NEAL'S PICKS PALATIAL ESTATE --Anarchy rules, boys and girls.
A week ago, my trusty security guards, Chip and Morgan, and their intern, Glenn, shut down the protests outside the gates of my palatial estate.
They scorned the little people, letting them know their thoughts and opinions don't matter. Chip took his bullhorn and flat-out told them, "You people don't matter. You just live here. You're never getting in our club."
Glenn thought that was so funny. He laughed and laughed and laughed.
Then, in the days following the people's failed coup, we rolled a 6-3 record against the spread. That was not coincidence.
We gained no ground, mind you, and we're still in last place, but we enjoyed some of our finest single malts and cigars while the little protestors chanted in the cold. Bless their pathetic little hearts.
Isabelle remains our "interim" lead intern while we conduct a "national" search for her permanent replacement. We're really going to search everywhere, talk to a lot of people. I've asked Glenn, once he gets through licking Chip and Morgan's shoes, to put together a profile of sorts. You know, we need to know what would make a great lead intern. Glenn said he had some wonderful ideas. He said he just needs some time and an expense account. He said something about waiting for another contract to expire or something, but I didn't really understand him. It was kind of mumbly. It seemed like he had something in his mouth.
Anyway, we've added some NFL to the picks this week. We're four games out of first, and it's almost Halloween. It's time to make a move. Or not. It's not like abject failure gets punished here.
On to the picks...
Standings
Last Week:
Neal McCready: 4-5 overall, 6-3 ATS
Chase Parham: 7-2 overall, 7-2 ATS
Jeffrey Wright: 6-3 overall, 7-2 ATS
Zach Berry: 6-3 overall, 6-3 ATS
For The Season:
Neal McCready: 51-14 overall, 28-27 ATS
Chase Parham: 51-14 overall, 29-26 ATS
Jeffrey Wright: 52-13 overall, 32-23 ATS
Zach Berry: 51-14 overall, 29-26 ATS
Saturday's games
No. 9 Florida (-6) at South Carolina, 11 a.m. CDT, ESPN
Neal McCready: This has letdown written all over it for both teams. Florida played very well at LSU and South Carolina achieved a cathartic victory in Athens. The Gators should benefit from an early kick, but Williams-Brice will be rocking. This could be a fun game to watch, but I worry about the Gamecocks' ability to turn the page. Neal's Pick: Florida 27, South Carolina 20
Chase Parham: Florida showed itself well in Baton Rouge, and Georgia's loss gives the Gators hope -- albeit likely foolish -- of winning the SEC East. South Carolina isn't playing for much other than pride, and it's an 11 a.m. game so the crowd won't be as lively. Florida should control this one. Parham's Pick: Florida 34, South Carolina 20
Jeffrey Wright: I’ve seen that South Carolina win before. They won a sleepy road game at noon, and I can’t wait to bet against them this week because Florida is good and South Carolina will be one dimensional.Wright’s pick: Florida 27, South Carolina 14
Zach Berry: What a huge win for Will Muschamp and the South Carolina program. Ya hate to see Georgia lose one like that, don’t you? With that said, I am not sure how they can come back down from that emotional high and compete against a really solid Florida team. But, with Boom’s defense and the Gators licking their wounds after a big-time game in Death Valley, I think the Gamecocks cover. Zach’s Pick: Florida 24, South Carolina 20
No. 11 Auburn (-19) at Arkansas, 11 a.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: Arkansas is getting closer, but one has to wonder if Chad Morris is running out of time. Auburn will be fresh, though the Tigers have to avoid looking ahead to LSU. I'm not sure the Hogs can do much against Auburn's defense. Neal's Pick: Auburn 44, Arkansas 17
Chase Parham: Auburn is just too good defensively. This line is a little large for my taste, but I'm not going with the Razorbacks, so it is what it is. Parham's Pick: Auburn 41, Arkansas 20
Jeffrey Wright: Gus Malzahn against Arkansas is an auto bet. He’s the guy that is still hung up on his high school girlfriend and relishes the chance to show off his new model girlfriend every chance he get whenever they’re in the same room. There’s always a scoreboard. Wright’s pick: Auburn 38, Arkansas 14
Zach Berry: Auburn will be angry. And Gus Malzahn will want to make a statement to get back in the Tiger Plainsmen War Eagle fans good graces. Especially back home In the Natural State. Zach’s Pick: Auburn 42, Arkansas 17
No. 2 LSU (-19.5) at Mississippi State, 2:30 p.m., CBS
Neal McCready: I know what I'm seeing. LSU is national-title good. Mississippi State has a disease. Something's wrong. One team is happy and confident. The other is miserable. I like LSU big. Neal's Pick: LSU 45, Mississippi State 13
Chase Parham: Mississippi State is listless and seems to be going through the motions while his head coach potentially is trying to get the Rutgers job. LSU may sleepwalk through this one, but the Tigers can still put up 45 in that process. Parham's Pick: LSU 48, MSU 17
Jeffrey Wright: LSU is in the circle of trust, and I’ve watched State’s secondary.Wright’s pick: LSU 45, Mississippi State 21
Zach Berry: Mississippi State has had success in recent years at home against top-five teams, but that was when the guy who is now coaching at Florida was there. Joe Burrow should have a big day and Dave Aranda’s defense will feast on whoever plays quarterback for the Bulldogs. Zach’s Pick: LSU 44, Mississippi State 14
No. 12 Oregon (-3) at No. 25 Washington, 2:30 p.m. CDT, ABC
Neal McCready: This should be a really fun game between two good quarterbacks, two good defenses and two of the better coaches in the country, at least in my opinion. Oregon is loaded with athletes, and I think they pull it off in Seattle. If you need a break from the SEC, this game should satisfy you. Neal's Pick: Oregon 27, Washington 23
Chase Parham: I like my Pac 12 late at night. This is unsettling with the Huskies and Ducks playing opposite the SEC Game of the Week that's a dud. Justin Herbert and Jacob Eason is fun, though. If we have to add games just for Neal to catch up, this is a decent one. Parham's Pick: Washington 27, Oregon 23
Jeffrey Wright: There’s nothing about this line that makes sense — 62 percent of the bets and 68 percent of the money is on Oregon, yet Vegas hasn’t blinked. I’ve been successful just trusting the team that I don’t trust in this situation. Here’s to hope.Wright’s pick: Oregon 21, Washington 20
Zach Berry: I really like what Mario Cristobal has built in Eugene and Jordan Herbert is impressive. The Ducks lost leading receiver Jacob Breeland for the season last week, but they’ll plug and play some dynamic athlete from Florida, no worries. The real test here is the Huskies' offense, ranked 17th in SP+, going up against the Ducks' defense, ranked No. 1 in SP+. Zach’s Pick: Oregon 31, Washington 21
Temple (+7.5) at No. 19 SMU, 2:30 p.m., ESPN2
Neal McCready: This is another game that should benefit from sets clicking off the blowout in Starkville. If this game were in Philly, I'd go the other way. However, SMU is quickly becoming quite the story nationally. Neal's Pick: SMU 31, Temple 27
Chase Parham: Oh, good grief. This is ridiculous. Parham's Pick: SMU 38, Temple 35
Jeffrey Wright: Neal’s making a huge mistake dipping his toe into the American. It’s like trying cocaine. You may not get hooked, but you’re better off just staying away because it’s not a good idea. Wright’s pick: SMU 31, Temple 28
Zach Berry: YOUR SMU MUSTANGS WILL REMAIN UNBEATEN (Temple will cover though, they ain’t bad)! Zach’s Pick: SMU 35, Temple 32
No. 22 Missouri (-21.5) at Vanderbilt, 3 p.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: Shhh. I'm listening. Give me just a second.
Nope. No pulse.
Neal's Pick: Missouri 45, Vanderbilt 10
Chase Parham: Missouri continues to distance itself from that Wyoming game. Vanderbilt will distance itself from the Mason era soon. Parham's Pick: Mizzou 41, Vanderbilt 10
Jeffrey Wright: Are we allowed to say that Vanderbilt has quit yet, or will the coaching community shun us for suggesting the obvious. Wright’s pick: Missouri 41, Vanderbilt 10
Zach Berry: Kelly Bryant will have a field day. The Commodores are comically bad. I hate it for Derek Mason. That job is a graveyard. Zach’s Pick: Missouri 45, Vanderbilt 17
Kentucky (+25) at No. 10 Georgia, 5 p.m. CDT, ESPN
Neal McCready: Kentucky is going to pay the price -- not of a linebacker, but for Georgia's hurt feelings. Linebackers are expensive. Neal's Pick: Georgia 49, Kentucky 13
Chase Parham: Georgia has a fatal flaw. Its head coach. Parham's Pick: Georgia 35, Kentucky 17
Jeffrey Wright: I don’t believe in Georgia, but this feels like a bad spot to be Kentucky because they allow over 5.0 yards per carry, and Georgia will need to prove a point.Wright’s pick: Georgia 42, Kentucky 10
Zach Berry: Sleepy late afternoon kick between the hedges, but it won’t matter. Zach’s Pick: Georgia 40, Kentucky 14
Texas A&M (-6.5) at Ole Miss, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network
Neal McCready: The Rebels' defense took a step back last week against Missouri, struggling to contain Kelly Bryant. Kellen Mond can do similar things, and Ole Miss' defense is going to be depleted for a half. This feels like a litmus test or so for this team at this moment. Maybe that's too dramatic, but it feels really big. Neal's Pick: Texas A&M 27, Ole Miss 24
Chase Parham: Kellen Mond isn't good, but the Aggies throw the ball in the middle of the field often, and Ole Miss can't defend that type of pass, at all. That matchup has me unsettled as it pertains to the home team. Ole Miss can score some, but the Rebels secondary is an issue here. Parham's Pick: TAMU 31, Ole Miss 24
Jeffrey Wright: I don’t believe in Kellen Mond, but I believe in Ole Miss’ secondary less. I also don’t think teams have as much of a hangover following the Alabama game as previously because the games aren’t nearly as physical. Wright’s pick: Texas A&M 31, Ole Miss 21
Zach Berry: I’ve gone back and forth on this one. But, I keep coming back to two things: Ole Miss has covered in every SEC game this season and A&M damn near lost to Arkansas. The Rebels’ 19th-ranked run offense will be tested by Mike Elko’s defense, but I think Matt Corral and John Rhys Plumlee make more plays than Kellen Mond and the Rebs remain undefeated at home in SEC play under the watchful eye of the Student Party Tents. Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss 32, Texas A&M 31
Tennessee (+34.5) at Alabama, 8 p.m., ESPN
Neal McCready: Ten years ago, a Lane Kiffin-coached Tennessee team very nearly knocked off Alabama in Tuscaloosa. It hasn't been particularly close since then. It won't be close Saturday either, though 34.5 points feels like a huge number. Neal's Pick: Alabama 49, Tennessee 17
Chase Parham: This is too many points. I think, right? Parham's Pick: Alabama 44, Tennessee 14
Jeffrey Wright: Alabama is 1-4 against the spread when favored by more than 30 points in SEC games since 2014, and they’re 1-3 ATS during those games at home. HOWEVER, they’re one win ATS, yep, against Tennessee. Since Derek Dooley took over at Tennessee in 2010, Alabama is 7-2 ATS during the Tennessee game and has covered every line over 20 points during that stretch. Fear the big line, my friends, for it is nothing more than a test. Wright’s pick: Alabama 52, Tennessee 14
Zach Berry: THIRD SATURDAY IN OCTOBER MAGIC IS BACK!!!!
[narrator]
It’s not.
Zach’s Pick: Alabama 41, Tennessee 14
Sunday's games
New Orleans Saints (+3) at Chicago Bears, 3:25 p.m., FOX
Neal McCready: Welcome to the psychological warfare portion of Neal's Picks. As a lifelong Bears fan, I can pick against the Monsters of the Midway and if they win, awesome. If they lose and I pick the Saints, I gain a game in the standings. There is a chance Mitchell Trubisky plays, and yes, he's better than Chase Daniel. Still, I've been very impressed with the Saints. This should be entertaining. Neal's Pick: Saints 17, Bears 13
Chase Parham: Neal knows I never pick the Saints to win and cover in these things. So I expect Saints games to be on the slate the rest of the way. Parham's Pick: Chicago 24, New Orleans 20
Jeffrey Wright: Can we tease the lines? I bet the NFL like a point guard going up against a more athletic defense. I’m starting that offense at half court and giving myself as much space as possible. The Saints feel obvious here, so I’ll lay the 3. Wright’s pick: Bears 21, Saints 17
Zach Berry: Teddy Bridgewater has been playing well, but as a former tax-paying resident of Logan Square, I’m going to go with the home team and that defense. Zach’s Pick: Bears 22, Saints 17
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Dallas Cowboys, 7:20 p.m, NBC
Neal McCready: Wait, so I get the better quarterback and points? Awesome. Neal's Pick: Eagles 23, Cowboys 20
Chase Parham: Give me the points. Dallas has an issue. Parham's Pick: Philly 28, Dallas 20
Jeffrey Wright: Fun fact, the New York Football Giants are only a game out of first. I don’t know if either team is good, so I guess I’ll take the points. Wright’s pick: Eagles 24, Cowboys 20
Zach Berry: Carson Wentz has been outstanding this season but the Cowboys should be prime for a rebound at home, where they’re 2-1 ATS this season and have yet to be beaten by an underdog. Zach’s Pick: Cowboys 27, Eagles 23