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Published Jun 28, 2023
Parham: Development and portal haul to determine Ole Miss' turnaround
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Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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It’ll be another three weeks before complete grades can start to form around college baseball rosters and judge where things stand, on paper, for next season.

The Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft is July 9-11, and the NCAA transfer portal window closes on July 13. Players can still choose schools up until the start of fall classes, but they have to be in the portal by that date to transfer without penalty.

The College World Series ended on Monday, and while Oral Roberts provided a feel-good story and Wake Forest almost maximized its upper-tier development and serendipitous veteran group into a national title game appearance, the two most complete rosters played for the championship.

They were also the two programs who best worked NIL and the portal a season ago. Florida spent money to keep its roster intact, holding off professional baseball for players including ace Brandon Sproat, who turned down a third round selection from the Mets. New York could have paid Sproat $900,000 without penalty.

The Gators also plucked Hurston Waldrep out of Southern Miss, and he was one of the nation’s best No. 2 starters.

LSU, armed with more NIL artillery than any other program, won the College World Series behind a host of homegrown talent and the big-ticket portal trio of Paul Skenes, Tommy White and Thatcher Hurd. The Tigers had the best roster recipe and won the title amid expectations that expected nothing less.

It’s become LSU’s identity, as head coach Jay Johnson said during his press conference following the Tigers’ semifinal win over Wake Forest.

"If you're one of the best players in the transfer portal, there's only one place to come," Johnson said. "Last summer, I spent a lot of time with these young men, and I think they would tell you they made the right choice. I'd want to join forces with them if they're out there."

The goal is the best 40-man roster available, however you do that. To be elite in the portal, teams need to have productive pieces already on the roster. Searching for 2-3 impact players with your budget is far different from needing closer to 10 with that same budget.

That’s the situation Ole Miss finds itself after the juxtaposition of a national championship a season ago and its worst record in 25 years this season. The Rebels need to retool with transfers and get development from its current players. Even with the huge war chest, LSU could do so much damage because it had a core of returners to build off of.

Ole Miss returners Grayson Saunier, JT Quinn, Will Furniss, Judd Utermark and others are as important as the crop the Rebels reel in from other programs. They have to develop to make the roster viable.

Along with that, Ole Miss needs to keep adding productive pieces to its portal class which currently stands at five players.

The head of the present class is Duke third baseman Andrew Fischer, who had a .999 OPS as a freshman including a 1.034 OPS in ACC games. The Rebels beat LSU for Fischer and also snagged Mercer outfielder Treyson Hughes over Tennessee, Florida and a host of others.

Hughes flirted with .400 and had a .504 on-base percentage in 2023, there’s a solid track record of production with Southern Conference players to the SEC.

The Rebels have — outside of scouting circles — lesser known names on the mound with Kyler Carmack from Arkansas State and Connor Spencer from Southeastern Louisiana, but both have at least one projectable elite pitch that could translate to SEC success.

Carmack is a possible starter with a plus-plus changeup he throws to both lefties and righties and a fastball that could develop into the mid 90s but currently is in the low to mid 90s. He had the second best ERA in the Sun Belt this season.

Spencer has a swing-and-miss fastball, as he averaged one and a half strikeouts per frame in only 14 innings. He was up to 97 MPH in a game and has bumped higher than that this calendar year. The curve ball should also play at this level, making him at least a candidate for late-inning leverage.

The pitching additions aren’t guarantees, but they both have something that should be effective in the SEC which makes them high-upside value adds. The key is to keep it coming, as one person inside college baseball told me this week: “Ole Miss just needs as many humans as possible who can hit or get outs.”

Ole Miss was last in the SEC in runs scored and next to last in runs allowed this season. The three offensive players who received All-SEC buzz are expected to sign professional contracts next month. There's tremendous pressure on the Rebels' evaluations.

The Rebels also added Tampa shortstop JD Urso, who reached base in 56 straight games for the Division II Spartans. He was in the Cape this summer before fracturing a bone in his face. He chose the Rebels over Auburn.

Urso, at least as of the roster construction right now, has the most urgency to be effective in his transition. Jacob Gonzalez is gone, leaving the position fairly bare. Urso is the only player currently rostered who has experience at shortstop at the NCAA level.

Top Mississippi prospect Cooper Pratt is certainly a shortstop possibility if the Rebels dodge the Draft with him, but sources say that’s no better than a coin flip currently. Pratt’s next destination won’t be known for at least two more weeks, so Ole Miss needs to operate like he doesn’t exist and then celebrate if he does show up.

Right-hander Xander Mueth is the other main name to watch during the Draft. Catcher Campbell Smithwick is expected to show, and pitcher Josh Knoth is expected to sign.

Ole Miss’ current catcher situation is JUCO transfer Eli Berch and incoming true freshmen Smithwick and Trent Lyons.

Hunter Elliott is recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Josh Mallitz, who missed 2023 with the procedure, may sign professionally this offseason.

Ole Miss needs Ethan Groff and Xavier Rivas back on the roster next season.

The SEC is getting more than its share of top portal targets nationally, and the formula is simple but not easy: put together impact transfers with current talent. LSU has the trophy because it had the latter and hit on three of the four of the former, with Vanderbilt transfer Christian Little the outlier.

The Rebels need their evaluations to be accurate and their development to match it. And they need to keep going. The portal is open, and Ole Mis has to remain ready for business.

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