Assuming there is no big news — and that is most certainly the assumption at this moment — a most critical offseason for Ole Miss basketball has begun.
Ole Miss lost to Missouri for the third time this season Wednesday night, 72-60.
The first time the Rebels lost to the Tigers, a 25-point setback in Oxford, it should have sent up warning flares that something was terribly wrong with this team.
By the second time, a six-point loss last month in Columbia, most fans had checked out already. Baseball season had begun, and a sport that already battles for attention at Ole Miss had been relegated to an afterthought for most.
So Wednesday’s loss in the first game of the Southeastern Conference Tournament in Tampa, Fla., is barely news. A win would have all but certainly delayed the inevitable for a mere 18 hours or so. Missouri will face fifth-seeded LSU Thursday and likely see its season come to a halt, leaving the Tigers’ brass to make a decision on the future of coach Cuonzo Martin.
Missouri improved Wednesday to 12-20 overall, winning for just the sixth time in 19 SEC games. Do the math. One-fourth of Mizzou’s wins so far this season came against Ole Miss, including half of the Tigers’ victories against league foes.
Ole Miss finished the season 13-19 overall, winners of just four games against SEC competition. Ole Miss coach Kermit Davis took his first Rebel team to the NCAA Tournament. In 2020, the Rebels were 6-12 in the SEC and bounced from the conference tournament in Nashville hours before COViD-19 canceled it. Last season, Ole Miss was 10-8 in the SEC and a three-point SEC Tournament quarterfinal loss to LSU from likely slipping into the NCAA Tournament. This year, however, was a disaster. Spin it how you’d like — and some will try, certainly — but 4-15 against SEC competition can’t be massaged into a Jordan Davis song about the “Almost Maybes.”
Kermit Davis, it appears, will get a fifth year in Oxford. The case for that decision is this: His team was never fully healthy. Robert Allen suffered a season-ending knee injury in November. Daeshun Ruffin broke his hand and missed several weeks before suffering a season-ending knee injury of his own in a Feb. 1 win at LSU. Jarkel Joiner missed several weeks due to back surgery. The Rebels lost in overtime at Tennessee, at Florida and at home against South Carolina — on a wild half-court shot at the buzzer, no less.
When they were together, Ruffin and sophomore guard Matthew Murrell were a terrific combination. There was a stretch, culminating with Ruffin’s injury in Baton Rouge, when Ole Miss whipped Florida, lost by nine to Arkansas, beat Kansas State by 11 and downed Will Wade’s Tigers by four with Ruffin and Murrell leading the way. Sophomore forward Jaemyn Brakefield showed flashes. So did freshman guard James White here in the final weeks of the season, albeit to a lesser degree. And it should be noted White didn't play a single minute Wednesday.
There are promising prospects in the incoming recruiting class, though recruiting analysts I’ve spoken to believe all four are likely going to need significant development before they’re ready to provide meaningful contributions at the SEC level.
Is that convincing enough? That’s not my call. I think I know what I would do, but I don’t get a vote. No one at Ole Miss is asking my opinion. Of that, no assumptions are necessary.
Frankly, however, you, the fan, have a voice. You always do. The SJB Pavilion wasn’t exactly rocking this season. Other than the game against Auburn on Jan. 15, Ole Miss basketball was never a hot ticket. By the end, when all hope was lost, the arena Ole Miss so proudly calls home was all but dead for SEC games. There’s no way athletics director Keith Carter, a former player who played with fire and passion, didn’t notice.
And then there are numbers — bad numbers — that must be discussed if one is to evaluate Ole Miss’ season in totality. The Rebels were just 1-11 in Quad 1 games. They were a solid 5-2 in Quad 2 games but a stunningly bad 2-6 in Quad 3 games. Five of Ole Miss’ 13 wins came in Quad 4 games.
Ole Miss wasted an early opportunity, blowing a lead against Marquette (NET: 38) in November. That earned a date against Elon (NET: 260) instead of a shot at a higher-ranked opponent. Ole Miss lost to Western Kentucky (NET: 121) in Atlanta and at home to Samford (NET: 173). Those are losses that are difficult to explain away.
If change is coming, Carter has done an amazing job keeping it quiet. If my assumption is correct, next season feels like make-or-break for Davis’ tenure. First thing’s first: Davis must make sure neither Ruffin nor Murrell get into the transfer portal. If either leave, next season is over before it begins, and what comes before the transfer portal is the tampering portal, and the strong rumor is the tampering portal has been quite active.
Brakefield’s game must make major strides. So must White’s if he's going to play any meaningful role. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with veterans such as Austin Crowley, Luis Rodriguez and Sammy Hunter. Do they go elsewhere, looking for a fresh start and/or a bigger role or do they stay in Oxford, gambling that next season will go better than the one that concluded Wednesday?
Tye Fagan figures to return, though there were times this past season his body language wasn’t that of a player fully bought-in. Joiner was recognized during Senior Night festivities prior to this past Saturday’s two-point loss to Vanderbilt and he has said he’s going to seek a professional evaluation. Perhaps he returns, but playing Joiner and Ruffin together on the defensive end will be problematic — and that’s being kind.
The league is a bear, and it’s only getting better next season. Kentucky is Kentucky, but Tennessee will be excellent again next season. Arkansas could be nationally elite. So could Alabama and Auburn. Texas A&M will be much improved. LSU appears to be facing the NCAA hammer, but that’s a loaded roster in Baton Rouge. You get the point. The path to the NCAA Tournament won’t be any less treacherous. If Ole Miss is going to make the leap from 4-15 in league play to participating in March Madness, it will need an influx of talent from the transfer portal and significant improvements from members of the current roster.
Maybe there are additional answers. Maybe this time, Ole Miss will add perimeter shooters who can hit 3-pointers. Maybe it will get longer, more athletic defenders. Ole Miss is No. 114 nationally in adjusted offense and No 104 in adjusted defense, per KenPom. Maybe the Rebels will get luckier. KenPom measures luck and has Ole Miss No. 317 nationally in that category. Maybe. You can build a song around the word. Just ask The Kid LAROI or Enrique Iglesias. Building a basketball team around it feels risky.
I wrote on Feb. 26 that if no major change is coming, Carter and Davis are likely going to have to articulate a plan to get fans to invest their money, time and emotional capital. I still believe that’s true.
First, Davis and everyone associated with the program has to take a long look in the mirror and evaluate where it truly is. There’s plenty of time for reflection. At least six SEC teams are going dancing next week, and at least four of those teams have the goods to play deep into March and maybe beyond.
College basketball takes center stage in the sports world this month, and the painful reality for Ole Miss, a school that doesn’t exactly have a storied history in the sport, is it’s rarely been less relevant than it is today. That’s not acceptable, and by moving forward without significant change, Ole Miss is sending the message that the issues that led to this season’s malaise can be repaired.
Ole Miss fans are left to hope that’s a belief based on honest evaluations and sober introspection and not just an assumption that what happened this season was a combination of bad breaks, injuries and close calls.
Beat writers, in the vacuum created by the lack of news and whispered rumors, can afford to make assumptions regarding the future. Leaders of multi-million-dollar programs who must inspire players and fans alike simply can’t.
