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Published Nov 4, 2021
Neal's Picks, presented by Service Specialists: Week 10
Neal McCready  •  RebelGrove
Publisher

NEAL'S PICKS PALATIAL HEADQUARTERS -- It was a disaster.

We were prepared. Yes, we knew we were going into a week of the schedule that is almost always deadly, and yes, we knew we were going into that week injured, but we entered the week with confidence.

Yes, we made mistakes. We bet on Jim Harbaugh in a rivalry game knowing the Michigan coach doesn’t win rivalry games. Ever. We bet on Texas, falling for the allure of those great uniforms and their sexy cheerleader outfits, eschewing the common sense and discipline of Dave Aranda’s Bears.

We bet on Missouri and laid 17 points. Seventeen! We bet on Texas Tech at Oklahoma, knowing the Red Raiders had already fired their coach days earlier.

We bet on Kentucky at Mississippi State, failing to acknowledge just how favorable the Wildcats’ schedule has been. We bet on Ohio State to cover a massive line against a wounded James Franklin-coach team. We’d probably do that one again, if we’re being honest. Sometimes stuff just happens, right?

And we bet on Phil Longo at Notre Dame. My God! Were we drunk? Did someone hit us all on the head here at the Neal’s Picks Palace last week? Did one of the Swedish interns lace the vodka with a hallucinogen?

It was a Tour de Force of mistakes. The film, if you will, is difficult to look at. So much success lost in a single week.

We have a choice. We can own it or we can blame the oddsmakers, the other participants and the distractions.

We’re damn sure not owning it. It’s not our fault. We’re not sure whose fault it is — probably Jeffrey’s — but it’s damn sure not ours.

On to the picks…

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Standings

Last Week:

Neal McCready: 5-5 overall, 2-8 ATS

Chase Parham: 6-4 overall, 4-6 ATS

Jeffrey Wright: 5-5 overall, 4-6 ATS

Brian Rippee: 5-5 overall, 3-7 ATS

For The Season:

Neal McCready: 74-27 overall, 45-46 ATS

Chase Parham: 75-26 overall, 45-46 ATS

Jeffrey Wright: 73-28 overall, 52-39 ATS

Brian Rippee: 72-29 overall, 42-49 ATS

All games Saturday

All times Central Daylight Time

All rankings via Associated Press

Army +2.5 vs. Air Force, Globe Life Park, Arlington, Texas, 10:30 a.m., CBS

Neal McCready: I was going to go with Air Force here, but my friend, Frank Nucaro, sent me a cool Army Football shirt this week. That's clearly a sign. Neal's Pick: Army 27, Air Force 24

Chase Parham: I have a lot more Army gear, courtesy of Frank, than Air Force gear. So I'm will equipped to rep the Black Knights after they get this win. Parham's Pick: Army 20, Air Force 17

Jeffrey Wright: Army as an underdog against Air Force is just 4-16 straight up and is 8-12 Against the Spread. Also, my numbers show that Air Force is slightly undervalued here and should be laying more. WRIGHT’S PICK: AIR FORCE 20, ARMY 14

Brian Rippee: I have a cousin that went to West Point. It sounds cool when he says the phrase "surviving Plebe Year." Also, Army put up 56 Wake. That is literally all I know about them. Rippee's Pick: Army 28, Air Force 24

Missouri +38 at No. 1 Georgia, 11 a.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: I'm just not going to overthink Georgia games. Yes, it's a ton of points, but the Bulldogs can beat anyone as badly as they want to. Neal's Pick: Georgia 49, Missouri 7

Chase Parham: The line is stupid. Ridiculous. Then I remember what Georgia did to Vandy and what Vandy almost did to Missouri. The line doesn't seem so ridiculous anymore. Parham's Pick: Georgia 49, Missouri 6

Jeffrey Wright: Double principle play here, Missouri is playing, so I will be betting against them. Additionally, Georgia is playing, so I will be betting on them. WRIGHT’S PICK: GEORGIA 56, MISSOURI 0

Brian Rippee: What an absurd line. I am going to fight my own dumb brain on this, which would have normally convinced me that this is too many points , and just take the defense that is mesmerizing to watch. Rippee's Pick: Georgia 42, Missouri 0

Liberty +9 at No. 15 Ole Miss, 11 a.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: Yes, Ole Miss is beaten up on the offensive side of the ball. Yes, Hugh Freeze will have his team ready to play and yes, Malik Willis is a handful. However, there's no reason Ole Miss can't grind out a fairly easy win Saturday. That's exactly what I expect. Neal's Pick: Ole Miss 31, Liberty 17

Chase Parham: I think this thing is Ole Miss up 10-14 points starting the fourth quarter and people being a little nervous before it all settles down the rest of the way. Parham's Pick: Ole Miss 38, Liberty 27

Jeffrey Wright: WRIGHT’S PICK: OLE MISS 42, LIBERTY 24

Brian Rippee: Malik Willis is good enough to make this thing weird for a little bit if Ole Miss doesn't come out sharp. But let's be honest here, Liberty doesn't have the athletes to pull this off. The Rebels would benefit from putting this one away early and resting come guys. Rippee's Pick: Ole Miss 45, Liberty 20

No. 12 Auburn +4 at No. 13 Texas A&M, 2:30 p.m., CBS

Neal McCready: These two teams remind me of one another quite a bit. They're both physical. They both like to run and dictate the pace of the game defensively. Auburn has been playing well, but the Aggies have been playing better. Neal's Pick: Texas A&M 30, Auburn 24

Chase Parham: The matchup doesn't seem good for the Tigers. I like Bo Nix more than most people, but TAMU can get after you with its front seven, and I think the Aggies can grind the game down a little bit. Parham's Pick: TAMU 37, Auburn 30

Jeffrey Wright: I think teams with good defensive fronts are going to present problems for Auburn. At times, Ole Miss was able to stuff the run. Texas A&M’s defense is closer to Georgia’s than it is to Ole Miss’s. WRIGHT’S PICK: TEXAS A&M 31, AUBURN 23

Brian Rippee: These teams are similar versions of each other. Texas A&M has a slightly better defensive front and a better secondary. Who has the better quarterback? I am not sure but for some strange reason, I think Bo Nix continues this recent run of good play on the road. He makes one highlight play that's enough to give Auburn a win and an outcome that might not make a ton of sense to those that watched. Rippee's Pick: Auburn 21, Texas A&M 17

Mississippi State +5.5 at Arkansas, 3 p.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: Arkansas really relies on its running game to set everything else up. They ran on Texas and Ole Miss but struggled to get the running game going against Auburn. The Hogs have had a couple of weeks off, sure, but Mississippi State is a solid defense and the Bulldogs are using the passing game as a running game of their own. I'll take the better team and the points, even on the road. Neal's Pick: Mississippi State 30, Arkansas 27

Chase Parham: State played well last week, and Will Rogers mastered what that offense is supposed to look like. It was a clinic. However, Arkansas has had some time to regroup emotionally, and this feels like a difficult week for the Bulldogs to replicate things. Parham's Pick: Arkansas 31, MSU 23

Jeffrey Wright: There is a lot of early money on Mississippi State here. However, I like the spot for Arkansas. They’re coming off of the bye, and the Bulldogs will be playing their fourth-consecutive SEC game if you consider Vanderbilt an SEC game. WRIGHT’S PICK: ARKANSAS 27, MISSISSIPPI STATE 20

Brian Rippee: Mississippi State is playing good football and has three nice wins. I think that was reflected in its CFP ranking. I just think the Bulldogs are in a tough spot here with Arkansas off a bye. The Razorbacks had a brutal four-week stretch that included essentially three road games. They get back on track on Saturday. Rippee's Pick: Arkansas 28, Mississippi State 17

LSU +28.5 at No. 3 Alabama, 6 p.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: See my Georgia pick. Neal's Pick: Alabama 48, LSU 10

Chase Parham: I refuse to even think about this at all. Parham's Pick: Alabama 45, LSU 9

Jeffrey Wright: Since 2017, Alabama is 13-6 ATS at home in SEC play, and they’re 9-3 ATS when the point spread is under 30. WRIGHT’S PICK: ALABAMA 48, LSU 17

Brian Rippee: Ed Orgeron said he meant no disrespect when asked about his now infamous "Roll Tide what? F**k you?" episode in the visiting locker room of Bryant-Denny in 2019. I think Nick Saban means a lot of disrespect on Saturday. Rippee's Pick: Alabama 55, LSU 14

Tennessee +3 at No. 18 Kentucky, 6 p.m., ESPN2

Neal McCready: For some reason, I think Tennessee is ready to pop someone. The Vols played Ole Miss and Alabama very well. Give Josh Heupel credit; he's done a good job. Basketball season arrives Saturday night in Lexington. Neal's Pick: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 30

Chase Parham: Kentucky is getting back to good football this week. It's UK so 11-1 was never going to happen, but now that the world has righted itself a little bit, the Wildcats will beat Tennessee. We're overvaluing the Vols here. Parham's Pick: Kentucky 30, Tennessee 21

Jeffrey Wright: I just think Tennessee is better. WRIGHT’S PICK: TENNESSEE 31, KENTUCKY 28

Brian Rippee: I think these are two pretty evenly matched teams. Kentucky has more depth. I might have picked Tennessee if the game was in Knoxville but it isn't. Rippee's Pick: Kentucky 28, Tennessee 24

Florida -19.5 at South Carolina, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: It was a chaotic week in Gainesville, as rumors swirl that Dan Mullen is trying to extricate himself from Florida. The carousel will turn, and unlike when Mullen was in Starkville, he's got the right agent to get out if he's desperate enough. Neal's Pick: Florida 41, South Carolina 17

Chase Parham: Florida isn't great, but South Carolina is bad. Like beat Vanderbilt on the last play bad. They fight hard, but bad is bad. Parham's Pick: Florida 38, Carolina 17

Jeffrey Wright: I think I want to do this because it makes no sense. WRIGHT’S PICK: FLORIDA 42, SOUTH CAROLINA 17

Brian Rippee: Dan Mullen doesn't want to talk about recruiting. I imagine Shane Beamer would love to talk about recruiting given what he is currently working with on the field. Rippee's Pick: Florida 42, South Carolina 10

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Texas +7 at Iowa State, 6:30 p.m., FS1

Neal McCready: What a week for the 'Horns, huh? It's almost like, no matter who's in charge, the whole place is a mess. Neal's Pick: Iowa State 30, Texas 21

Chase Parham: One of these teams is a stable, quality program that seems set up to win a lot of games for the foreseeable future with a good young coach. The other team is Texas. Parham's Pick: Iowa State 38, Texas 30

Jeffrey Wright: Texas is back...in the first half. Unfortunately they play two of them, and I think Iowa State might have some frustration to release after their ending in West Virginia. Shame on the Big XII writers for scripting that brutal of an ending. WRIGHT’S PICK: IOWA STATE 31, TEXAS 21

Brian Rippee: Pole Assassin's monkey is innocent until proven guilty. Just had to get that out there given the ridiculous smear campaign he (or she) is enduring via the lamestream media. Texas, however, is guilty until proven innocent when it comes to not finishing games, particularly on the road. Rippee's Pick: Iowa State 35, Texas 24

Southern Cal +8 at Arizona State, 9:30 p.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: Arizona State has problems. USC is a problem. Neal's Pick: Arizona State 34, USC 20

Chase Parham: I may be in bed before this even kicks off. Parham's Pick: Arizona State 31, USC 24

Jeffrey Wright: I’m fading USC against any team that is physical. Arizona State is physical, despite their showing last week. WRIGHT’S PICK: ARIZONA STATE 31, USC 13

Brian Rippee: Arizona State doesn't seem like a total disaster? Rippee's Pick: Arizona State 28, USC 14

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