NEAL'S PICKS PALATIAL HEADQUARTERS -- Sometimes you just have to look in the mirror and admit you're not working hard enough.
You can blame the damn interns, think it'll be better because you banish the interns to the pool, whatever.
But sometimes, there comes a moment when you just have to either accept being a loser or fight.
I have arrived at that moment. Let's review. Last week, I rolled with Iowa out of my lifelong love of everything about the state, that institution, Coach Ferentz and the young men who are dedicated Hawkeyes.
I knew we were on borrowed time. I knew our offense was betraying us. I knew we had a Penn State injury help us beat the Nittany Lions a week earlier. But what did I do? I bet with my heart. There's no emotion in gambling. It's cold, cunning, conniving.
Then, I bet on Florida. I knew better. I bet on the Gators' uniform, failing to take stock of the reality that their defense sucks. I bet on South Carolina to cover a double-digit line. I know it was against Vanderbilt, but good God, Neal, stop your irrational love affair with South Carolina. It is never going to love you back.
I bet on Arkansas, failing to take into consideration the indisputable fact that the league office protects Auburn in games like the one in Fayetteville last Saturday.
Then damn Mark Stoops calls timeout to score a meaningless touchdown and spoil a game.
All in all, it was an inexcusable effort.
So I studied. I ignored the interns' obvious screams for attention. I buckled down, studied trends, pored over film and made some respectable picks. I owe you all that. More importantly, I owe myself that. I owe this game that.
I apologize for last week. I'll be better.
On to the picks...
Standings
Last Week:
Neal McCready: 4-5 overall, 3-6 ATS
Chase Parham: 6-3 overall, 5-4 ATS
Jeffrey Wright: 5-4 overall, 6-3 ATS
Zach Berry: 4-5 overall, 5-4 ATS
For The Season:
Neal McCready: 61-21 overall, 37-35 ATS
Chase Parham: 61-21 overall, 34-38 ATS
Jeffrey Wright: 59-23 overall, 40-32 ATS
Zach Berry: 59-23 overall, 32-40 ATS
All games Saturday
All games Central Daylight Time
All listed rankings via Associated Press
Arkansas-Pine Bluff +51.5 vs. Arkansas, War Memorial Stadium, Little Rock, 11 a.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: The Golden Lions are 1-5, coming off a 34-7 loss to Southern. Arkansas has an open date ahead and, despite feeling a little salty about what could have been, I suspect Sam Pittman will do the wise thing and steer the Hogs into a breather before a November slate that includes very winnable games against Mississippi State, LSU and Missouri. Neal's Pick: Arkansas 47, UAPB 7
Chase Parham: Arkansas has had a rough few weeks in different ways and this will be a reprieve and an ability to add a win to the docket, though there has to be some feeling of what might have been. Parham's Pick: Arkansas 48, Pine Bluff 6
Jeffrey Wright: The question is does Arkansas want to cover this number. Given the gauntlet of games that Arkansas has played and an upcoming open week, my guess is no. WRIGHT’S PICK: ARKANSAS 49, ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF 14
Zach Berry: Tough day at the office for the Lions. Zach's Pick: Arkansas 49, UAPB 6
Wisconsin -3 at No. 25 Purdue, 2 p.m., Big Ten Network
Neal McCready: Purdue can't fire last week and destroyed our title hopes, ruining our holiday season and generally making life miserable. The pain has been overwhelming, buoyed only by the outcome of a game later that day in Monroe, La. I don't know if you've heard, but ULM defeated Liberty in intercollegiate football on Saturday night. The Warhawks, coached by Terry Bowden, scored three more points than the Flames, coached by Hugh Freeze. Thus, due to having more points, ULM was declared the winner and Liberty, due to having fewer points, was declared the loser. Liberty was a 31.5-point favorite. Liberty lost. Purdue is due a letdown, and the Boilermakers are 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Neal's Pick: Wisconsin 24, Purdue 20
Chase Parham: Purdue isn't exactly what I would call good, despite last week, and Wisconsin can at least play some defense at times. This is more out of principle than any real thought, but let's go with it. Parham's Pick: Wisconsin 21, Purdue 17
Jeffrey Wright: This game reeks of a big-time hangover spot. However, Wisconsin cannot score, even against Army. WRIGHT’S PICK: WISCONSIN 21, PURDUE 19
Zach Berry: Big letdown spot here, I cannot be convinced otherwise. Zach's Pick: Wisconsin 22, Purdue 17
No. 8 Oklahoma State +7 at Iowa State, 2:30 p.m., FOX
Neal McCready: Something has to give. Oklahoma State is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games. However, Iowa State is 7-1 straight up in its last eight home games. This just feels like one of those days when the Cowboys finally take the L everyone has been predicting for them. If they win, Bedlam has a chance to be wild. One of these days, I'm going to go to Bedlam. It's on my very short list of things I really want to do that involve college football. 1. Go to an Iowa game. 2. Bedlam. Neal's Pick: Iowa State 30, Oklahoma State 24
Chase Parham: Oklahoma State is one of the more underrated top-10 teams in recent memory, as the Cowboys are underdogs to lower-ranked or unranked teams two straight weeks. I like Iowa State to stop the run, but the point spread is giving me pause. Parham's Pick: Iowa State 34, Oklahoma State 31
Jeffrey Wright: Oklahoma State has been undervalued all year while Iowa State has been overvalued. Oklahoma State may lose, but these two teams are even. WRIGHT’S PICK: IOWA STATE 27, OKLAHOMA STATE 24
Zach Berry: And another letdown spot. Zach's Pick: Iowa State 34, Oklahoma State 23
No. 10 Oregon -3 at UCLA, 2:30 p.m., ABC
Neal McCready: Oregon is 1-5 against the spread this season. UCLA is 5-2 against the spread this season.The favorite is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings of the Ducks and Bruins. Both teams can really run the football, but I'll take the points and the team that has been steadier of late. Neal's Pick: UCLA 31, Oregon 28
Chase Parham: Pac 12 games during the day bother me. I don't know why, but they should all start at like 10 p.m. It's just the rule. And Go Ducks. Parham's Pick: Oregon 38, UCLA 34
Jeffrey Wright: This line has already moved five points to UCLA. Also, weirdly PAC-12 home are just 11-25 ATS in all games this year, and they’re 6-10 ATS at home in conference games. I think the Ducks can and will win this game. WRIGHT’S PICK: OREOGON 27, UCLA 21
Zach Berry: Whoever has the ball last. Give me the home team I guess. Zach's Pick: UCLA 34, Oregon 30
LSU +10.5 at No. 12 Ole Miss, 2:30 p.m., CBS
Neal McCready: LSU is 4-0-1 against the spread in its last five games against Ole Miss. I think Ole Miss wins, in large part because I believe Matt Corral will play and play well. But let's be honest with ourselves here. Ole Miss has been playing with a lot of fire the last two weeks. Arkansas and Tennessee had shots at wins on the final play of those two games, Corral is running way too much and the Rebels are beat to hell and back physically. The line is just too damn big. Neal's Pick: Ole Miss 40, LSU 37
Chase Parham: Going into the season there were a few things that had to happen for the special season to occur. With depth an obvious issue, the Rebels had to stay pretty healthy and overcome a thin roster in myriad places. It's bordering just too many injuries at offensive line and wide receiver, and Matt Corral gives some extra security but winning and winning comfortably are two different things. The march continues but so does the drama. Parham's Pick: Ole Miss 44, LSU 38
Jeffrey Wright: I’m convinced that you either take Ole Miss in a blowout or take LSU to win. I think LSU is more of what they’ve shown the entire year as opposed to what they showed last week. WRIGHT’S PICK: OLE MISS 42, LSU 24
Zach Berry: Ed Orgeron will get the Tigers up for this one, but I don't think it really matters. Matt Corral continues his march to NYC and the defense continues to show improvement. Zach's Pick: Ole Miss 45, LSU 31
Clemson +3.5 at No. 23 Pittsburgh, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Neal McCready: Clemson is 0-7 against the spread in its last seven games. Pitt is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. Pitt has one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 48.3 points per game. Clemson, meanwhile, is averaging just 180.3 passing yards per game. The Tigers like to run, and Pitt takes that away, giving up just 100.2 rushing yards per game. If I had a lock, it'd be this one. Neal's Pick: Pitt 31, Clemson 21
Chase Parham: The strangest-sounding thing but it's true: Clemson can't keep up with Pitt offensively. Parham's Pick: Pitt 34, Clemson 24
Jeffrey Wright: Clemson’s offense stinks. They can’t score against Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Boston College, anyone. They’re defense is good, but the Panthers have the better quarterback. WRIGHT’S PICK: PITT 24, CLEMSON 17
Zach Berry: bRiNg uR oWn gUts Zach's Pick: Pitt 33, Clemson 30
Mississippi State -23 at Vanderbilt, 3 p.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: Mississippi State is 2-4 against the spread in its last six games. Vanderbilt is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games. Vanderbilt is last in the SEC in pass defense, giving up more than 300 yards per game over the last four outings. The Dump Off Raid will chew up clock and yards. The 'Dores have produced turnovers on defense, however, and I think that lets them cover Saturday. Neal's Pick: Mississippi State 30, Vanderbilt 9
Chase Parham: I've had a feeling all week that MSU is going to play sloppily and make this a dumb game. The Bulldogs will undoubtedly win, I mean it's Vanderbilt, but the Commodores have caused MSU to get down in the slop recently, including a 24-17 game last season. Parham's Pick: MSU 27, Vanderbilt 10
Jeffrey Wright: Mississippi State isn’t a bad team, but Vanderbilt is. Also, Mississippi State isn’t South Carolina. WRIGHT’S PICK: MISSISSIPPI STATE 38, VANDERBILT 13
Zach Berry: Seek help if you watch this. Zach's Pick: Mississippi State 37, Vanderbilt 10
Tennessee +27.5 at No. 4 Alabama, 6 p.m., ESPN
Neal McCready: Tennessee is 5-10 against the spread in its last 15 games. Alabama is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games against SEC opponents. I'm concerned the Vols, hungover after last week, will have to turn to Joe Milton, and that won't go well. Alabama is still fuming from a loss, and the Tide takes this game seriously. It's a lot of points, I know, but I'm not betting against Alabama right now. Neal's Pick: Alabama 45, Tennessee 17
Chase Parham: I hate this point total. I think Alabama wins and wins comfortably but my stars at a four-touchdown line. Josh Heupel is calling Hendon Hooker day to day, and the prospect of playing Joe Milton scares me. Parham's Pick: Alabama 45, Tennessee 16
Jeffrey Wright: Joe Milton is likely playing for Tennessee, so that means I will be taking whomever he is playing. WRIGHT’S PICK: ALABAMA 45, TENNESSEE 14
Zach Berry: That 1998 feeling is wearing off. Zach's Pick: Alabama 51, Tennessee 20
South Carolina +21 at No. 17 Texas A&M, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: Texas A&M is 7-0 all-time against South Carolina. South Carolina is 4-9 against the spread in its last 13 games. Texas A&M is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. This one isn't complicated. Jimbo Fisher's team is looking strong of late. South Carolina is running on fumes. Neal's Pick: Texas A&M 41, South Carolina 13
Chase Parham: That last week said more about South Carolina than it did Vanderbilt. Parham's Pick: TAMU 40, Carolina 17
Jeffrey Wright: Zeb Noland can beat Vanderbilt. He cannot beat Texas A&M. WRIGHT’S PICK: TEXAS A&M 38, SOUTH CAROLINA 14
Zach Berry: Luke Doty is done for the year so it's ZEB NOLAND TIME! It won't matter though. Zach's Pick: Texas A&M 35, South Carolina 19