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Published May 21, 2022
Rebels' NCAA Tournament fate still a question heading to Hoover
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Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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Through three innings, Ole Miss seemed well on its way to a final exclamation for three-week comeback.

The Rebels led by three runs over Texas A&M and entered the day winners of eight of their last nine SEC games, attempting to solidify an NCAA at-large berth and finish .500 in the SEC despite being seven games below .500 three weeks ago.

Instead, Texas A&M scored seven in the top of the fourth — courtesy of a grand slam and a three-run home run off Drew McDaniel — and coasted to a 12-5 victory against the Rebels to end the regular season. The Aggies are the SEC West champions and the No. 2 seed in Hoover.

Ole Miss (32-21, 14-16) is the No. 9 seed and will play No. 8 seed Vanderbilt (35-19, 14-16) in a single elimination game at 4:30 on Tuesday at Hoover Metropolitan Stadium. The winner faces No. 1 Tennessee (49-7, 25-5) in the double elimination portion of the bracket.

The Rebels could have put any indecision about their postseason future to rest with a win, but the blow-up inning and subsequent loss have Ole Miss somewhere on the bubble entering the SEC Tournament. Ole Miss is 35 in the RPI as of the end of the game on Saturday.

“I still feel pretty good about Ole Miss making the tournament, but a series win would’ve certainly done the trick,” said Kendall Rogers with D1Baseball.com. “Last year, Alabama entered the tournament with 12 wins, won two to get to 14-18 in league games and made the tournament with an RPI of 36. Ole Miss already has a better resume than that, and finished the season winning 8 of its last 10.”

Ole Miss went 5-10 at home and 9-6 on the road in SEC play.

Since 2003, 13 SEC teams have finished the regular season and SEC Tournament with 14 conference wins. Six of the 13 made the NCAA Tournament. Ole Miss was one of the teams that didn’t make it in 2017. The Rebels had a No. 37 RPI that year.

Tuesday’s game versus the Commodores is potentially meaningful. Teams that had 15 SEC wins through Hoover made it 11 of 16 times since 2002, and out of the five that didn’t, none qualified for the SEC Tournament and had an RPI better than 51.

The NCAA selection committee views the Governor’s Cup win over Mississippi State as an SEC victory, so it helps, but it’s not apples to apples when comparing to other past teams with the Rebels’ regular season resume. Alabama and Auburn are the only other SEC teams to have a chance at that additional win, so it’s not applicable in these looks at history.

“Even with a loss on Tuesday, I like how Ole Miss has played down the stretch and would probably like them in as of now,” Rogers said. “But as conference tourneys continue, if you’re an Ole Miss fan, you absolutely would not want upsets in that scenario.”

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