Ole Miss likely would just miss the NCAA Tournament if Selection Sunday were today.

But as the Rebels turn to Southeastern Conference play with a 10-2 record, they’ve done plenty to have an opportunity for an improved resume when March rolls around. Ole Miss was picked last in the SEC in the preseason, and in addition to that being incredibly unlikely, first-year coach Kermit Davis has his group confident and in the tournament conversation as December ends.

“Record-wise if someone had told me we’d be 10-2 after being down about 27 to the Ottawa Gee-Gees in our last game in Canada I would have said 'boy you’re crazy,’” Davis said. “But we’ve made some process since then. We’re improving and getting better, but our team has to make a ton of progress over these next two months. I like where our team is and I know how difficult this league is and how difficult (at Vanderbilt) is going to be.”

[Related: Rebs wrap up unbeaten December]

The NCAA abandoned RPI as a selection metric in the offseason and replaced it with NCAA Evaluation Tool ranking which factors in game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.

When determining strength of schedule and strength of record the quadrant system is in play but it has different cutoff points depending on where the game is played.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75.

Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135.

Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240.

Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353.

Ole Miss enters conference play No. 46 in NET with the average win at 222 in the NET and average loss at 33. The Rebels’ lone blemishes are No. 27 Cincinnati on a neutral site and No. 39 Butler on the road.

Ole Miss’ best win is at home versus No. 78 San Diego — a quadrant 3 win that would move up a level if the Toreros get into the top 75 nationally. Ole Miss also has a neutral site win over Baylor, and the Bears — though currently at 124 — should see their numbers bolstered in Big 12 play if they can get anywhere close to .500 in conference games.

The SEC currently has five top 30 teams and more importantly only one (South Carolina) outside shouting distance of the top 75. After the league opener at Vanderbilt, Ole Miss hosts Auburn and travels to Mississippi State which are No. 24 and No. 18, respectively, in NET. The Rebels are also fortunate with a home date against No. 19 Iowa State for the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.

“If you look at the NET it’s 44 or 45,” Davis said after Saturday’s win over Florida Gulf Coast. “It’s so different from the place I came from. You look at that league, and I love that league, but it wouldn’t be good enough. Now we get so many opportunities, so many challenges for quadrant 1 and quadrant 2 road wins, home wins. Lot of basketball ahead of us and a lot of teams fighting for those things.”

KenPom currently predicts a 19-12 overall record and 9-9 conference slate for the Rebels with a loss to the Cyclones mixed in. Season projections take all stats into account instead of game-by-game likelihoods, though the former shows how the Rebels have little margin for error.

KenPom has Ole Miss 7-11 in the SEC in game-by-game predictions, though in eight of the losses the Rebels have between a 40 and 47 percent chance of winning — thus the better overall record prediction. In short, the formula expects the Rebels to turn a couple of those close losses into wins.

“I know the games will be really hard, and there will be ups and downs in the league,” Davis said. “That’s in any league you play in.”