OXFORD | Considering Ole Miss beat Charleston Southern by 10 runs on Sunday, a play in the fourth inning that led to a run but didn’t actively drive one in doesn’t necessarily seem to be of much significance.
However, it was somewhat notable because of its recent scarcity.
TJ McCants laid down a sacrifice bunt against the Buccaneers on Sunday, moving Justin Bench to third base following a leadoff double. The Rebels were up 2-1 at the time, and that lead increased when Ben Van Cleve grounded out to the left side for an RBI a batter later.
It was the picture of old-school baseball, but it’s been a rare occurrence for the Rebels since the start of last season -- and longer than that when compared with other SEC teams. Ole Miss has chosen to swing away more often than not. The Rebels had three sacrifice bunts all of last season, the fewest in the conference.
Jacob Gonzalez, Van Cleve and Peyton Chatagnier each had one in 2021. Bench, who has been Ole Miss’ best or second-best bunter his entire career, didn’t attempt one. And the Rebels botched a couple during last season, but for the most part, it’s indicative of a shift in philosophy. Even on Sunday, it was partly done just to see if it was executed well and to show that the Rebels would do it.
“It’s two-fold this time of the year,” Ole Miss head coach Mike Bianco said. “Sometimes we may force the issue just because we want to put them in that situation. It’s not the goal for us to never sacrifice and we have to do that a little bit and we need to be better than we were a year ago… Some of that is see if we can do it and do it in a game atmosphere.”
Analytics at the Major League level have spearheaded a lessening of sacrifices at all levels of baseball. “Don’t give up outs” is a common mantra in the baseball community, and the stats back up that assertion.
Using data from six Major League Baseball seasons (2010-2015), a runner on first with no outs is expected to produce 0.859 runs in that inning. However, a runner on second with one out (a typical sacrifice result) the expected run total for the inning drops to 0.664.
With runners at first and second and no outs, the expected run total is 1.437, and that drops to 1.376 with runners at second and third and one out — a clear statistical reason to especially not bunt in early innings in that situation because it greatly reduces the chances of a big inning.
The college game has more errors and higher batting averages, among plenty of other statistical differences, so it’s not a perfect comparison, though it relates enough to be relevant.
Ole Miss averaged 23 sacrifice bunts per season from 2014-2019 and have only been in the top half of the league when it comes to number of sacrifice bunts once — sixth-most in 2019 — since 2014. Ole Miss also had the fewest in the league in 2018.
The league as a whole has bunted considerably fewer times, as well. Last season, Vanderbilt sacrifice bunted 33 times to lead the SEC, and there were 237 total sacrifice bunts from SEC teams. In 2014, the 33 sacrifices would have ranked 12th in the SEC, and there were 644 total sacrifice bunts among league teams.
The Rebels sacrifice bunted 39 times in 2014, the most they have done it during that span, but that number was tied for 11th in the league despite Ole Miss playing more games than every SEC team but Vanderbilt.
For Ole Miss, it’s about having the option, especially in late-game situations and knowing that a few players in the lineup can excel at a high clip. The latter is quite relevant since not executing a sacrifice bunt is the worst-case scenario, something that has affected Ole Miss in key situations over the years.
“Who knows what that number is in a year with total sacrifice bunts, but we need to now that we have a few guys in the lineup or on the bench who can do that,” Bianco said.
“McCants certainly is and I thought (Sunday) was an ideal time with a guy at second base, no outs, left on left and tough on him to pull the ball so can he just get the ball on the ground and move the runner up and obviously he did. And in conference play hopefully it’s another bullet in our gun.”
