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Published Sep 15, 2022
Neal's Picks, presented by Service Specialists: Week 3
Neal McCready  •  RebelGrove
Publisher

NEAL'S PICKS PALATIAL HEADQUARTERS -- I'd love to blame the interns, but it's my fault.

Here's the best example: For the better part of two years, I've been all aboard the Kentucky train. People made fun, called me names. I didn't care. I said the Wildcats were good, getting better, going to win, etc.

Last year, they proved me right quite a few times, ultimately beating my Iowa Hawkeyes in the Citrus Bowl (or whatever they call it now).

This year, they looked a little lackluster versus Miami (Ohio) to start the season, and entering last week's game at Florida, everyone was all on the Gators. I let the noise creep in. I bailed on UK and took Florida and laid the points. You know the rest.

So I told the interns to drink up this week. They lounged around the pool, sipping vodkas and such and I just decided to not think and make my picks on gut instinct. As the great Crash Davis said, "Don't think. It can only hurt the ballclub."

Truer words...

On to the picks...

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Standings

Last week:

Neal McCready: 10-4 overall, 5-6 ATS

Chase Parham: 11-3 overall, 5-6 ATS

Jeffrey Wright: 9-5 overall, 5-6 ATS

Brian Rippee: 10-4 overall, 3-8 ATS

For the season:

Neal McCready: 22-6 overall, 9-13 ATS

Chase Parham: 23-5 overall, 11-11 ATS

Jeffrey Wright: 22-6 overall, 11-11 ATS

Brian Rippee: 23-5 overall, 5-17 ATS

All games Saturday

All times listed Central Daylight Time

All betting odds via DraftKings

All rankings listed via Associated Press

No. 1 Georgia -24.5 at South Carolina, 11 a.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: I'm just not going to overthink stuff this week. Or at least that's the goal as we get rolling. I have a ton of respect for what Shane Beamer is doing at South Carolina, but Georgia is a beast right now. Neal's Pick: Georgia 37, South Carolina 10

Chase Parham: I can work my mind into a pretzel here if I want to do that. I can let visions of Spencer Rattler dance in my head. Georgia is a python, though. The Bulldogs just choke out the opponent. South Carolina is cute this season, but so are bunnies. Parham's Pick: Georgia 41, Carolina 13

Jeffrey Wright: Since 2017, Georgia has is 10-2 ATS on the road against SEC East teams. Also, they are 5-0 ATS when favored by 20 points or more. WRIGHT’S PICK: Georgia 38, South Carolina 10

Brian Rippee: I don't know. If I can't win laying Georgia, then I may truly be hopeless (I likely am). Rippee's Pick: Georgia 41, South Carolina 10.


Youngstown State (No Line) at No. 9 Kentucky, 11 a.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: Boy, Oct. 1 looms big, doesn't it? Neal's Pick: Kentucky 41, Youngstown State 10

Chase Parham: Kentucky is fortunate it got week two Anthony Richardson instead of week one Anthony Richardson. He lost that game for the Gators. Parham's Pick: Kentucky 34, Youngstown State 7

Jeffrey Wright: Sure. WRIGHT'S PICK: Kentucky 49, Youngstown State 7

Brian Rippee: Kentucky might lose if John Calipari was coaching, but fortunately that is not the case for this football school. Rippee's Pick: Kentucky 40, Youngstown State 7

Abilene Christian (No Line) at Missouri, 11 a.m., ESPN+

Neal McCready: I think I know what I saw last week. This week won't do anything to change my mind. Neal's Pick: Missouri 42, Abilene Christian 7

Chase Parham: There's an alternate reality where that dude is the Ole Miss head coach. Woof. Parham's Pick: Missouri 37, Abilene Christian 13

Jeffrey Wright: Yuck. WRIGHT'S PICK: Missouri 45, Abilene Christian 6

Brian Rippee: Eliah Drinkwitz. Nerd. Rippee's Pick: Missouri 35, Abilene Christian 13

No. 12 BYU +3.5 at No. 25 Oregon, 2:30 p.m., FOX

Neal McCready: The Baylor-BYU game was a classic. Baylor is very good, so in other words, I think the Cougars are for real. Oregon isn't as bad as it looked against Georgia, so this has a chance to be very entertaining. A BYU win positions the Cougars as a threat to make the CFP. Keep that in mind. Neal's Pick: BYU 27, Oregon 21

Chase Parham: This is a ridiculous back to back for BYU. The Cougars knocked off Baylor without their top two wide receivers, and I'll keep riding the Provo Posse until I fall off. Oregon is not elite, and this one is gettable -- even on the road. Parham's Pick: BYU 20, Oregon 16

Jeffrey Wright: Since 2016, BYU is 10-4 ATS as a road underdog. Oregon has failed to cover the number in its last four games against ranked opponents. Also, Oregon is 10-19-1 ATS since 2014 in the month of September. Also, I think this number is inflated to the Ducks because they had so many explosive plays last week against Eastern Washington. WRIGHT’S PICK: BYU 28, OREGON 24

Brian Rippee: Everything about this tells me to take BYU, so I will instead go with the Ducks and Bo Nix in a game that will likely get weird. Rippee's Pick: Oregon 30 BYU 21

No. 20 Ole Miss -14.5 at Georgia Tech, 2:30 p.m., ABC

Neal McCready: What do we really, truly know about Ole Miss? I know what we think, but what do we know? I'm interested to see this team tested a bit, and Georgia Tech is our first, best shot at it. Kentucky looms. You can feel it. Neal's Pick: Ole Miss 34, Georgia Tech 17

Chase Parham: I think Ole Miss controls this game throughout, but I don't know what to make of the spread. The Rebels haven't schemed an opponent fully yet, worrying more about themselves than Troy or UCA. That won't be the case this week so maybe it's an Ole Miss that lights things up. On the other hand, a little sluggishness wouldn't surprise me. I'm more curious about the first real game for the new group of defenders for Ole Miss. The matchup seems to favor the Rebel defense. Parham's Pick: Ole Miss 30, Georgia Tech 17

Jeffrey Wright: Congrats, Rebel fans, Saturday will be the first game that will have an actual game plan. Georgia Tech has shown an ability to give up the big play, and Kiffin is quite good at scheming up the big play. WRIGHT’S PICK: Ole Miss 31, Georgia Tech 17

Brian Rippee: I don't feel like I know anything about Ole Miss yet. The Georgia Tech rushing attack will be a bit of a test for a linebacking corps that is still relatively unproven, and the offense will have to operate in a road game environment for the first time. What I do know is that the Yellow Jackets are not good and Geoff Collins' time in Atlanta is likely coming to an end Rippee's Pick: Ole Miss 28, Georgia Tech 10.

No. 22 Penn State -3 at Auburn, 2:30 p.m., CBS

Neal McCready: I don't know. I've said for weeks I think Auburn wins this game, but the Tigers' quarterback situation is a freaking mess. One can't run. One can't throw. The defense is good, but it's not as good as it likely needs to be. Neal's Pick: Penn State 20, Auburn 16

Chase Parham: Give me the points, but my God Auburn looked bad last week. I think it's two mediocre football teams. When that's the case, the home dog seems like the best of two bad options. Parham's Pick: Auburn 24, Penn State 21

Jeffrey Wright: Let’s get weird. Penn State is 1-4 ATS since 2020 when the spread is between three points either way. Also, Auburn at home in a big game always makes no sense. WRIGHT’S PICK: Penn State 21, Auburn 20

Brian Rippee: I don't think Auburn is any good because of its perplexing situation at quarterback, but they are pretty stout defensively and I don't love laying points with Sean Clifford on the road. Rippee's Pick: Auburn 17, Penn State 13.

Vanderbilt +1.5 at Northern Illinois, 2:30 p.m., CBSSN

Neal McCready: I'm giving my guy Clark one more shot here. I like what I've seen from the Commodores so far, relatively speaking. Neal's Pick: Vanderbilt 30, Northern Illinois 27

Chase Parham: I know it's Vanderbilt, but what is an SEC team doing with a road game at Northern Illinois? I know, I know... Arkansas State and Wyoming and all that, but still. My boy Ray Davis is going to wreck stuff. Parham's Pick: Vandy 27, Northern Illinois 24

Jeffrey Wright: Gross. WRIGHT’S PICK: Northern Illinois 28, Vanderbilt 24

Brian Rippee: Clark Lea seems like a nice man. He also seems to have better football players than he did a year ago, though I am not sure how much that will ultimately mean. Rippee's Pick: Vanderbilt 31, Northern Illinois 21.

ULM +50 at No. 2 Alabama, 3 p.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: I'll always have that glorious afternoon in November 2007. IYKYK. Neal's Pick: Alabama 51, ULM 0

Chase Parham: Utah State is bad. ULM is bad, too. I saw week one. Week three will be similar, but it's just so many damn points. I have a rule about laying more than 50. Maybe it's dumb, but a man has principles. Parham's Pick: Alabama 52, ULM 3

Jeffrey Wright: Do I think Alabama can score 51? Yes. WRIGHT’S PICK: Alabama 55, Louisiana-Monroe 3

Brian Rippee: My girlfriend went to grad school at ULM. We accidentally stumbled into a college bar in Monroe once. I witnessed a gentleman wearing a camo-shouldered Warhawk football jersey stick an entire can of skoal longcut in his lip in what appeared to be a dare. That's the type of fearlessness needed to cover spreads in Tuscaloosa. I hope Camo Jersey Guy is in attendance spitting gleefully into his talon-shaped mud jug. A hero among us. Rippee's Pick: Alabama 51, ULM 3


Mississippi State -2.5 at LSU, 5 p.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: I think this line is a trap to lure people to pick LSU. I think I'm falling for it. Mississippi State is good, maybe better than LSU, but you're giving me the Tigers and points at home. Maybe this is the Louisiana boy in me coming out, but... Neal's Pick: LSU 27, Mississippi State 24

Chase Parham: LSU has to prove it. Brian Kelly is going to win at a decently high level eventually, but I don't think that's Saturday. State's history in Baton Rouge bothers me here, but there's no actual tangible effect with that on Saturday. Parham's Pick: MSU 30, LSU 27

Jeffrey Wright: I don’t know. I think Mississippi State is pretty good. WRIGHT’S PICK: Mississippi State 28, LSU 20

Brian Rippee: Mississippi State's offense looks really sharp. Will Rogers' timing in his third year in Mike Leach's system is mesmerizing, but LSU as a home dog feels very weird. I have little confidence in this pick, but I guess that means it is more likely to hit than if I go with my gut Rippee's Pick: LSU 27, Mississippi State 23.

Missouri State (No line) at No. 10 Arkansas, 6 p.m., ESPN+

Neal McCready: I won't be shocked if this is weirdly close. Arkansas has played two physical, emotional games and a date at Jerry World versus Texas A&M looms in a week. Former coach Bobby Petrino returns to Fayetteville, but that's not going to motivate the current Hogs. Neal's Pick: Arkansas 38, Missouri State 23

Chase Parham: Get your breather, Arkansas. The Aggies are up next. Parham's Pick: Arkansas 34, Missouri State 10

Jeffrey Wright: Arkansas has big games coming. WRIGHT'S PICK: Arkansas 35, Missouri State 13

Brian Rippee: It is bike week in Fayetteville. Rippee's Pick: Arkansas 31, Missouri State 7.

Akron +46.5 at No. 15 Tennessee, 6 p.m., ESPN+

Neal McCready: It's such a big number. They played Pitt last week and have the Gators next week. I kind of think Heupel is going to want to get the scout team guys some work in the fourth quarter. But screw it. Akron is awful and I'm laying the damn points. I'm tired of losing these games by playing mental gymnastics. Neal's Pick: Tennessee 55, Akron 6

Chase Parham: My principles allow me to take Tennessee here, but I think Akron can score a couple times. Tennessee may be bored by the fourth quarter and not care. Parham's Pick: Tennessee 49, Akron 10

Jeffrey Wright: Does Tennessee want to cover this number? They’ve got Florida next week, so I have to imagine they’re more concerned about that. WRIGHT’S PICK: Tennessee 45, Akron 7

Brian Rippee: Tennessee is coming off of a physical road win and has Florida in a week. I know nothing about Akron, but this is a ton of points in a weird spot. Rippee's Pick: Tennessee 49, Akron 7

South Florida +24.5 at No. 18 Florida, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network

Neal McCready: I love this line. Love it. Neal's Pick: Florida 45, South Florida 10

Chase Parham: South Florida is awful. I completely disregarded Charlie Weis' tenure there. You can only do so much with a dumpster fire. Parham's Pick: Florida 38, South Florida 13

Jeffrey Wright: I think the play with Florida is take them if they’re playing a bad team. USF most certainly qualifies as a bad team. WRIGHT’S PICK: Florida 48, USF 10

Brian Rippee: It feels like Vegas gets many squares like me on lines like this due to many people thinking of the what South Florida program was even just five years ago compared to now. It is a mess. Rippee's Pick: Florida 42, South Florida 10.

No. 13 Miami +5.5 at No. 24 Texas A&M, 8 p.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: It's just too good to be true. I want Miami to win so badly that it has no chance. I can't have really nice things. Neal's Pick: Texas A&M 23, Miami 17

Chase Parham: Texas A&M can lose five games in a row. It won't though. It'll lose some, and the Aggies have severe issues. We're also potentially overreacting by writing the obituary and calling for 6-6. I'm taking Miami to avoid being really pissed off if TAMU wins by five or fewer. Parham's Pick: Texas A&M 24, Miami 21

Jeffrey Wright: Texas A&M beat Alabama at home after losing to Mississippi State last year. That fact makes me want to take them here because I still think their defense plays. However, it’s also true that they lost to Mississippi State a week after they lost to Arkansas. Let’s get weird. WRIGHT’S PICK: Texas A&M 24, Miami 17

Brian Rippee: I will believe it when I see it with Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes. Texas A&M isn't great but will bounce back here. Rippee's Pick Texas A&M 27, Miami 10.

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