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Published May 29, 2018
Simulations give Rebels 53 percent chance of winning Oxford Regional
Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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Ole Miss is the No. 4 national seed entering regional play Friday, but a popular information website says the Rebels have the 10th best chance of advancing to super regional play out of the 16 host teams.

WarrenNolan.com simulated the regionals 100,000 times apiece to determine the probability of each team advancing to a super regional. The simulation advanced Ole Miss 53.1 percent of the time with No. 2 seed Tennessee Tech showing as the Rebels' best competition and getting a probability of 29.8 percent.

No. 3 seed Missouri State received a 9.1 percent probability, and four-seed Saint Louis finished last in the simulations at eight percent.

Tennessee Tech has the fourth-best chance of moving forward, according to the simulations, compared to the other 15 two seeds, falling behind Southern Miss (32), UCLA (32.2) and South Florida (30.9).

WarrenNolan.com's Resid Prediction had a 71 percent success rate out of 851 games during the regular season.

Tennessee Tech beat host Florida State in the first round of regional play a year ago before losing 5-3 games to Auburn and Florida State. The Eagles are 4-10 all-time in regional games.

Missouri State and Saint Louis are among the lowest percentages for their seed groups. The Bears have been in super regionals two of the last three seasons, losing to Arkansas in 2015 and TCU in 2017.

Saint Louis is 0-6 in three NCAA trips since 2006.

WARREN NOLAN HOST TEAM WIN PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE

Florida 68. 1

Stanford 68.9

Oregon State 66.2

Ole Miss 53.1

Arkansas 48.3

North Carolina 73

Florida State 56

Georgia 45.6

Texas Tech 37.9

Clemson 54.6

Stetson 58

East Carolina 55

Texas 41

Minnesota 47.9

Coastal Carolina 68.2

NC State 47.1


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