4-8

Auburn 4-8

Mississippi State 3-9

Ole Miss 2-10

SEC Schedule

South Carolina at Vanderbilt

Missouri at Texas A&M; Thursday - TAMU 13, Mizzou 5

Ole Miss at MSU

Georgia at Florida

Auburn at Alabama

Kentucky at LSU; Thursday - LSU 16, UK 6

Tennessee at Arkansas

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