Ole Miss head coach Mike Bianco made the outside-the-box pitching decision for Friday night. It’s also, no matter the outcome, the right one.
The top-seed Rebels (41-19) will send sophomore Derek Diamond to the mound against No. 4 seed Southeast Missouri (30-20) to start their NCAA Tournament run Friday at 7 p.m. Ace Doug Nikhazy gets the ball on Saturday against either No. 2 seed Southern Miss or No. 3 seed Florida State.
Some wondered if Ole Miss drawing a four seed with one of the better mid-major aces in Dylan Dodd (.216 BAA, 113 strikeouts and 14 BB) would cause Bianco to stay scratch and pitch Nikhazy against the Redhawks, but the Ole Miss coach announced on The Matt Wyatt Show on Wednesday that Diamond will get the opening nod.
It’s a decision that can be ripe with hindsight if the Rebels fall to SEMO, but getting to 2-0 is the only goal and 1-1 is the same no matter how a team gets there.
To do that Ole Miss has to win a game with Diamond starting, and the California native handcuffing the light-hitting Ohio Valley Conference team (.272 batting average in a league that has a combined ERA of 5.66.) is more likely than swapping the days and burning Nikhazy in game one.
If Ole Miss loses on Friday, then it most likely wasn’t getting to 2-0 anyway. If its wins on Friday, then it’s set up splendidly for an All-SEC First Team selection to take the ball in a winner’s bracket game.
Diamond is also coming off one of his best performances of the season, when he pitched into the sixth inning and allowed two runs with eight strikeouts against Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament.
He’s become the de facto No. 2 since Gunnar Hoglund’s season ending elbow injury, and Diamond signed with Ole Miss — as a top 50 national prospect — for environments and opportunities like this one two days away.
Bianco is also making the best decision, as to who should face Ole Miss’ second-day opponent. He’s setting up Diamond for he best chance at success, while the Rebels have faith in Nikhazy against anyone.
Diamond will show SEMO pure stuff it hasn’t seen much this season, and the Redhawks are also the worst team in the regional at hitting home runs, a relevant stat as the right-hander’s biggest area for improvement is keeping the ball in the yard.
Diamond has allowed a team-high 12 home runs in 66.1 innings, while Nikhazy has given up seven home runs in 78.1 innings. SEMO is 154th nationally with 37 home runs this season, while USM and FSU are both in the top 30 with 67 and 74 home runs, respectively.
This is the second time Bianco has held his ace as a No. 1 seed. In 2004, Stephen Head drew the assignment instead of Mark Holliman, and Head gave up one run on a sacrifice fly, but the Rebels fell 1-0 to a two-hit, complete-game shutout from Western Kentucky’s Grady Hinchman.
That’s the oft-used example of the plan backfiring, but really it didn’t. Head did his job. The Ole Miss offense failed at scoring runs. Holliman allowed five runs and didn’t get out of the first inning against Washington the next day. You just never know.
In 2013, Bianco gambled as the No. 2 seed at North Carolina State and pitched Mike Mayers instead of Bobby Wahl against No. 3 seed William & Mary. The Rebels lost 4-2, but all four runs were unearned.
The offense and defense were flawed, not the pitching decision — though Mayers walked six in the game.
Starting Diamond on Friday gives Ole Miss the best chance to win the regional. That’s the goal, not just winning game one.
Considering Dodd’s ability — he gave up two runs in six innings in Fayetteville in February — it would have been justifiable for Bianco to roll out Nikhazy on day one.
But it wouldn’t have put Diamond in the best spot for success this weekend, the task that’s critical for staying in the winner’s bracket.
By holding Nikhazy, Ole Miss is playing to win. And not just on Friday.