NEAL'S PICKS PALATIAL HEADQUARTERS -- It's rivalry week.
Everyone says that means you can throw out the record books.
So let's do it. Let's throw out the record books. Let's put the whole damn year in the trash and pretend it didn't happen. Let's start fresh now. That 3-8 week? Didn't happen. Picking Florida to beat Missouri? I don't remember that anymore. Picking South Alabama to cover in Knoxville? Amnesia, baby! Taking LSU to cover 28.5 against Harvard on the Bayou was a bad look, but this week, there are no receipts.
It's a new beginning, a new world.
Hell, yes.
Who says no? Who doesn't want to just throw the past away and stare into a perfectly serene present, knowing a win on that day erases all of the negativity of previous Saturdays?
God, it feels good to be this fresh, this clean, this perfect. This must be how it feels for a minister in Lynchburg, Va., awakening to a sunrise on the mountain just after hours after he spent the night watching his wife...
Whoa! Wait, never mind. Fresh starts. New beginnings. I went too far. I'm not sure one could totally throw that "record book" out.
Happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy your turkey. Even if, in the past, your turkeys have always been a bit dry, a tad overcooked, today's turkey can be perfect. And if it is, well, today is all that matters.
On to the picks...
Neal’s Picks are presented by Service Specialists. With offices in Ridgeland, Canton, Jackson and Oxford, Service Specialists has been connecting candidates and employers since 1967 as the oldest staffing company in Mississippi.
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Standings
Last Week:
Neal McCready: 11-4 overall, 5-7 ATS
Chase Parham: 12-3 overall, 5-7 ATS
Jeffrey Wright: 12-3 overall, 5-7 ATS
Brian Rippee: 14-1 overall, 8-4 ATS
For The Season:
Neal McCready: 99-39 overall, 60-64 ATS
Chase Parham: 100-38 overall, 59-65 ATS
Jeffrey Wright: 102-36 overall, 68-56 ATS
Brian Rippee: 102-36 overall, 59-65 ATS
All odds via DraftKings
All times Central Standard Time
Thursday's game
No. 8 Ole Miss +1 at Mississippi State, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Neal McCready: Oh, hell, I'm really torn here. I think Ole Miss is the better team, but I think State is playing better of late. That said, I think Matt Corral is going to will his team to a win Thursday night or damn near die trying. I think this game has a chance to be an absolute classic. Neal's Pick: Ole Miss 30, Mississippi State 28
Chase Parham: I don't have a great reason for this at all, but I just think Mississippi State wins this football game. I think Matt Corral does everything imaginable to get it done, and I think he runs more like earlier in the season. But I think red zone may be an issue, and the Bulldogs will stress Ole Miss at the second level defensively. It's possible the Ole Miss defense rises up again and I end up with egg on my face. I hope I'm wrong. Corral deserves this one. Parham's Pick: MSU 34, Ole Miss 31
Jeffrey Wright: As a handicapper, I do not know how you could have strong conviction in this game either way. I guess that’s why the line is essentially a pick. As a home favorite, MSU is just 1-5 ATS against Ole Miss and just 3-3 Straight up. The formula is pretty simple in this game. Don’t turn it over. The Bulldogs are +5 in turnover margin in their seven wins while they’re -5 in losses. Ole Miss leads the SEC in turnover margin and ranks No. 3 nationally. They also lead the conference in turnover margin during conference play. I think the way to beat Ole Miss is to run at them, and Mississippi State doesn’t want to do that. WRIGHT’S PICK: OLE MISS 28, MISSISSIPPI STATE 24
Brian Rippee: I have had trouble getting a feel for this game all week. It's a strange matchup no matter which side you are viewing it from. Ole Miss is healthier on offense than it has been in some time and the defense has played better football over the second half of the season. Mississippi State is playing as well as anyone in the league right now. With all of that in mind, Ole Miss hasn't lost a game in which the opponent torched its secondary all night and while the Bulldogs have run it more in the last few weeks, it's still not enough to hurt Ole Miss. Rippee's Pick: Ole Miss 35, Mississippi State 24
Friday's game
Missouri +14 at No. 25 Arkansas, 2:30 p.m., CBS
Neal McCready: I've gotten Arkansas wrong the last couple of weeks. No more. I'm taking the Hogs and laying the points, common sense be damned. Neal's Pick: Arkansas 41, Missouri 24
Chase Parham: Consider me fully in the trap. It's just too many damn points, though Arkansas is clearly the better team. The Tigers have been better of late. Parham's Pick: Arkansas 38, Missouri 28
Jeffrey Wright: Color me skeptical, but I think Vegas is begging you to take the points here. The SEC West is 9-2 against the SEC East in the Non-Georgia division. Woo Pig. WRIGHT’S PICK: ARKANSAS 38, MISSOURI 21
Brian Rippee: This one feels like a trap, but I become more impressed with K.J. Jefferson every time I watch him and I think Arkansas's run defense is more than equipped to prevent Tyler Badie from running wild on them. Rippee's Pick: Arkansas 38, Missouri 20
Saturday's games
No. 1 Georgia -35 at Georgia Tech, 11 a.m., ABC
Neal McCready: Don't overthink it. Neal's Pick: Georgia 52, Georgia Tech 7
Chase Parham: The line is stupid, but Geoff Collins has really struggled in Atlanta. The field for this one is also one where I have a Rebels win circled early next season. Georgia will suffocate the Jackets. Parham's Pick: Georgia 48, Tech 6
Jeffrey Wright: Sure. WRIGHT’S PICK: GEORGIA 45, GEORGIA TECH 6
Brian Rippee: I was so bored at my desk at work the other day, I read an entire Athletic column on why Geoff Collins hasn't worked out so far in Atlanta. Truthfully, I had forgotten he coached there. So consider me well-researched and locked into this matchup. Rippee's Pick Georgia 45, Georgia Tech 7
No. 2 Ohio State -7.5 at No. 6 Michigan, 11 a.m., FOX
Neal McCready: Ohio State is a damn good team. Michigan is playing a big game. This is easy. Neal's Pick: Ohio State 41, Michigan 14
Chase Parham: Ohio State seems to be hitting its stride, while Michigan has had a hell of a season but doesn't seem ready for this step up in class. The Buckeyes are the class of the conference, and I'm going to be quite hard-headed about this one. Parham's Pick: Ohio State 41, Michigan 27
Jeffrey Wright: I’ll be the sucker. Ohio State has failed to cover the number against every defense they’ve faced ranked inside the Top-25 in SP+ Defense. Michigan can get after the passer, and Shroud’s passer rating falls nearly 40 points when pressured. I know I’m going to regret this bet after the first possession, but I think Ohio State is priced too highly. WRIGHT’S PICK: OHIO STATE 27, MICHIGAN 21
Brian Rippee: Ohio State looks scary on offense right now and C.J. Stroud may have won the Heisman with his performance last week. But I think the Buckeyes are a tad overvalued here after what they did to the Michigan State's league-worst passing defense. Michigan's secondary is much better. If not now, then when for Jim Harbaugh in this rivalry. Here's a crazy one for you. Rippee's Pick Michigan 21, Ohio State 17
Florida State +2 at Florida, 11 a.m., ESPN
Neal McCready: Two bad teams. Only one cares. I get points with that one. Either way, I'm happy. Neal's Pick: Florida State 31, Florida 30
Chase Parham: Mike Norvell should just take the gift and be glad he can sort of fool the Seminoles into thinking his tenure is going to work longterm. FSU had definitely played for him, but the ceiling isAun't very high. Parham's Pick: FSU 24, Florida 20
Jeffrey Wright: What side is the trap? I think Florida has quit while Florida State continues to play hard. WRIGHT’S PICK: FLORIDA STATE 28, FLORIDA 24
Brian Rippee: Florida State went to Boston College last week at 4-6, needing a win to keep their bowl hopes alive. The Seminoles built up a 26-3 lead, and though it was an adventure late in the game, they won and are playing hard. That makes this one easy. Rippee's Pick: Florida State 28, Florida 20
No. 3 Alabama -19.5 at Auburn, 2:30 p.m., CBS
Neal McCready: If you want to throw the records out, go for it. I'll throw the records in. Neal's Pick: Alabama 45, Auburn 13
Chase Parham: I was at least intrigued with this one before Bo Nix got hurt. Now it's just a tune-up for Alabama before Georgia steps into the arena. That one won't go well, but this one is just fine for the Tide. Parham's Pick: Alabama 38, Auburn 17
Jeffrey Wright: Anyone remember T.J.'s last start against Alabama? He completed 50-percent of his passes on 5.0 yards per attempt. So, while he didn’t throw it down the field, he also wasn’t accurate when doing so. WRIGHT’S PICK: ALABAMA 38, AUBURN 17
Brian Rippee: This game looked a hell of a lot more interesting on November 1st than it does now. Alabama's defense will torment T.J. Finley and Alabama's speed at receiver will torch Auburn's secondary. Rippee's Pick: Alabama 42, Auburn 10
Vanderbilt +31 at Tennessee, 2:45 p.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: I think Ole Miss got Vanderbilt's best shot. I think the 'Dores will play hard, but I do think they're running into a buzzsaw. Neal's Pick: Tennessee 48, Vanderbilt 14
Chase Parham: Tennessee has no issue running things up. Consider that the situation here. Ole Miss went through the motions. The Vols won't do that since it's the last week of the regular season. UT wants a good taste prior to bowl season. Parham's Pick: Tennessee 51, Vandy 16
Jeffrey Wright: Bet on Josh Huepel to cover this year when he’s not playing anyone with a pulse. WRIGHT’S PICK: TENNESSEE 52, VANDERBILT 17
Brian Rippee: The Commodores emptied the tank last week and Josh Heupel will not be merciful. Rippee's Pick: Tennessee 52, Vandebilt 14
No. 14 Texas A&M -6.5 at LSU, 6 p.m., ESPN
Neal McCready: I think LSU is going to play very, very hard. Then I think LSU's administration is going to hope Jimbo Fisher stays in Baton Rouge. He won't. Neal's Pick: Texas A&M 27, LSU 20
Chase Parham: I just don't see how LSU cares here. I know the Tigers have been spirited at times this season, but I just don't see it. TAMU is better and can do more when it's just trying to win and move on. However, TAMU is still all it ever was -- a team with inexplicable losses. Parham's Pick: TAMU 30, LSU 20
Jeffrey Wright: Can a road environment truly be hostile when you’re trying to court the opponent’s coach? Also, what if the stadium is half full (big glass-half-full guy)? WRIGHT’S PICK: TEXAS A&M 24, LSU 14
Brian Rippee: It would be both awkward and hysterical if a "we want Jimbo" chant broke out during this game, even if it is wishful thinking. Texas A&M is much better and will run it well on an LSU team that continues to surprise me with its effort each week. Rippee's Pick: Texas A&M 27, LSU 14
No. 10 Oklahoma +3.5 at No. 7 Oklahoma State, 6:30 p.m., ABC
Neal McCready: I really want to see Bedlam in person. It just looks fun. For some reason, I think this is Oklahoma State's year. The teams headed to the SEC are taking everyone's best shot. That'll be the case in Stillwater. Neal's Pick: Oklahoma State 34, Oklahoma 30
Chase Parham: Oklahoma has low-key kind of sucked this year, but its schedule hasn't been able to take advantage of it. The Cowboys are a legitimately good team. Parham's Pick: OSU 27, Oklahoma 23
Jeffrey Wright: I’ll take the bait here. I think Oklahoma has been consistently overvalued all season while the Pokes have been a profit machine. They have good kids in Stillwater. WRIGHT’S PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE 27, OKLAHOMA 20
Brian Rippee: I think Oklahoma State is better. Even in a win and cover last week, Oklahoma made it look unpleasant. Gundy gets one in the Bedlam series this year. Rippee's Pick: Oklahoma State 35, Oklahoma 24
Kentucky +2.5 at Louisville, 6:30 p.m., ESPN2
Neal McCready: I want Kentucky to win this game. But I want a lot of things. Wanting something doesn't make it so. Neal's Pick: Louisville 31, Kentucky 28
Chase Parham: For some reason I'm pulling for Louisville here. What's wrong with me? Do I have a fever? Speaking of Kentucky, I hope Jon Sumrall gets the Troy job if he wants it. Parham's Pick: Louisville 34, Kentucky 30
Jeffrey Wright: What am I missing here? Louisville has two wins against teams with a winning record, UCF during Week 3 (they got a pick-six to win) and Boston College (who was playing their backup quarterback). Give me the Cats. WRIGHT’S PICK: KENTUCKY 24, LOUISVILLE 21
Brian Rippee: I think Louisville is better than I figured it would be after watching them Labor Day night but look at the Cardinals' schedule and who they have beaten. I'll take the SEC team that has a pulse on defense. Rippee's Pick: Kentucky 28, Louisville 24
Clemson -11.5 at South Carolina, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network:
Neal McCready: Clemson looked like it put things together last week, dammit. I really hope I'm wrong here, as I'd love to watch Dabo and Co. lose in Williams-Brice, but I don't see it happening. Neal's Pick: Clemson 34, South Carolina 21
Chase Parham: Please Lord let South Carolina pull this off. I know Columbia can be a tough place to play at night, and Clemson can go dormant offensively. I know it won't happen but please... Parham's Pick: Clemson 27, Carolina 13
Jeffrey Wright: Do I think Clemson can score 12? Yes. WRIGHT’S PICK: CLEMSON 28, SOUTH CAROLINA 10
Brian Rippee: Clemson looked so much better offensively last week against Wake and South Carolina needed some good fortune to knock off an Auburn team with a backup quarterback. This is a dumb pick, but consider me a Gamecocks homer. I think this is a close game in the fourth quarter and South Carolina will have a legitimate shot to win it. I have enjoyed this Shane Beamer story. Rippee's Pick: Clemson 24, South Carolina 21