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Published Nov 9, 2018
Neal's Picks, Week 11, presented by Clark Chevrolet GMC Buick Cadillac
Neal McCready  •  RebelGrove
Publisher

THE GREEN -- So, we had two strategies at Neal's Picks heading into Week 9.

One worked swimmingly.

One didn't.

The psychological warfare _ forcing Chase Parham to pick a Saints game he had been thinking about for months _ worked as planned. Parham picked Los Angeles to win by 88 points in New Orleans. The Saints, a one-point favorite, won by 10.

It was like taking candy from a baby.

The let's-catch-up-in-one-week plan, however, did not go as hoped. Texas choked at the end against West Virginia. Purdue settled for a field goal when a touchdown would have given me a victory. Auburn won but failed to cover. Northwestern let a late cover get away.

As my disgruntled former interns have been reminded repeatedly over the past few weeks, close doesn't count in picking football games (though I am admittedly concerned about their desire to test the effectiveness of "close" as it pertains to hand grenades).

This week, we are again going with the Saints in an attempt to torture Parham and we've added other non-SEC games and a pair of Canadian Football League playoff thrillers.

In other words, we've doubled down.

Maybe we've been watching too many Donald Trump press conferences.

Anyway, on to the picks...

Last week:

Jeffrey Wright: 6-5 overall, 6-5 ATS

Neal McCready: 9-2 overall, 4-7 ATS

Chase Parham: 7-4 overall, 6-5 ATS

Barrett Clark:9-2 overall, 4-7 ATS

Corey Clark: 8-3 overall, 5-6 ATS

Overall season records:

Jeffrey Wright: 71-20 overall, 42-36 ATS

Neal McCready: 74-17 overall, 39-39 ATS

Chase Parham: 74-17 overall, 48-31 ATS

Barrett Clark: 78-13 overall, 45-33 ATS

Corey Clark: 76-15 overall, 37-41 ATS

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All games Central Standard Time:

Friday's game:

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Fresno State (-3) at Boise State, 9:15 p.m., ESPN2:

Jeffrey Wright: I really wish someone would tell Neal that you don’t get back out of a hole by betting everything on the board. It’s a bold approach to think that the solution to your problem of being unable to pick winners is to pick more games. If he really wanted to get back, he should just load up on a nice little parlay and give himself some odds. That’s the sensible thing to do. That or just LOAD up on one game, and then bet everything else after that loses. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Boise State 28, Fresno State 24

Neal McCready: Well, see, Young Jeffrey, each game here has equal freaking value, and I'm somewhat screwed. So I'm desperate. Neal's Pick: Boise State 31, Fresno State 30

Chase Parham: It was such a simpler time when we had the 500 bucks to spend each week and we could do a money competition in an effort to keep Neal from doing stupid stuff like this. It is amazing we've allowed him to keep the self title since he's annually awful at the application. Parham's Pick: Boise State 34, Fresno 27

Barrett Clark: Fresno State goes on the road for the W. Barrett's Pick: Fresno State 28 Boise State 27

Corey Clark: Corey Clark: I've got no clue. So, I'll take the points. Corey's Pick: Fresno State 21 Boise State 20

Saturday's games:

Vanderbilt (+14) at Missouri, 11 a.m., SEC Network:

Jeffrey Wright: Missouri is better than their record (losses to UGA and Bama, and a really flukey loss to Kentucky), and Vanderbilt isn’t. Also, this line screams for me to take Vanderbilt, so I will take Missouri.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Missouri 38, Vanderbilt 21

Neal McCready: Missouri saved its season and Barry Odom's hide in Gainesville, and Drew Lock appears poised to go on a roll. Vanderbilt is better than it gets credit for, but I think the Commodores are in trouble in CoMo. Neal's Pick: Missouri 34, Vanderbilt 17

Chase Parham: Oh, look, an SEC game. Those are sparse around here. I'd like the current value of this game, but that's OK. I think this turns into some semblance of a shootout. I'm not letting one week change my mind about Mizzou's defense. Parham's Pick: Mizzou 31, Vandy 24

Barrett Clark: Vandy can't handle Mizzou's Offense. Vandy's offense struggles to put points on the board until late. Barrett's Pick: Missouri 35 Vandy 20

Corey Clark: Neal sent us this thing at +14. It's now +17. Corey's Pick: Mizzou 35 Vandy 20

South Carolina (+7) at Florida, 11 a.m., ESPN:

Jeffrey Wright: This feels like a chance to buy low on Florida, so why not?Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Florida 28, South Carolina 20

Neal McCready: Florida is suddenly a mess. I think the wrong team is favored here, though after watching South Carolina in person, I can emphatically say I've never seen a more average team in my life. Neal's Pick: South Carolina 23, Florida 20

Chase Parham: I wouldn't touch this with Jeffrey's money. Florida is schizophrenic and South Carolina is mediocre outside of a couple wide receivers. I don't think Dan Mullen will let the ship completely sink. Parham's Pick: Florida 24, South Carolina 16

Barrett Clark: Florida controls most of the game with Defense. Gamecocks cover. Barrett's Pick: Florida 34 South Carolina 28

Corey Clark: I'm so glad this isn't real money. I wouldn't touch this thing with McCready's money. Corey's Pick: Florida 27 USCar 21

Ole Miss (+12) at Texas A&M, 11 a.m., CBS:

Jeffrey Wright: The Rebels are 2-5 ATS on the road under Matt Luke. A&M will get some stops while Ole Miss will get few, if any. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Texas A&M 41, Ole Miss 24

Neal McCready: Texas A&M rushes for 188 yards per game. Ole Miss gives up 210 yards per game. The Aggies average almost 458 yards per game on offense. The Rebels give up just more than 499 yards per outing. We've all seen this movie before. Maybe this time, there's an alternate ending. I'll bet, however, on consistency. Neal's Pick: Texas A&M 38, Ole Miss 24

Chase Parham: Neal is obsessed with yards per game instead of yards per play. It's purposefully ignoring other information that can assist in seeing the efficiency of something. Now, in saying that, Texas A&M's ability to run and stop the run is in fact the difference here. Kellen Mond isn't good, but active defensive fronts get to the Rebels, and A&M does enough to get its first win over Ole Miss in College Station since joining the SEC. Parham's Pick: TAMU 41, Ole Miss 27

Barrett Clark: Texas A&M looks like a New Years Day Bowl team against the Rebels. Barrett's Pick: Tamu 42 Ole Miss 28

Corey Clark: Blank stare. I'm only doing this because I know all those buttholes above me picked aTm to win and cover. Hail Mary time. Corey's Pick: Ole Miss 31 aTm 30

No. 18 Mississippi State (+26.5) at No. 1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m., CBS:

Jeffrey Wright: Let’s see. I can either have a one-dimensional quarterback with a good defense that has shown to have some secondary problems at times, or I can have Alabama. I’ll take Alabama.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Alabama 38, Mississippi State 6

Neal McCready: My goodness, that's a lot of points to lay against a team that gives up just 12.3 points per game. However, this is Alabama, which scores 51.3 points per game, often getting all of that in the pregame. The Bulldogs are one-dimensional, and Alabama eats up one-dimensional teams (hello, Joe Burrow). Neal's Pick: Alabama 38, Mississippi State 10

Chase Parham: Only one team has stayed inside this line against Alabama all year, and that's Texas A&M in an odd game back in September. I have a strange inclination to take State in this one as it may end up being one of those three-touchdown bloodbaths that's never actually in doubt. But my fingers won't type that score. Instead we'll ride with Bama and play it safe. Parham's Pick: Alabama 38, MSU 9

Barrett Clark: This pick is such a lock I'm trying to talk my dad's preacher into taking this one. Barrett's Pick: Alabama 41 State College 14

Corey Clark: I think everyone else is going to pick Bama to cover. So, I'm going to go against that. Corey's Pick: Bama 34 MSU 33

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No. 12 Kentucky (-3.5) at Tennessee, 2:30 p.m., SEC Network:

Jeffrey Wright: I’ll take my chances on the team that didn’t go scoreless for three quarters against UNC-Charlotte, please.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Kentucky 23, Tennessee 14

Neal McCready: Kentucky can't score. Tennessee can't score. That said, the Wildcats find ways to beat average or bad teams. Tennessee struggles with teams from Charlotte, and I'm not talking about the Panthers. Neal's Pick: Kentucky 21, Tennessee 10

Chase Parham: Man, this game is going to be so boring. Very, very boring. Kentucky by a touchdown. Parham's Pick: Kentucky 17, Tennessee 10

Barrett Clark: Kentucky goes to Rocky Top and makes the Prison Orange crowd cry themselves to sleep. Barrett's Pick: Kentucky 21 Tennessee 17

Corey Clark: I think everyone is going to pick Kentucky to cover. So, I'm going against that. Corey's Pick: Kentucky 17 UTK 14

Northwestern (+10) at Iowa, 2:30 p.m., FOX:

Jeffrey Wright: I think Iowa is actually a solid team that has gotten some bad breaks this year while a I think that Northwestern is a bad team that has gotten some fortunate breaks all year.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Iowa 28, Northwestern 17

Neal McCready: Two of my favorite teams square off. I wish I had a ticket. Seriously, I'd be so pumped to see this game. I have no idea why. Neal's Pick: Iowa 24, Northwestern 23

Chase Parham: Northwestern just confuses me. And, frankly, I'm getting sick of thinking about them each Thursday. Can we get Neal a Pac 12 addiction or something? Parham's Pick: Iowa 31, Northwestern 24

Barrett Clark: What's Neal's deal with Northwestern? Third week in a row. Barrett's Pick: Iowa 28 Northwestern 19

Corey Clark: I know, for sure, that Neal is going to pick Northwestern to cover. He's in next-to-last. Corey's Pick: Iowa 31 Northwestern 20

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No. 10 Washington State (-5) at Colorado, 2:30 p.m., ESPN:

Jeffrey Wright: This line is a rat. This is the classic “get people that don’t understand geography to bet on Washington State” line. Fun fact, these two schools are 1200 miles apart. I’ll take the home dog. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Washington State 24, Colorado 21

Neal McCready: Mike Leach's speech on the majesty of Ralphie the Buffalo was inspiring. I do wish he could get an SEC job and conduct one of those press conferences following a loss. Some media types would literally have a stroke. God, that would be spectacular. Neal's Pick: Washington State 27, Colorado 20

Chase Parham: These two head coaches have fascinated Ole Miss fans in multiple coaching searches along the way, and the line is about right. But I like the home dog considering the weekly stress Washington State has been under. I'm personally pulling for Gardner Minshew, though. Parham's Pick: Colorado 30, Washington State 28

Barrett Clark: Washington State covers on the road. Barrett's Pick: Washington State 33 Colorado 27

Corey Clark: It's science. Corey's Pick: Washington State 45 Colorado 42

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THE UNIVERSITY OF LOUISIANA at Monroe (-5.5) at South Alabama, 4 p.m., ESPN5:

Jeffrey Wright: I really want to bet against ULM out of spite for having to pick all of these games, but I can’t bet on a team that just let Justice Hansen put 38 on them.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: ULM 28, South Alabama 21

Neal McCready: Ever since our close call (I watched media refer to Ole Miss as "we" this week, so I thought I'd try being a complete and total homer on for size) in Oxford, we've dominated the Sun Belt. We are gonna kill the Jaguars. We are unstoppable. Neal's Pick: Harvard on the Bayou 51, South Alabama 0

Chase Parham: South Alabama is a bad football team. And I'm saying that in comparison to a ULM team that looked to be running in molasses in Oxford. Plus, I'm going to get carpal tunnel just because of this useless exercise. Parham's Pick: ULM More than 5.5, South Alabama 5.5 or more less than that.

Barrett Clark: ULM covers against South Alabama. Barrett's Pick: ULM 27 South Alabama 21

Corey Clark: Surely Neal picks his alma mater. (Have you heard he's never going to make fun of where he went to school again after this week. Also....don't call me Shirley.) Corey's Pick: USA 21 ULM 20

Auburn (+14.5) at No. 6 Georgia, 6 p.m., ESPN:

Jeffrey Wright: I still don’t believe in Auburn, and there’s no better time for them to lay an egg than after finding out that their coach is safe.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Georgia 34, Auburn 17

Neal McCready: Gus Malzahn survived. Something tells me he will wish he hadn't by the end of this month. Neal's Pick: Georgia 30, Auburn 14

Chase Parham: Georgia has a little life. Auburn has a "safe" coach and an offense problem. Let's not allow Texas A&M's meltdown to hide that. Parham's Pick: Georgia 34, Auburn 16

Barrett Clark: Georgia smokes Auburn. Barrett's Pick: Georgia 33 Auburn 17

Corey Clark: Everyone picked Georgia to cover I'm guessing. Corey's Pick: Georgia 35 Auburn 21

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No. 9 LSU (-13) at Arkansas, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network:

Jeffrey Wright: I want to believe that this line is bad, but Arkansas is 5-4-1 ATS this year, so Vegas has a decent grip on the Hogs. Orgeron is already calling out his players because he got his feelings hurt, and LSU really thought they were going to win last week. I’ll say that this will be the patented LSU no-show performance of the year on a cold night in Fayetteville. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: LSU 24, Arkansas 14

Neal McCready: Ed Orgeron once interviewed Chad Morris in Oxford for a position on the Ole Miss staff. He hired Hugh Freeze instead. Play that hypothetical in your mind for a few minutes when you get a chance. In an unrelated (mostly) note, this will be my daughter's first Arkansas game and just her third college football game in the last 11 years. I don't know what says about me as a parent. Neal's Pick: LSU 31, Arkansas 14

Chase Parham: It's the week after Alabama hangover, and LSU's goals are also different now. I think Hogs find a bit of a pulse to keep this somewhat close. Parham's Pick: LSU 24, Arkansas 16

Barrett Clark: LSU doesn't let last week effect this week. Tigers go on the road and take care of business. Barrett's Pick: LSU 31 Arkansas 17

Corey Clark: Ed dropped my Hail Mary attempt last week. Corey's Pick: Arkansas 21 LSU 20

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No. 15 Texas (-1) at Texas Tech, 6:30 p.m., FOX:

Jeffrey Wright: I’ve never seen a team get put out to pasture quite like Tech last week when they saw Bowman go down. I’ll take the talent.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Texas 34, Texas Tech 28

Neal McCready: I just want Texas to lose. After a week of cheering for the Longhorns, only for them to choke at the end, I am back to cheering against them every week. Neal's Pick: Texas Tech 31, Texas 30

Chase Parham: Texas Tech's quarterback isn't healthy, and I saw the last game the Red Raiders had in-game quarterback indecision. The Longhorns rebound from the West Virginia missed chance. Parham's Pick: Texas 38, Texas Tech 28

Barrett Clark: Texas covers against Texas Tech. "Big Brother actual wins this contest." Barrett's Pick: Texas 33 Texas Tech 31

Corey Clark: Who knows? Corey's Pick: Texas 31 TT 28

Sunday's games:

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New Orleans Saints (-5) at Cincinnati Bengals, Noon, FOX:

Jeffrey Wright: The Saints are good, and the Bengals are the Bengals. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: New Orleans 34, Cincinnati 24

Neal McCready: Here's hoping my man Andy Dalton, who's awful in January but OK in months ending with the letter R, doesn't screw up my study in human psychology. Watching Parham struggle with his rising hopes must be what he feels like dealing with my Cubdom every season. I must admit I'm amused. Neal's Pick: New Orleans 34, Cincinnati 24

Chase Parham: Who Dey vs. Who Dat. It worked last week. Let's try it again. Yes, I'll sacrifice a pick for a win. Also, have you looked at my lead on Neal? Parham's Pick: Cincinnati 91, New Orleans 3

Barrett Clark: New Orleans beats the Bangals on the road but probably won't cover. Barrett's Pick: Saints 35 Bangals 31

Corey Clark: Who Dat? (Can I take whatever Chase from Hatley picked?) Corey's Pick: New Orleans 31 Cincy 28

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British Columbia Lions (+3) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats, noon, TSN:

Jeffrey Wright: The Lions are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games while the Tiger-Cats are 3-1-1 in their last five playoff games. Both teams held serve and covered at home during the season. Let’s say the third time is a charm. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Hamilton 35, British Columbia 24

Neal McCready: The last time these two teams got together, British Columbia rolled into Hamilton and lost by 30 points a week after beating Hamilton at home in overtime. How the hell does that happen?. So yeah, I'll lay the three, but I will do it without much confidence. I do like Jeremiah Masoli quite a bit, so that's influencing my pick as well. Neal's Pick: Hamilton 31, British Columbia 27

Chase Parham:I refuse to put thought in it and play along with this. Parham's Pick: Hamilton 6, BC 0

Barrett Clark: I have a theory that we are picking Canadian Football games because they don't want a guy off the street winning this overall competition against people that do this for a living. It's as if they want to dilute the chances of me actually winning. Barrett's Pick: Tiger-Cats 28 Lions 24

Corey Clark: Eugene Levy in from Hamilton, Ontario. "Keep it real, homies." Corey's Pick: Hamilton 104 BC 100

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Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+3) at Saskatchewan Roughriders, 3:30 p.m., TSN:

Jeffrey Wright: The Blue Bombers are bad in the playoffs. Everyone knows that. Further, I couldn’t live with myself if I bet against the Roughriders and lost since Mr. Roosevelt, The Greater, is my favorite President.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Saskatchewan 34, Winnipeg 28

Neal McCready: On Sept. 8, Saskatchewan beat Winnipeg by five points. On Oct. 13, however, Winnipeg beat the Roughriders, 31-0. What a weird freaking league. I'll roll with the home team because why not? Neal's Pick: Saskatchewan 28, Winnipeg 24

Chase Parham: Give me the points. Parham's Pick: Winnipeg 4, Saskatchewan 0

Barrett Clark: Many people think John Candy's last movie was Wagon's East....it was actually Canadian Bacon which was filmed in 1993 but was not released until 1995. Barrett's Pick: Roughriders 28 Bombers 24

Corey Clark: How long has it been since you've seen a condom machine in a public bathroom? Corey's Pick: Studded Rubbers 104 Winnepeg 100

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