NEAL'S PICKS PALATIAL HEADQUARTERS -- So it was a bad start.
We made some rookie mistakes. For example, just lay the points with Alabama. Just do it. Don't think. Just lay the points. That won't happen again.
We gave a MAC team the benefit of the doubt. Stupid. We bet on a Pac-12 team on the road in the South. Idiotic. Unforced errors.
Ole Miss burned us a bit, but hey, a bad snap and a bad read happen in Game 1. We're still prepared to make some money off the Rebels this fall.
We didn't foresee Georgia State and LSU collapsing on special teams. But hey, those are excuses.
Live and learn. Watch the tape, make adjustments and move into Week 2.
The lead isn't insurmountable, and hey, at least we're not in Rippee's shoes after Week 1. His picks were worse than Iowa's offense.
It's a full slate this week. Championships aren't won in September, but they can be lost. So I scolded the interns and turned my full attention to this week. A bounce back is in order. On to the picks...
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Last Week:
Neal McCready: 12-2 overall, 4-7 ATS
Chase Parham: 12-2 overall, 6-5 ATS
Jeffrey Wright: 13-1 overall, 6-5 ATS
Brian Rippee: 13-1 overall, 2-9 ATS
All games Saturday
All times listed Central Daylight Time
All betting odds via DraftKings
Missouri +8 at Kansas State, 11 a.m., ESPN2
Neal McCready: I waffled on this one. I originally went with the Wildcats, but worried about Adrian Martinez and then switched back to Mizzou. I'm going to stick with my gut here and go with Deuce Vaughn and Co. I don't know what I think of the Tigers, but at some point, somebody's going to have to start to suck. Neal's Pick: Kansas State 31, Missouri 20
Chase Parham: This line is bothering me. I wanted Missouri to just suck and let that be what it is, but that's not what happened. Instead, the Tigers were ok and better than expected. Kansas State at home should definitely be the favorite, but this is too many points. Parham's Pick: Kansas State 34, Missouri 30
Jeffrey Wright: I can already tell that Missouri is going to be that team that I cannot get on the right side of this year. My instinct just says that they shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown plus. Since 2017, KSU has been a home favorite of more than six on four occasions against power five opponents. They are 1-3 ATS in those games, and you don’t get rich betting on Adrian Martinez. WRIGHT’S PICK: Kansas State 31, Missouri 27
Brian Rippee: Missouri took care of business last week and looked a little better both on offense and defense than I anticipated. I am not sure how real that is, but I'll go with the SEC school getting more than a touchdown. Rippee's Pick: Kansas State 31, Missouri 28.
Alabama -18.5 at Texas, 11 a.m., FOX
Neal McCready: I'm sure everyone in Austin will handle this rationally, but welcome to the SEC, boys and girls (and those who identify as both or neither; certainly not here to offend). If Alabama wants to cover -- and Saban does; I truly believe that -- Alabama will cover. Neal's Pick: Alabama 41, Texas 17
Chase Parham: Texas wasn't ready for Arkansas last year. What in God's name makes us believe the Horns are going to be ready for the A that has the mullet? I have a sense Nick Saban wants a bit of a statement here. Parham's Pick: Alabama 48, Texas 13
Jeffrey Wright: Sure. WRIGHT’S PICK: Alabama 45, Texas 20
Brian Rippee: It feels like everyone is on Alabama here, so I guess I will be that guy and take Texas. It's not like it can get any worse than last week for me, or, can it? Rippee's Pick: Alabama 35, Texas 17
Wake Forest -6 at Vanderbilt, 11 a.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: The Neal's Picks rules give us a gift here. The line moved after we'd set it. I'll contribute 10 percent of my winnings to a charity -- the McCready Children's College Fund of America. Neal's Pick: Wake Forest 37, Vanderbilt 20
Chase Parham: I legitimately hurt for Vanderbilt when I saw Wake got its quarterback back. Ray Davis can't do this alone, though he's going to try like hell. Parham's Pick: Wake Forest 34, Vanderbilt 20
Jeffrey Wright: These two schools are trying to accomplish the same agenda yet one is in year nine while the other is in year two. WRIGHT’S PICK: Wake Forest 38, Vanderbilt 24
Brian Rippee: Vanderbilt has looked more like an FBS football team the last two weeks, but I don't think it will be enough to hang around here. Rippee's Pick: Wake Forest 35, Vanderbilt 14
South Carolina +8.5 at Arkansas, 11 a.m., ESPN
Neal McCready: This feels like a trap. The Hogs got beat up in the secondary, but South Carolina isn't exactly a passing juggernaut. I'm sure Arkansas is worried about special teams, but otherwise, this feels like a cover. Neal's Pick: Arkansas 31, South Carolina 21
Chase Parham: South Carolina has been a media darling, and Shane Beamer has done a hell of a job, but the Gamecocks don't seem ready for primetime. This may be a reminder that there's a long way to go to even the middle of the pack. Parham's Pick: Arkansas 27, Carolina 17
Jeffrey Wright: This line stinks. Most analytics and power ratings believe you should take the points. We know better. Sam Pittman is now 16-7-1 ATS as the head coach of the Hogs. Also, the Baylor Briles offense carved up South Carolina 45-20 when they played Tennessee last. WRIGHT’S PICK: Arkansas 35, South Carolina 24
Brian Rippee: I knew this game was at 11 a.m. solely from looking at the fishy line and not the actual time of the game. Arkansas looked really good last week, but lost a couple of defensive backs. I am not sure how, but I have a strange feeling South Carolina gives the Razorbacks a scare here. Rippee's Pick: Arkansas 27, South Carolina 23.
Appalachian State +17 at Texas A&M, 2:30 p.m., ESPN2
Neal McCready: Appalachian State got lit up by North Carolina, and bad news for the boys from Boone: The Aggies are going to be just a bit more physical than the Tar Heels on the defensive side of the ball. I think we're going to be some Aggie drama this fall, but not on Saturday. Neal's Pick: Texas A&M 45, Appalachian State 23
Chase Parham: I felt bad for App State last week, but you can't spot Phil Long three touchdowns and expect to come out alive. The Tar Heels are a bad 2-0 team. The Aggies are about to be a big step up in class. Parham's Pick: Texas A&M 44, App State 24
Jeffrey Wright: Do I think Texas A&M’s offense is still not very good? Yes. Am I concerned that Haynes King has thrown six interceptions on 70 attempts? Yes. Am I concerned that A&M will cover? No. I’ve got Chase Brice against the defense that allows the fourth-fewest points per drive, and he just played North Carolina last week. That’s a stark contrast that you cannot prepare for. WRIGHT’S PICK: Texas A&M 34, Appalachian State 7
Brian Rippee: The Mountaineers must be reeling after what the North Carolina offense did to them a week ago. I am not completely sold on Haynes King yet, but I do love the pieces around him enough to not sweat this too much. Rippee's Pick: Texas A&M 38, Appalachian State 14
Tennessee -4.5 at Pittsburgh, 2:30 p.m., ABC
Neal McCready: I think the Vols' offense is going off on Saturday. If West Virginia can abuse the Panthers' defense, Tennessee might destroy it. Kedon Slovis will have his moments, but I think this is going to be a feather in the SEC cap Saturday. Neal's Pick: Tennessee 41, Pittsburgh 27
Chase Parham: This is a really fun game on Saturday that will tell us a lot about both teams. I think Kentucky, Florida and Tennessee will all fight for the second place spot in the SEC East, and Pittsburgh has a decent shot to play contender in the ACC. Big early momentum game that will say a lot about how these teams are viewed. Parham's Pick: Tennessee 38, Pitt 30
Jeffrey Wright: Since 2017, Pitt is 13-14-1 ATS as an underdog. In those 13 covers, nine have been outright winners, and three of the four covers (during losses) have been on the road. Therefore, my conclusion is that if you want to take Pitt here, you need to believe they will win the game. I do not believe they will win the game. Yes, I think they can run the ball on Tennessee, but I saw far too many open WRs against West Virginia to feel comfortable that they will get the necessary stops. Also, if Bryce Ford-Wheaton just hangs on to the ball, they were going down the field to score. WRIGHT’S PICK: Tennessee 38, Pitt 28
Brian Rippee: This is a lot of points for a road favorite in a game like this. West Virginia had some success moving the football against Pitt once it found a couple of run concepts that the Panthers had no answer for. I was impressed with Pitt's defensive line and its resolve despite playing a pretty poor game collectively. I really want to take the Vols here, but this is a tough environment and a lot of points. Rippee's Pick: Pitt 34, Tennessee 30.
Samford (No Line) at Georgia, 3 p.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: If my son played at Samford, I'd be testing him for Covid every 10 seconds. I'd much rather him have the virus than have to face that team. Goodness gracious. Neal's Pick: Georgia 51, Samford 7
Chase Parham: Speaking of preseason games.. Parham's Pick: Georgia 55, Samford 6
Jeffrey Wright: My big takeaway from Week 1 was that Georgia is a bigger title contender than Ohio State, and I did not expect to feel that way. WRIGHT’S PICK: Georgia 52, Samford 0
Brian Rippee: Thoughts and prayers to Samford here. But at least Bo Nix isn't their quarterback. They can hang their hat on that (and likely score more points than Oregon did). Rippee's Pick: Georgia 49, Samford 7
Iowa State +3.5 at Iowa, 3 p.m., BTN
Neal McCready: Look, I know we were awful. I know our best play was a punt. But we've won six in a row in this series. Iowa State's our bitch. Simple as that. We're going to keep scoring on defense, punt on third down and somehow, some way, make a play on offense. In a high-scoring game... Neal's Pick: Iowa 10, Iowa State 6
Chase Parham: What are we doing? It's week two. I know we do horse racing and midget wrestling when Neal gets behind, but this slog before we get to October? Iowa will find a way to win ugly. It's what the Hawkeyes do. Parham's Pick: Iowa 17, Iowa State 13
Jeffrey Wright: Matt Campbell is 0-5 overall and just 1-3-1 ATS against Iowa. In games at Iowa City, the Cyclones have score six total points (three points each year). I think this is a buy-low point on Iowa too. WRIGHT’S PICK: Iowa 17, Iowa State 3
Brian Rippee: I am not sure how anyone can rationally take the Hawkeyes after last week's disgraceful display. But the boys in the desert often get rich off of us squares thinking common sense is a guiding light. When submitting these picks, I read Neal's snarky intro about how my picks last week 'were worse than Iowa's offense.' Now, I am triggered, and if my picks suck again, it's because I am traumatized by such a hateful attack -- not because of doing dumb stuff like this. Rippee's Pick: Iowa 14, Iowa State 10.
Central Arkansas (No Line) at Ole Miss, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Neal McCready: I have so much respect for Lane Kiffin not doing Coachspeak 101 on these things. They're preseason tune-ups. He knows it. He says as much. If Ole Miss wants to score 70, it will. Instead, I think the Rebels will experiment. Still... Neal's Pick: Ole Miss 54, Central Arkansas 7
Chase Parham: The eyes will bee on the quarterback battle because there's no use in putting them anywhere else. Ole Miss will dominate and try some things. This is the epitome of a tuneup. Maybe Tech provides some resistance next week, but this won't have that. Parham's Pick: Ole Miss 48, Central Arkansas 10
Jeffrey Wright: At least there isn’t a line for this preseason game, so maybe the reaction will be tamer on Saturday night. For the record, I lost money too. WRIGHT’S PICK: Ole Miss 45, Central Arkansas 6
Brian Rippee: Luke Altmyer will get his chance to make his case to be this team's starting quarterback. Most will scoff at the notion that you can determine anything significant from playing an opponent like this, but there is clearly a reason this is being handled the way it is. Rippee's Pick: Ole Miss 42, Central Arkansas 7
Kentucky +5 at Florida, 6 p.m., ESPN
Neal McCready: This should be a great one. Here's my concern for Kentucky: That offensive line can't protect Will Levis. They're trying to protect the pocket and let Levis, who is really talented, do his thing. They need to move the pocket, but I wonder if that adjustment can be made in a week. Meanwhile, the Anthony Richardson Show might have an encore of sorts against the Wildcats. I think this might be a classic. Neal's Pick: Florida 30, Kentucky 24
Chase Parham: I formally apologized to Anthony Richardson on Twitter Saturday night. The Florida quarterback was dynamic in the win Utah that vaulted the Gators into the national conversation. I think some of the hype is too strong and Richardson will lay an egg or two, but this doesn't seem like the day for it. Parham's Pick: Florida 27, Kentucky 20
Jeffrey Wright: This is nothing more than a gut play. It makes the most sense for Florida to be one of the stories of the week only to lose this week. Florida is 0-4-1 ATS in last five games against Kentucky. WRIGHT’S PICK: Florida 31, Kentucky 27
Brian Rippee: I am very much looking forward to this one. Is Kentucky, Will Levis and this revamped offense real? Can Anthony Richardson back up his performance in week one? Kentucky has weirdly had a little success in the Swamp lately. If I am going to be bad, I may as well be bold. Rippee's Pick: Kentucky 27, Florida 24
San Jose State +23 at Auburn, 6:30 p.m., ESPNU
Neal McCready: This will most certainly be misinterpreted but I think Auburn is a little bit better than some believe. Now, the Tigers might still lose a bunch of games in the league, but I actually like this line. Neal's Pick: Auburn 38, San Jose State 13
Chase Parham: The losses for Auburn are coming, but this won't be one of them. The Tigers are too physical and the run game is too good. San Jose State is in store for a rough night. Parham's Pick: Auburn 42, San Jose State 17
Jeffrey Wright: The Mountain West is 0-6 ATS against power 5 opponents this year. They’ve failed to cover the spread by an average of 21+ points. My working theory is that the separation between the power 5 and group of 5 is now taking shape. WRIGHT’S PICK: Auburn 42, San Jose State 10
Brian Rippee: This Robby Ashford subplot is kind of fun, at least until the dysfunctional Auburn booster mafia inevitably drains the life out of this season. Rippee's Pick: Auburn 45, San Jose State 7
Southern (No Line) at LSU, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: Everyone will be on time for Monday's press conference. Neal's Pick: LSU 42, Southern 10
Chase Parham: LSU is one of the must-watch programs for 2022. That's not necessarily a good thing. Bless their hearts. Parham's Pick: LSU 38, Southern 9
Jeffrey Wright: The good news for LSU is that Southern will probably not punt a lot, so they won’t have to worry about muffing them. WRIGHT’S PICK: LSU 45, Southern 6
Brian Rippee: I would like an apology from Brian Kelly, Scott Woodward, Our Lady of The Lake, or someone -- anyone -- involved with LSU's football program for what I had to watch last Sunday night. Rippee's Pick: LSU 45, Southern 3.
Baylor +3 at BYU, 9:15 p.m., ESPN
Neal McCready: I think Baylor is better. It's that simple. The Bears can match BYU's play, Dave Aranda will have a great defensive play (always does), and Baylor's overall depth will win out. This is a late-night treat if you're looking for something to watch along with Chase's MPW Digital Postgame Show. Neal's Pick: Baylor 27, BYU 23
Chase Parham: I'll be talking to you fine people while this game is being played. We're going to cheer for BYU so may as well pick them here, too. Parham's Pick: BYU 31, Baylor 27
Jeffrey Wright: I know this is a trap, but I don’t know which way. Per ESPN, Baylor is 7-1 ATS against AP-ranked teams since 2020. BYU has failed to cover its last 6 home games against top-10 opponents. Baylor is 5-0 ATS in last 5 non-conference games.
BYU is 7-1 ATS against Big 12 opponents; Last year's 38-24 loss to Baylor was the first time the Cougars failed to cover. If that doesn’t scream trap, I don’t know what does. I think Blake Shapen is good, so I’ll take him. WRIGHT’S PICK: Baylor 28, BYU 27
Brian Rippee: The Bears are better than the Cougars. I am not going to put a whole lot more thought into it than that. Rippee's Pick: Baylor 24, BYU 20
Mississippi State -8 at Arizona, 6:30 p.m., FS1
Neal McCready: I love this line. It's free money, at least in my opinion. Neal's Pick: Mississippi State 38, Arizona 17
Chase Parham: The late start and travel are the only reasons that give me any pause. I like State to score a lot. Arizona is improved, but that doesn't mean the Wildcats don't suck. Parham's Pick: State 45, Arizona 27
Jeffrey Wright: I still don’t think 8 points is enough. WRIGHT’S PICK: Mississippi State 35, Arizona 21
Brian Rippee: Both of these teams looked better than I figured in their season debuts. I think Mississippi State is a better football team and should win by two scores or more, but weird stuff happens in the PAC 12 after the sun goes down, or so I am told. The hundreds of people in attendance might witness a real treat. Rippee's Pick: Mississippi State 34, Arizona 30