Neal's Picks, presented by Service Specialists: Week 8
NEAL'S PICKS PALATIAL HEADQUARTERS -- One half of a point.
I keep hearing about how Lane Kiffin is a genius, an elite play-caller, etc. Yet, needing just one-half of a point, he takes two knees and leaves an L on the field.
Maybe Juice was making the calls. Maybe Knox got hold of the headset. All we know is we needed one measly point and Kiffin let us down.
The pain will subside one day. Just not today.
Anyway, we at Neal's Picks have learned to simply depend on ourselves. We can't expect outsiders to think of us, to care for us, to love us. No matter what we do, we're on our own, floating in the ocean on a broken raft, beating away sharks and fighting for survival. We might as well adopt a volleyball.
Kiffin could have kicked a field goal and covered. He could have broken another long run and covered. He could have faked a kneel-down and then hit Jonathan Mingo for a touchdown. The options were limitless.
He chose to take a long knife and stick it into our backs here at Neal's Picks.
Maybe there's a reason he named his dog what he did.
Just saying.
On to the picks...
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Standings
Last Week:
Neal McCready: 6-4 overall, 7-3 ATS
Chase Parham: 6-4 overall, 7-3 ATS
Jeffrey Wright: 7-3 overall, 7-3 ATS
Brian Rippee: 9-1 overall, 5-5 ATS
For The Season:
Neal McCready: 68-14 overall, 40-30 ATS
Chase Parham: 67-15 overall, 39-31 ATS
Jeffrey Wright: 66-16 overall, 35-35 ATS
Brian Rippee: 68-14 overall, 24-46 ATS
All games Saturday
All times listed Central Daylight Time
All betting lines listed via DraftKings (as of Monday)
All rankings listed via Associated Press
No. 14 Syracuse +14 at No. 5 Clemson, 11 a.m., ABC
Neal McCready: See ya later, glass slipper. Neal's Pick: Clemson 37, Syracuse 20
Chase Parham: Clemson hasn't done much to really impress me, despite being undefeated, but I believe in the Tigers far more than I do Syracuse. I know which way this undefeated matchup is headed. Parham's Pick: Clemson 34, Syracuse 17
Jeffrey Wright: I’ve had a decent spidey sense with Syracuse. They’re like the run-first, defense-first Wake Forest. They will not beat themselves and you are going to have to play well to beat them, but they’re not really going to go compete in the bigger weight class. WRIGHT’S PICK: CLEMSON 31, SYRACUSE 13
Brian Rippee: I took one look at Syracuse's strength of schedule and hammered Clemson. Rippee's Pick: Clemson 35, Syracuse 10
UT-Martin (No line) at No. 3 Tennessee, 11 a.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: Has the party ended yet? I can't blame the Vols if it hasn't. Neal's Pick: Tennessee 45, UT-Martin 7
Chase Parham: Knoxville will still be hungover, but whatever. As much as I want to be critical and make fun of the Vols, Tennessee deserves it. Catatonic or not, UT Martin won't be much resistance. Parham's Pick: Tennessee 41, UT Martin 16
Jeffrey Wright: This game might be some of the finest scheduling I’ve ever seen. This scheduling is the other end of the spectrum from Arkansas’s scheduling BYU last week. WRIGHT’S PICK: TENNESSEE 41, UT-MARTIN 10
Brian Rippee: I felt like I have been red hot the last two weeks, only to look up my record and see that I was .500 both weeks. I guess with as bad as I have been, that is red hot? Can I please count this as a win, Mr. McCready? Rippee's Pick: Tennessee 50, UT-Martin 13
No. 20 Texas -3.5 at No. 11 Oklahoma State, 2:30 p.m., ABC
Neal McCready: I normally roll with Oklahoma State, and while it's tempting to go with the 'Horns, I'm a loyalty guy. Neal's Pick: Oklahoma State 34, Texas 33
Chase Parham: Sometimes we pick games based on who we want to watch and cheer for. This is one of those times. Give me the points and the Cowboys. Parham's Pick: OSU 38, Texas 35
Jeffrey Wright: I hate doing this. The Pokes are 5-0 ATS as an underdog since last season and are 10-1-1 ATS in league play over that stretch. However, I cannot unsee what I did in Fort Worth. They blew that game well before overtime. Also, I kinda respect that Texas didn’t lose in Ames last week. WRIGHT’S PICK: Texas 38, Oklahoma State 31
Brian Rippee: Oklahoma State has a good football team. It suffered a gut-wrenching defeat last week. I think the Pokes rebound here. Rippee's Pick: Oklahoma State 35, Texas 30
No. 7 Ole Miss -1 at LSU, 2:30 p.m., CBS
Neal McCready: I anticipate one hell of a game. If you're the nervous type, I expect Saturday afternoon to be very difficult for you. In the end, I think Ole Miss' running game is the difference and the Rebels march on. Neal's Pick: Ole Miss 38, LSU 35
Chase Parham: Ole Miss hasn't won in Baton Rouge since 2008. The Rebels no-showed offensively the last time it was 7-0 facing LSU. There are plenty of historical trends that favor the Tigers, but Lane Kiffin has made most of those in other instances not matter. It's not always pretty, and Ole Miss is banged up, but here lately the Rebels just win. I'll say that continues, though I'm not confidence about this one. Parham's Pick: Ole Miss 30, LSU 27
Jeffrey Wright: The trends favor the Tigers here. LSU is 14-4-1 ATS against AP Top 10 teams since 2017. However, I weirdly like Ole Miss on the road under Kiffin better than at home. Kiffin is 5-4 ATS in SEC play while the Rebels are 4-7 ATS at home in league play. I also think Ole Miss is better. LSU gave them a pretty good punch last year, and once Ole Miss responded, they didn’t really have any answers. WRIGHT’S PICK: OLE MISS 31, LSU 27
Brian Rippee: Here's where we learn a great deal about how good this Ole Miss team is. Rare is it to see a top-10 team not face a real road test until the 4th Saturday in October, but that is exactly where the Rebels sit. This will test their mental fortitude more than anything. But the tackling and run defense must be better. I just don't think LSU is very good. Rippee's Pick: Ole Miss 27, LSU 23
No.9 UCLA +5.5 at No. 10 Oregon, 2:30 p.m., FOX or FS1
Neal McCready: Oregon is a different team at home. However, Chip Kelly has to want to win in Eugene something awful. If UCLA wins this one, it's time for a different conversation. Neal's Pick: Oregon 34, UCLA 30
Chase Parham: I spent several days in the offseason calling Chip Kelly washed up and past his prime. I'm nothing if not dedicated to proving my hot takes correct, so here's hoping. Parham's Pick: Oregon 27, UCLA 20
Jeffrey Wright: I’ll use the “PAC-12 will eat itself” principle in this one. Also, since 2017, PAC-12 favorites are 15-7 ATS when the spread is between 4.5 and 6.5. WRIGHT’S PICK: OREGON 38, UCLA 31
Brian Rippee: I didn't think UCLA was very good despite its record, then it beat Utah convincingly. Oregon is really good at home, but do I trust Bo Nix in a game like this? The answer is no. Rippee's Pick: UCLA 38, Oregon 33
Vanderbilt +15.5 at Missouri, 3 p.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: I want to pick Vanderbilt. I really do. But I've seen that defense in person. Neal's Pick: Missouri 30, Vanderbilt 17
Chase Parham: Missouri has been surprisingly good against the number the last two years, but I just think Vanderbilt plays this close. Missouri is going to win, but the Commodores can make it interesting. Missouri doesn't have the skill players to overwhelm. Parham's Pick: Missouri 34, Vandy 20
Jeffrey Wright: I did a little research that was inspired by my very well-received appearance on the RebelGrove postgame show. We were discussing if point spreads between 14.5 and 16.5 were sucker spots. Turns out, they are. Since 2017, when the point spread is between 14.5 and 16.5, underdogs are 9-5-1 ATS in SEC play. Now, here’s the troubling stat. The team that has been in this spot the most is Vanderbilt, and they are 1-3 ATS while no other team has more than one loss ATS. Nonetheless, here’s why you don’t let a roadblock stop you. I continued my research and found that while Vanderbilt is terrible in this spot, Missouri is worse. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in SEC play when they are a favorite of 14.5 to 16.5 points. WRIGHT’S PICK: MISSOURI 31, VANDERBILT 17
Brian Rippee: Oh, man. This is quite the line. I think Vanderbilt is better, but Mizzou has been in every game it has played the last month and has an argument that it should've beaten Georgia and Auburn. I guess I will take the points and cross my fingers. Rippee's Pick: Mizzou 28, Vandy 17
No. 24 Mississippi State +21.5 at No. 6 Alabama, 6 p.m., ESPN
Neal McCready: Lay 'em. Neal's Pick: Alabama 38, Mississippi State 7
Chase Parham: Mississippi State even knows this is a terrible spot for the Bulldogs. Alabama is focused and angry, and while it's not your normal Crimson Tide, it's plenty to spread havoc on Saturday night. Parham's Pick: Alabama 38, MSU 16
Jeffrey Wright: Alabama has covered four-consecutive games that have followed a loss. They’re also 16-11 ATS when favored by 21.5 points or more in SEC play since 2017. Further, they’re 12-3 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons, and the Bulldogs under Mike Leach are 0-2 SU and ATS against Alabama, failing to cover the number by two scores each outing. WRIGHT’S PICK: ALABAMA 38, MISSISSIPPI STATE 10
Brian Rippee: This is normally an automatic lay the points. Alabama coming off a loss? At home? Against a program it has utterly dominated since I was like 10 years old? I am just not positive the Tide are as tidy of a ship as we have become accustomed to. That defense has real issues and the offensive line is not exactly impressive. No dumber time than now to take State for the first time this year. Let's get reckless. Rippee's Pick: Alabama 34, Mississippi State 21
Texas A&M -4 at South Carolina, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: Siskey talked me into this the other day. The Aggies played well in Tuscaloosa and enjoyed an open date. A young team, playing with some confidence... I'll give them one final chance. Neal's Pick: Texas A&M 31, South Carolina 23
Chase Parham: I want South Carolina to win. I really want South Carolina to win. I just don't see it happening. Texas A&M is talented enough, and Caroline's best game outside of Kentucky without Will Levis is a two-touchdown loss to Arkansas. Parham's Pick: Texas A&M 24, Carolina 14
Jeffrey Wright: I think Texas A&M is better. Give me the Aggies. WRIGHT’S PICK: TEXAS A&M 24, SOUTH CAROLINA 17
Brian Rippee: I don't really see it at surface level from a South Carolina standpoint. Spencer Rattler against that Aggies defense? A lack of a pass rush to bother Haynes King and a bye week for A&M coming in? But with that said, the Aggies have been a wildly frustrating team to wager on and the Gamecocks play really hard for Shane Beamer. I think they give them a game and cover. Rippee's Pick: Texas A&M 23, South Carolina 20
No. 17 Kansas State +5.5 at No. 8 TCU, 7 p.m., FOX or FS1
Neal McCready: This feels like a weird spot for the Horned Frogs. I think they win, but that's a lot of points. Neal's Pick: TCU 34, Kansas State 30
Chase Parham: Kansas State is ranked? Who knew. I don't believe in TCU, so I'll take my points, please. Parham's Pick: Kansas State 37, TCU 33
Jeffrey Wright: I’ll stick with the sharps on this play. Most of the early money is on the Wildcats. WRIGHT’S PICK: TCU 28, KANSAS STATE 24
Brian Rippee: The Big 12 has sneakily produced a ton of good games this year and is pretty strong league from top to bottom. I am going to have a hard time going against TCU here, even though I very much enjoy watching Martinez and the Kansas State offense. Does anyone else feel like TCU has played 9 home games already? Rippee's Pick: TCU 35, Kansas State 30