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Published Sep 1, 2022
Neal's Picks, presented by Service Specialists: Week 1
Neal McCready  •  RebelGrove
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NEAL'S PICKS PALATIAL HEADQUARTERS -- Another football season is upon us.

Here at the Neal's Picks Palatial Headquarters and Estates of America, it comes after an offseason of soul-searching, fat-cutting and energizing. After a two-year championship run, we humbly handed last year's title to Jeffrey Wright.

Yes, there was an agonizing depression that followed. However, those dark, gloomy, despair-filled February days gave way to a sunnier disposition in March. However, those good vibes, we made sure, didn't confuse anyone.

Interns, analysts, number-crunchers, all of the staff at Neal's Picks, were reminded to leave their egos, pronouns, masks and other possible distractions at the door. Everyone received a massive pay cut.

"We'll eat what we kill," I said. "It's time to get hungry."

We brought in motivational speakers, personal trainers, experts in other fields, dieticians, sommeliers and more. We turned over every stone, checked every box.

In the summer, we turned off the air conditioning and let the heat and humidity seep into the offices. We had gotten complacent. Winning does that. We needed anger, hate and revenge to become our motivation. Before one can inflict pain, one must feel pain.

So, we've arrived at Week 1 of a new season. Wright, we hope, has spent his summer so focused on Penny Hardaway and Ja Morant that the football season will catch him unawares. Chase Parham just walks around the Clark Ford Studio chanting, "Omaha. Omaha." There's a chance he's channeling his inner Peyton Manning, but it's far more likely he's trying to summon a sixth or seventh season for Tim Elko. He's not a concern. Brian Rippee, who took over a last-place sinking ship midway through last season and rallied with a finish that left him in contention until the final week, scares us. If someone knows of compromising photos or information that could be used against Rippee, please email compliance@nealspickspalatialheadquarters.com.

Before we get to the Week 1 picks, some notes:

-- If you are the serious type that struggles with sarcasm, this content piece is not for you. Close it. Never, ever open it again. Are you listening, Houston Nutt? What about you, Sean Patterson? Shea, you too. If this makes your blood pressure rise on Thursday mornings, it's simply not your cup of tea. We will make fun of everything here -- each other, Ole Miss, other teams, former teams, cheerleaders, dance teams, fat people, bald people, skinny people, all people. If you're easily offended, this is not for you. This is not a safe space. Political correctness isn't recognized here. Rather, it's mocked. You can't say you weren't warned.

-- We will pick every SEC game, but we'll throw in some other games as well. We'll go all the way to the Super Bowl in February. If the results are not going to the liking of the people at Neal's Picks Palatial Headquarters -- read: me -- other games might be thrown in. The NFL, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, WAC, MAC, the Canadian Football League, north Louisiana high school football, a Saudi Arabian horse race, whatever. It's all fair game. So if provinciality is important to you, again, this might not be your jam.

-- The rankings you'll see are from the Associated Press. We'll use betting lines from DraftKings. Because this content item takes some work, the lines as of Tuesday morning will be what we go with. If there's a push, everyone gets a win. This isn't a democracy.

I think that's all. Happy Football Season, everyone. We at Neal's Picks hopes this gives you a chuckle every Thursday morning and gets you primed for another fun weekend.

On to the picks...

Last season's results

We don't live in the past at Neal's Picks. The past is irrelevant. If you want to go watch Ozzie Smith highlights, this isn't the place for you. If you'd like to watch 2016 World Series highlights, this is the place, but that's the only part of the past we embrace here at Neal's Picks.

This is a forward thinking place, a place where the focus is always on today. If you want to revel in the past, other than that one glorious night in November 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio, or in the two Neal's Picks seasons prior to last year, again, depart now and go in peace. You won't be happy here.

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All times listed Central Daylight Time

Thursday's games

Ball State +32.5 at Tennessee, 6 p.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: Tennessee was just 5-8 ATS last season, and Ball State wasn't horrific. The Cardinals weren't good, mind you. They were 95th nationally in scoring offense, which helped them to a 6-7 season and a loss in the Camelia Bowl. Drew Plitt is gone from Ball State, and I worry about the Cardinals' ability to score in this one, but this number feels a shade high. Neal's Pick: Tennessee 42, Ball State 13

Chase Parham: I spent all week expecting to take Ball State and the points, but Tennessee is nothing if not glad to make hay against bad teams when possible. The Volunteers are better and a trendy pick to compete for an access bowl. I don't share that opinion, but that might not matter against Ball State. UT will score all it can score. Parham's Pick: Tennessee 45, Ball State 10

Jeffrey Wright: God, this line feels like a trap. Tennessee can score in bunches and quickly, and Ball State was one of the luckiest teams in FBS last year going 7-6 with a -56 point differential. However, Tennessee has a big road game next week at Pitt, and Ball State should be able to run it on the Vols enough. I’ll take the points. WRIGHT’S PICK: Tennessee 45, Ball State 17

Brian Rippee: Tennessee returns the quarterback, four offensive line starters and a pair of talented running backs. I think the Vols will play fast, score a lot of points and play an exciting brand of football. But I also think this is too many points, even against what should be a mediocre MAC team. Rippee's Pick: Tennessee 45, Ball State 17

Louisiana Tech +19 at Missouri, 7 p.m., ESPNU

Neal McCready: If you want to put your money on Eliah Drinkwitz, fine with me. Hell, maybe President Biden will forgive that debt, too. Missouri was 0-4 ATS as a home favorite last season and just 1-4 ATS in non-conference games. On the flip side, Sonny Cumbie will be making his Louisiana Tech coaching debut with enough weapons to make the Air Raid quasi-effective. The Tigers win, but I think the number is high. Neal's Pick: Missouri 34, Louisiana Tech 17

Chase Parham: I don't want to watch this game pulling for Missouri to cover a nearly three-touchdown line. That sounds terrible, and it'll be in the middle of our live show and with Tennessee on the other TV. Louisiana Tech is easy to pull for, and Sonny Cumbie doesn't seem like he's always on the verge of getting shoved in a locker. Parham's Pick: Missouri 38, Louisiana Tech 24

Jeffrey Wright: Does Kansas State on the road count as a look ahead? I’m not being smart here, either. I’m genuinely asking. On the one hand, Missouri has a bigger game the next week and could sit guys in the second half leaving the back door wide open for a new coach to keep playing. On the other hand, what if the Bulldogs don’t like their new coach? I’ll take the points because Drinkwitz is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite at Missouri. WRIGHT’S PICK: MISSOURI 38, LOUISIANA TECH 24

Brian Rippee: I know next to nothing yet about what Louisiana Tech is working with from a roster standpoint, but I think Sonny Cumbie is a good coach and I don't think Mizzou is any good. Rippee's Pick: Missouri 35, Louisiana Tech 20


Saturday's games

Sam Houston (No line) at No. 6 Texas A&M, 11 a.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: No team will be more scrutinized this season than Texas A&M. Saturday won't be a test, but exams are coming. Neal's Pick: Texas A&M 52, Sam Houston 6

Chase Parham: Texas A&M is appointment viewing when it's a game the Aggies can lose and completely boring to me in games that are blowouts. This the latter, but I can already feel my excitement for down the road. I'm positive I would pull for the Horns if they played TAMU. Parham's Pick: Texas A&M 42, Sam Houston 13

Jeffrey Wright: I was heartened to see that Ainias Smith’s DUI and weapons charges were dropped because I think we can safely say that Jimbo now has full control of College Station. I would have hated for him to miss this game. WRIGHT’S PICK: Texas A&M 51, Sam Houston State 6

Brian Rippee: Is it too early in the year to joke about me losing a Neal's Picks game with no line? Rippee's Pick: Texas A&M 49, Sam Houston State 14

No. 11 Oregon +17 vs. No. 3 Georgia, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, 2:30 p.m., ABC

Neal McCready: I was in Las Vegas back in July. I took my son to see Chelsea play at Allegiant Stadium and to watch the soon-to-be-injured Chet Holmgren play for the Thunder in the NBA Summer League. I am not a particularly smart man, but I'm not an idiot. Those fancy buildings with the lavish interiors, complete with extravagant water fountain displays, didn't build themselves. Money did. This game is a trap. I shall avoid said trap. Neal's Pick: Georgia 42, Oregon 20

Chase Parham: Talent wins. Everything thinks the line is some type of trap, and that's going to be true one way or the other, but it's possible Georgia just suffocates Oregon and wins ugly. I'm attempting to not overthink this. Take the better team in a virtual home game against a team with a first-year head coach making his debut. Parham's Pick: Georgia 38, Oregon 17

Jeffrey Wright: Georgia is 7-3 ATS against ranked opponents in non-conference games in their last 10 games. Also, Bo Nix is 0-2 ATS/SU against UGA while failing to cover by nearly a touchdown each game. WRIGHT’S PICK: Georgia 34, Oregon 14

Brian Rippee: This feels like a trap but I am usually not shy about taking the bait. Oregon has few NFL-caliber guys on its defense and I don't know what to make of Georgia other than it lost a decent bit off of last year's national championship team but that the program is still loaded with talent: Rippee's Pick: Georgia 27, Oregon 17

No. 23 Cincinnati +6.5 at No. 19 Arkansas, 2:30 p.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: Arkansas was 8-4-1 ATS last season but just 3-3 against the line in games in Fayetteville. Still, the Hogs return damn near everything but wide receiver Traylon Burks. Luke Fickell is terrific and I have no doubt Cincinnati will make noise this season, but they're rolling into northwest Arkansas with a lot of holes to fill. Neal's Pick: Arkansas 31, Cincinnati 23

Chase Parham: Arkansas should be able to control the line of scrimmage and move the ball on the ground. KJ Jefferson does a good job off playaction and can be a load with his feet. Luke Fickell gets a huge opportunity here, but Arkansas should control things. The Bearcats are replacing big stars. That isn't the easiest thing. Parham's Pick: Arkansas 31, Cincinnati 24

Jeffrey Wright: Sam Pittman is 15-7-1 ATS. Go Hogs. WRIGHT’S PICK: Arkansas 31, Cincinnati 20

Brian Rippee: The Bearcats have quite a few holes to fill off of last year's historic team, most notably at quarterback with the departure of Desmond Ritter. Arkansas also lost 11 starters off its 2021 club, but the Razorbacks return K.J. Jefferson and the bulk of their offensive line. I don't have much of a feel for this one. I'll take the points. Rippee's Pick: Arkansas 28, Cincinnati 24

Troy +21.5 at No. 21 Ole Miss, 3 p.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: I know Lane Kiffin wasn't pleased with his team in Saturday's simulated game, and I will be shocked if Jon Sumrall doesn't do big things in fairly short order at Troy. Ole Miss, as of this writing, still hasn't figured out the quarterback position and Troy has some talent on defense, which is Sumrall's side of expertise. Ole Miss wins and wins easily, but I'm not crazy about this number. Neal's Pick: Ole Miss 38, Troy 10

Chase Parham: Jon Sumrall can surprise some in year one, but it doesn't seem like it's in this spot. I expect the Trojans to run a lot and shorten the game if possible while playing decent defense. It's hard to pick a game without knowing the quarterback plan, but if Ole Miss as is good as we maybe think, the Rebels should cover this line. It's a tad high for my liking, though. Parham's Pick: Ole Miss 41, Troy 17

Jeffrey Wright: At Ole Miss Lane Kiffin is 8-4 ATS as a favorite with one of those losses coming in the bowl game after Corral got hurt. While Ole Miss clearly has question marks considering the talent they lost, I still think they can run the ball at will on Troy, and Troy hired a defensive-minded coach, so that’s a sweet spot for me to play a tight fade off the tee. WRIGHT’S PICK: Ole Miss 42, Troy 14

Brian Rippee: Lane Kiffin has yet to make a decision at quarterback, though I figure he has to have told the team something by the time you read this, even if it isn't public. He's seemed more frustrated than encouraged by the quarterback play throughout preseason camp, but Troy shouldn't be much of a challenge. Rippee's Pick: Ole Miss 38, Troy 10

No. 7 Utah -2.5 at Florida, 6 p.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: I know we in the Southeast love to claim some sort of regional superiority as it pertains to games in which egg-shaped balls fly through the air. Utah is a really strong program. The Utes were 10-4 ATS last season, but the Ls came away from Salt Lake City. Still, Utah has a strong run defense and a big, powerful offensive line. I'll lay the points. Neal's Pick: Utah 27, Florida 23

Chase Parham: I've been crowing about Utah all preseason, so I'm locked in on the Utes no matter what. If Florida pulls this off, the Pac-12 may as well just fold up shop before the season even gets going. Parham's Pick: Utah 23, Florida 13

Jeffrey Wright: I can’t decide if I’m on the square side here because I really like Florida in this spot. Utah is a little too trendy for my likings, and I think every square is going to see a Top-10 team as a short favorite against an unranked team and take the Utes. However, what if I just walked right into the trap? Utah is 4-1 ATS when favored by three points or fewer, and Florida is 1-4 ATS against AP ranked opponents in their last five games. Yet, I can’t pass up Florida getting points at home. WRIGHT’S PICK: Florida 27, Utah 24

Brian Rippee: Utah was a much better offense last year when it made the switch to Cam Rising at quarterback. The Utes have a decent bit to replace on defense, but I think they should still be pretty formidable. I really like them in this spot, so, naturally, I will fade myself. I will take Anthony Richardson and the Gators plethora of options at running back to win this outright. Rippee's Pick: Florida 20, Utah 14

Miami (Ohio) +18 at No. 20 Kentucky, 6 p.m., ESPN+

Neal McCready: You know what? I'm high on Kentucky and I'm just going to ride the Wildcats for a bit. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Neal's Pick: Kentucky 42, Miami (Ohio) 20

Chase Parham: UK running back Chris Rodriguez is out for the season opener, and I think he's the one that will benefit most from Will Levis' emergence. I expect a big year from Rodriguez, and if this opponent was any better, I think his absence would change my mind. Parham's Pick: Kentucky 40, Miami (Ohio) 21

Jeffrey Wright: I’m still a little weary of Kentucky this year. I feel like they’ve been so underappreciated for so long that they’re now overrated. Also, Kentucky has Florida next week, and I don’t think they have the firepower to run away and hide. I’ll take the points. Kentucky is just 5-10 ATS as a favorite of 14 points or more in their last 15. WRIGHT’S PICK: Kentucky 31, Miami…of Ohio 20

Brian Rippee: There seems to be a collective eye roll from the common fan when the media fawns over Kentucky's chances to be a factor in the SEC East. I guess count me in on the fawning. I really like the Cats' roster. Levis is a good quarterback and I am fascinated to see what the offense looks like with a Shanahan disciple calling plays in Rich Scangarello. Rippee's Pick: Kentucky 41, Miami (Ohio) 13

Mercer (No Line) at Auburn, 6 p.m., ESPN+

Neal McCready: I expect chaos on the Plains this fall, but not on Saturday night. Neal's Pick: Auburn 41, Mercer 7

Chase Parham: Watching Auburn will be a lot of fun this season. The soap opera is back in full effect on The Plains. Parham's Pick: Auburn 34, Mercer 9

Jeffrey Wright: Farewell tours are so in right now. Shout out to Coach USA. Your farewell tour restored my faith in humanity. Brian Harsin’s farewell tour begins on Saturday with the quarterback he didn’t want to play, and you can see it on ESPN+. WRIGHT’S PICK: AUBURN 38, Mercer 10

Brian Rippee: If Bryan Harsin didn't already feel like a lame duck, his boss that hired him not having his contract renewed likely didn't make him feel much better. Things could get weird on The Plains this year, and by weird, I mean dysfunctional and funny. Rippee's Pick: Auburn 31, Mercer 3

Elon (No Line) at Vanderbilt, 6 p.m., ESPN+

Neal McCready: Look at those 'Dores! Headed to 2-0. Happy for my guy Clark. Neal's Pick: Vanderbilt 52, Elon 10

Chase Parham: The Phoenix will be responsible for Vanderbilt winning back-to-back games. Shame on you, Elon. How about my boy, Ray Davis, though? He had 87 yards and a touchdown against Hawaii. Oh, and he caught a pass. All-purpose back supreme! Parham's Pick: Vandy 30, Elon 10

Jeffrey Wright: I have no idea if Saturday’s performance on the island said more about Vanderbilt this year or Hawaii. My hunch is that it said more about the Warriors seeing as half their team left last year. However, Vandy was incredibly functional, and their patented “Let Mike Wright Run Around and Make Something Happen” offense was effective. However, jetlag going West to East is a real thing, and this game reeks of a sleep walk. WRIGHT’S PICK: Vanderbilt 31, Elon 13

Brian Rippee: Vanderbilt scored 63 points last week against an opponent with matching uniforms and the ability to put 11 players on the field at one time. Elon is not ready for this juggernaut. Rippee's Pick: Vanderbilt 38, Elon 7

Utah State +38.5 at No. 1 Alabama, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: Alabama is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games. Utah State, meanwhile, is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games. The Aggies fell behind Connecticut, 14-0, last Saturday before rallying for a 31-20 win. Alabama is fantastic and will roll teams all year, but I think this number might be a shade high. Neal's Pick: Alabama 48, Utah State 10

Chase Parham: That half point is annoying me, but that means Alabama has to kick a field goal for it to matter. Utah State didn't look good against Connecticut -- I actually watched a lot of that game -- and this won't be a contest. The line is just so damn high. Parham's Pick: Alabama 42, Utah State 13

Jeffrey Wright: Alabama is 12-2 ATS in openers under Nick Saban. Also, if UCONN ran on Utah State, what is Alabama going to do? WRIGHT’S PICK: Alabama 51, Utah State 10

Brian Rippee: The Aggies once trailed UConn 14 nothing last week. They won, but that fleeting moment felt like the noteworthy part, considering how bad UCONN has been. With that said, Saban doesn't love embarrassing opponents in these types of matchups. This feels like it has beat written all over it. Rippee Writes: Alabama 51, Utah State 13

Memphis +16 at Mississippi State, 6:30 p.m., ESPN+

Neal McCready: The Tigers absolutely stunned Mississippi State last year at the Liberty Bowl. I have to think Mike Leach, Will Rogers and Co. are going to be a little extra dialed in on this one Saturday. Neal's Pick: Mississippi State 41, Memphis 17

Chase Parham: I just think State is a lot better, and Will Rogers will do enough to cover this thing. It says more about Memphis than Mississippi State, but there's not much optimism coming out of the Bluff City. Parham's Pick: State 44, Memphis 24

Jeffrey Wright: I hate this game. Leach’s teams often start slow, and the Bulldogs have failed to cover a double-digit spread at home under him. However, Memphis is starting a redshirt freshman at left tackle and has secondary concerns. Memphis only scored two offensive touchdowns last year in this game and went three and out on 54.5 percent of their drives. They also don’t have any proven gamebreakers this season. WRIGHT’S PICK: Mississippi State 34, Memphis 13

Brian Rippee: Will Mike Leach get his revenge on Memphis? Will he run up the score to avenge losing in the pristine palace that is the Liberty Bowl twice in one year? Maybe, but his teams are often sluggish in season openers. Rippee's Pick: Mississippi State 31, Memphis 20


Georgia State +13 at South Carolina, 6:30 p.m., ESPN+

Neal McCready: I think people are a little too wooly on the Gamecocks this fall. Maybe I'm wrong, and if I am, it'll be a really cool story, but the hype feels premature. Georgia State will be absolutely locked in for this game. Neal's Pick: South Carolina 31, Georgia State 21

Chase Parham: I'm riding with South Carolina to be a bit better this season, though the Gamecocks are heavy on the hype train. We misjudge what is improvement. A seven-win season would be a step up for Carolina. It doesn't mean Spencer Rattler is crashing the playoff. And this is a tricky week one. It's just a touch too high. Parham's Pick: South Carolina 27, Georgia State 20

Jeffrey Wright: Shane Beamer is 3-1-1 ATS in non-conference home games. WRIGHT’S PICK: South Carolina 34, Georgia State 17

Brian Rippee: Spencer Rattler's arrival makes the Gamecocks, or whatever type of adult film screen name they are voting to call their mascot, a frisky bunch. But there will likely be some kinks to smooth out. Rippee's Pick: South Carolina 28, Georgia State 17

Sunday's game

Florida State +3.5 vs. LSU, Caesar's Superdome, New Orleans, 6:30 p.m., ABC

Neal McCready: At the risk of being accused of hyping LSU, I really look for the Tigers to dominate Mike Norvell and the 'Noles on Sunday. For the record, I'd pick six -- and maybe even seven -- SEC West teams to defeat Florida State in games played in the Superdome (or Ukraine or anywhere else, for that matter). Neal's Pick: LSU 31, Florida State 20

Chase Parham: It's essentially a home game for Brian Kelly's debut and against a name opponent that's seen better days. Florida State looked sluggish against Duquesne, but I do worry a bit about the Noles already playing a game -- cliche of most. improvement between the first and and second game and all. I have LSU to cover, but I don't think this is a pushover game. Parham's Pick: LSU 24, FSU 20

Jeffrey Wright: This line absolutely terrifies me. Virtually all of the money is on LSU and the line hasn’t really moved. However, I’m going to trust Brian Kelly in this spot. Since 2018, his teams were 40-0 as a favorite and racked up a 26-14 record against the spread. I know it is the square side, but I’m not taking Florida State in New Orleans against LSU. I can live with losing on LSU here, but I can’t with Florida State. WRIGHT’S PICK: LSU 31, FSU 21

Brian Rippee: LSU should be a fascinating team this year. Brian Kelly hit the transfer portal nearly as hard as Lane Kiffin did. That, coupled with a decent bit of holdover talent on the roster he inherited should have the Tigers competitive in most games. I don't think LSU will be great, but I like them in this spot because of Florida State's shaky offensive line play. Rippee's pick: LSU 31, Florida State 20

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