MILWAUKEE — Ole Miss isn’t Cinderella.
Sunday’s second-round game between the Rebels and Iowa State isn’t Rocky Balboa versus Apollo Creed. It’s not the United States versus the Soviet Union in Lake Placid in 1980.
Nope, it’s a matchup of strong basketball teams in Milwaukee battling for a spot in the Sweet 16 next week in Atlanta.
Can Ole Miss (23-11) lose to Iowa State (25-9)? Sure. Absolutely. The Cyclones earned a No. 3 seed for a reason. Las Vegas oddsmakers have Iowa State as a 4.5-point favorite Sunday when the two teams square off at 6:45 p.m. CDT at Fizerv Forum.
Iowa State has wins over Colorado State, Marquette, Iowa, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas, Arizona State, Cincinnati (twice) and Arizona, among others. They’re ranked No. 15 in the latest Associated Press Top 25.
It’s a program with a huge fan following and an excellent pedigree. Iowa State is looking for its eighth Sweet 16 appearance in school history. The Cyclones are trying to make back-to-back Sweet 16 appearances for the first time ever. T.J. Otzelberger is looking to become the 15th coach in NCAA Division I basketball history to take a team to three Sweet 16s in three of his first four years at a school.
In other words, Iowa State is a modern basketball powerhouse, one very capable of making a deep run in this tournament.
That said, no matter how much some critics refuse to give them credit, the Rebels aren’t the Little Engine That Could.
Ole Miss has beaten several teams that were still alive on Saturday. There are only 32 teams that woke up Saturday with a pulse, and Ole Miss has beaten several of those. The Rebels have wins over Colorado State, Alabama, Arkansas (twice), Kentucky and Tennessee. The Rebels very nearly beat Purdue and Texas A&M.
So can they beat Iowa State? Sure. Absolutely.
Iowa State’s nine losses have come to Auburn, West Virginia, Arizona State, Kansas State, Kansas, Houston, Oklahoma State and BYU. The Cyclones have lost four of their last eight games. They’ve very good, but they’re not 1991 UNLV.
The game won’t be decided by history. Ole Miss, after beating North Carolina on Friday in Milwaukee, now has six NCAA Tournament wins in program history. Ole Miss is vying to go to its second Sweet 16. It would be its first since 2001.
On Sunday evening, none of that will matter at all. It might be a media narrative — in fact, it is — but it’s completely immaterial when the ball is tipped.
Sunday will come down to rebounds, turnovers and shots. It will come down to players. It will be decided by Iowa State’s Nate Heise, Milan Momcilovic, Brandtdon Chatfield or someone unexpected. The outcome will be determined by Sean Pedulla, Malik Dia, JuJu Murray or another Rebel who has the biggest game of his life on a huge stage.
Both teams will be prepared. Neither will be happy to just be playing. Both coaches know how hard it is to get to the second round, to get this close to the second weekend. Their teams will be prepared.
For Ole Miss, Friday’s win over North Carolina was proof of concept, a major step for Chris Beard in his second year in Oxford.
Sunday isn’t a litmus test. Not at all. But Sunday is an opportunity, and it was earned — just like every step will be the rest of the way for every team still fighting to get to San Antonio.
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