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Published May 10, 2019
RebsBSB Mailbag: How will the MLB Draft affect the current roster?
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Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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MORE: What are scouts saying about Ole Miss two-sport signee Jerrion Ealy?

Ole Miss (32-17, 15-9) hosts Mississippi State (39-10, 15-9) for a three-game set at Swayze Field beginning at 6:30 p.m. on Friday and continuing at 6 p.m. Saturday and finishing up at 12 p.m. Sunday. Heavy rain is expected throughout Saturday in the Oxford area.

The Rebels are at No. 18 in the RPI rankings and have six top-10 RPI games remaining in the regular season. Ole Miss is trying to host a regional for the third time in four seasons. Mississippi State -- with a top-5 RPI -- is currently in good shape for a top-8 seed.

Let's get to the questions.

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Other than Ryan Rolison, who went in the first round of last year's MLB First Year Player Draft, the nation's top enrolled signing class from 2016 is eligible to hear their names called this June.

While it's possible for the majority of the class to be selected at some point in the 40 rounds, we'll focus on the top five possibilities: Cooper Johnson, Grae Kessinger, Thomas Dillard, Cole Zabowski and Will Ethridge. Also, remember, it only takes one team to love a player. All 30 don't have to agree.

With the Draft a month away, I spoke to multiple scouts to get opinions on these players.

Cooper Johnson: The Illinois native was arguably the top defensive catcher coming out of high school, and he's put up his best season to date during this contract year. Johnson has one of the best arms in college baseball and has thrown out 15-of-31 would-be base stealers in 2019.

His receiving has improved, and there have been fewer mental lapses with balls popping off his mitt. Johnson has matured during his three seasons and has added a competent bat to his arsenal, hitting .288 with an .868 OPS.

While still not getting top-level Draft buzz, Johnson should have a chance at the top-100 picks and go in the first five rounds. With the tools to be a Major Leaguer behind the plate, Johnson's "ambush bat" is another positive. While he's never going to play for his bat, he gets the most out of his swings and could go on some streaks at the next level. Scouts wanted to see him maximize his plate appearances, and he's done that this season.

He's steadily improved his temperament and is seen as a player who could jump up higher if one team decides his floor is as their backup catcher for a number of seasons.

Grae Kessinger: The Ole Miss shortstop is hitting .436 in conference play with a 1.124 OPS. He leads the league in average and is second in on-base, slugging and total bases, and in conference play, he's struck out just nine times in 115 plate appearances.

Kessinger's Draft profile is similar to Johnson with the third round being the average consensus while there being the possibility for a little movement in either direction. The injuries two straight summers took away valuable Cape League at-bats and held back some potential buzz, but the SEC numbers are legitimate and teams believe he can stick at shortstop through the system. Also, nothing was mentioned to me about his medical being a possible problem.

There's some projectable power, and speed is the biggest weakness, though teams are valuing that less and less in today's professional game.

Thomas Dillard: There are some unknowns and some key positives with Dillard. He's a three-year starter with excellent plate awareness and pop from both sides of the plate as a switch hitter. The multiple summers in the Cape League are another small plus in his profile -- as is his athleticism.

The biggest question mark is where to play him. Most teams view him as a corner outfielder, though his catching has improved and there's at least the potential thought that a club could believe there's untapped potential behind the plate than what's been developed because of Johnson on the same team. He's the perfect illustration of how it just takes one team. Should a team think he can catch, switch-hitting catchers who can run have value.

The fifth round seemed to be the top estimate out of my conversations, and it's going to take a team to believe in a position with him. Dillard is expected to sign in the top-10 rounds, but there are some questions about which part of that wide guess will feature his name. Some teams won't pull the trigger because of the position question.

Will Ethridge: The Ole Miss ace has been one of the SEC's most consistent frontline arms during his lone season in the starting rotation. He's averaging right at a strikeout per inning with a 1.21 WHIP in conference play.

The walks are a little high with 16 in 47.1 innings, but he's averaging six innings per start despite leaving the Florida game early with a blister issue. The action is easy, and there's good run on his fastball. The offspeed stuff has improved and comes out of the same slot.

His success in the SEC and 6-foot-5 frame are also big positives. But right-handers pitching in the low 90s are sometimes seen as a dime-a-dozen in the prospect world -- relative to those who throw with the other arm. Ethridge could slide down into the lower parts of the top-10 rounds but should see a six-figure payday and get close to slot or a little above depending on the spot. With no arm issues and swing-and-miss stuff, he's of value at the next level. As of now, most expect him to go off the board between rounds five and seven.

Cole Zabowski: Is it possible for a preseason First Team All-SEC player to be underrated? That's potentially the case with Zabowski, as he's rarely the first or second offensive Rebel mentioned in conversation, but he's fourth in SEC in league total bases and second in slugging percentage.

He's a tremendous college hitter, but scouts are relatively concerned with his ability to play first base and whether the overall hit tool translates at the highest professional levels. One scout compared him to former Ole Miss slugger Sikes Orvis, a 17th round pick in 2015. Zabowski will certainly get a professional call, but the slot value could potentially leave him with a decision about signing.

Either way, Ole Miss wouldn't be in a potential host position without him.

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This could go a couple different directions. Jake Mangum just set the SEC career record for hits, and he plays a very good center field for the Bulldogs. So, from a hitting machine standpoint, Brian Pettway (2005) holds the school record with 102 hits. But Pettway also had 21 home runs that season which doesn't fit the profile.

Jordan Henry and Justin Henry each had 99 hits in 2007 and could run. Jordan played great defensively, but that was his first season when he was still learning the infield-to-outfield conversion. Justin had a similar tenacity to Mangum and was a leader in that era.

But I have two answers:

1. Auston Bousfield led a great defensive outfield in 2014, as Ole Miss finished third in the nation. Bousfield won the Ferriss Trophy as the state's top player and had 96 hits on the way to All-America honors.

2. Stephen Head was the face of the Ole Miss rebuild in the early Bianco years, and he's the program's only three-time All-America selection. While Head and Mangum don't profile similarly with their games, Head was a dogged competitor who willed his teammates to wins and achievements. Both are great college players and the figureheads of successful stints for each respective program.

I wonder how things would be different had Mangum stuck with Alabama instead of flipping to Mississippi State. It's hard to imagine the Bulldogs would be just as good without him. Would Alabama be more competitive in the SEC? And would Mangum be a notable figure in SEC baseball history? No way to know but it seems to have worked out for everybody but the Tide.

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The first option was last season's recipe that didn't work out, but it's still the unquestioned answer. Ole Miss has hosted eight regionals since 2004 and are 17-7 in home regionals (17-5 since 2005), advancing to super regional play five of those times.

In road regionals since 2001, Ole Miss is 8-14 overall and 0-2 in games to advance to a super regional.

Playing at home provides the best opportunity, and Ole Miss won't face a two seed better than Texas A&M, Arkansas or LSU. Just win. And playing at home is the best way to do that.

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Even if all the juniors leave early, Tyler Keenan will have one of those spots during his junior season. Kevin Graham is a decent possibility to sport another place in the middle of the Ole Miss order.

The freshman is only hitting .231 in conference, but he's had a knack for big spots, hitting four home runs and six extra base hits in mostly major moments -- including a three-run home run Sunday at LSU. Scouts loved his bat out of high school but were unsure about a position -- at least to the point of offering enough to bypass college. He's played a serviceable first base and allowed Zabowski to excel at designated hitter.

It's fair to expect Graham to take a step in hard-contact percentage as a sophomore, and there's a lot of upside to his game. Occupying a larger role also requires a transition, but he can hit, and Ole Miss needs him to keep progressing for 2020.

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The RPI Needs Report at BoydsWorld.com says Ole Miss needs four more wins to achieve a top-16 RPI but can't reach the top eight in the regular season. The tool is in a vacuum and not foolproof but a useful guide that mostly gets in the correct ballpark by the end of the season.

The Rebels need help to get a national seed no matter how they finish, but there is technically a couple different paths based on history and logic. Currently, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Louisville seem to have national seeds in view barring major collapses. I think East Carolina is in great shape, as well, with a No. 3 RPI, No. 10 non-conference RPI and No. 16 strength of schedule, but only six games against the top 25 and 14 games against the top 50 should be concerns.

That only leaves two or three spots potentially in the top eight, and looking at the last three seasons you see several different scenarios as it pertains to SEC top-8 seeds. Last year four SEC teams were in that group, and three had 18-12 conference records. In 2017 LSU and Florida were SEC national seeds with 21-9 SEC records.

And in 2016 there were seven SEC hosts and four national seeds. Nineteen regular season conference wins were the threshold, and South Carolina missed a top-8 seed at 20-9 in the league and 22-4 in the non-league because of a No. 13 RPI. The Gamecocks went 0-2 in Hoover that season.

For national seed consideration I think Ole Miss needs to get to 20 regular season conference wins, which would give the Rebels a blistering 9-3 or 10-2 combined record against LSU, Arkansas, MSU and Texas A&M, or go 19-11 with a Hoover run to the championship game.

A lot of RPI points are at stake at the SEC Tournament, likely making it a critical opportunity to improve a resume or at least to hold serve and not be passed by other teams. The non-league is Ole Miss' worst resume line, and while it's bolstered by games against ECU and Louisville, the losses are still losses and the Rebels have a Governor's Cup defeat that the committee sees on the league record line.

As long as Ole Miss beats Arkansas State next week, a 3-3 record and at least one win in Hoover should put the Rebels on the plus side of the hosting bubble thanks to top 25 wins, league record and games against the top 50. If not then the non-league schedule was the deadly bullet, but compared to other regional host competitors, the metrics look like enough in that scenario.

But, for a national seed, Ole Miss has a lot of work to do.

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