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Published Aug 24, 2021
The 3-2-1, presented by Nix-Tann Oxford: Is Chance Campbell an upgrade?
Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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This is your 3-2-1, a content item that will appear weekly during the preseason and each Sunday once the season begins. While it will almost always be football focused, other topics may be included as needed.

The content is brought to you by Nix-Tann and Associates. Click the image above or call 662-281-1200 for all of your real estate needs. Clay Deweese, O'Keefe Graham and their experienced, dedicated team bring decades of combined experience in the Oxford area, and their website makes it easy to view and compare your options for a new home. Clay also serves Oxford and Ole Miss in the Mississippi Legislature as State Representative for House District 12

Let Nix-Tann and Associates in Oxford help you with either side of the real estate buying process and mention RebelGrove.com when you contact them.

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THREE THINGS WE LEARNED

1 - Chance Campbell, statistically, is an upgrade over Jacquez Jones

Ole Miss is attempting to improve its defense from one of the worst nationally a year ago, and a lot of the optimism has to do with a second year in the system and more production at linebacker and the defensive backfield.

The secondary has some players at new positions and new faces as well as a full year with Otis Reese, who missed most of 2020 in NCAA eligibility hell. But at linebacker, it’s many of the same roster members except for the departure of Jacquez Jones to Kentucky and arrival of Maryland transfer Chance Campbell.

When looking at last season’s advanced analytics, courtesy of our friends at PFF College, Campbell provides more all-around value when compared to Jones’ 2020 numbers.

In Jones’ nine games, all against SEC competition, his average PFF score was 57.5 with a 58.7 in run defense, 76.2 in tackling, a 68 in pass rush and a 53.5 in coverage. Campbell, in his four games for Maryland (the Big Ten played a limited schedule and COVID caused cancellations), Campbell averaged a 74.5 overall score, with a 76.3 in run defense, a 79.1 in tackling, 62.2 in pass rush and a 67.5 in coverage.

Jones averaged 48 snaps per game, and Campbell averaged 64 snaps per game. Jones had games above a 70 against Vanderbilt (74.9) and LSU (71.1) and his lowest game scores were against Auburn (40.7) and Florida (48.1). Campbell’s four game scores were 64.5 (Northwestern), 75.8 (Minnesota), 67.3 (Penn State) and 70 (Indiana).

Jones had a season-high nine tackles against Indiana, while Campbell had 13 against Northwestern and 10 against the Hoosiers. Jones is expected to start at middle linebacker for the Wildcats this season, while Campbell is in the rotation at both linebacker positions for the Rebels.

2 - Rebels add a graduate transfer from South Carolina

Ole Miss added another relevant name to its offensive line on Monday with the addition of former South Carolina lineman Jordan Rhodes.

The South Carolina graduate is immediately eligible after entering the transfer portal on August 13 and has two years of eligibility remaining. He appeared in 20 games for the Gamecocks during his career including 12 in 2019, when he started multiple times at guard.

The 6-foot-3, 345-pounder was a three-star prospect in the class of 2017 out of Creekside High School in Fairburn, Georgia.

The Rebels have a pretty set starting five and more inside depth than outside beyond the starters. Center Orlando Umana has missed the past week with an injury, but Lane Kiffin said Saturday there have been no significant injuries to important players.

PFF College only has Rhodes playing eight snaps in 2020. He initially opted out of the season before returning to the roster. In 2019, he started 10 games, playing 765 total snaps. He had a 60.3 season grade with a high of 73.4 against Vanderbilt.

3 - Dannis Jackson is getting opportunities to secure a role

Dannis Jackson, from what we can see at practice, is getting a lot of opportunities to take a step in the Ole Miss offense, and he’s certainly flashing at times thanks to his speed and athleticism, which are never in doubt.

Consistency is the key to Jackson’s role this season. He’s had some drops and struggles against physical coverage in the periods that media have been allowed to watch, but the highlights are noteworthy, and Jackson seemingly had his best practice during the final scrimmage that we had full access to watch. He routinely uses his quickness to get open and be a viable option for the quarterbacks.

Whether he can do that routinely is the question and a yes would mean another element for this Ole Miss offense. After catching seven passes as a true freshman, Jackson only had two targets a year ago — an incompletion and a drop. He played only 17 snaps on passing plays during the season with a high of five which came against Indiana in the Outback Bowl.

Jackson was in the slot on 12 of those passing plays and out wide on the other five snaps.

There’s opportunity available with Elijah Moore’s absence and the more proven options at receiver playing out wide. Ole Miss is providing plenty of chances. Whether Jackson takes advantage of that is one of the storylines as camp moves toward opening week.

TWO QUESTIONS

1 - Can Ole Miss stop Malik Cunningham on the ground?

Whether and to what degree the Ole Miss defense has improved is the biggest variable heading into the 2021 season for the Rebels, and so much of that answer will be in how Ole Miss gets off the field on third down.

Ole Miss was 106th nationally in third down defense a year ago, allowing opponents to convert 48 percent of the time. The Rebels need Sam Williams and company to get to the quarterback off the edge and the improved secondary to convert their extra athleticism into stops in the second and third levels.

But, in the opener, getting off the field also includes hemming in Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham. On the season, Cunningham had 56 rushes for 789 yards (taking out sack and non-rushing play numbers) and seven touchdowns.

Cunningham ran more as the season progressed in 2020 and blistered Virginia for 224 yards on eight carries, Boston College for 134 yards on 12 carries and Wake Forest for 73 on nine carries — all three of those coming in the last month of the season.

Cunningham also fumbled nine times as he took on contact more than past years, upping his yards after contact average to 4.04 per carry from 2.90 in 2019. He fumbled in five of the last six games of the season.

The turnover-prone nature could be a huge boost to the Ole Miss defense if it could force one or more balls to the ground, while Cunningham getting loose could keep the Cardinals on the field and the Rebels’ offense on the sideline.

He averaged 11 yards per carry last season when he was forced from the pocket and wasn’t sacked. Twenty-one of those 41 quarterback scrambles went for at least 10 yards.

2 - Does Orlando Umana's absence matter with OL cohesiveness?

Umana, as mentioned above, has been out of action since sustaining an injury on August 14 during a morning practice. While there are no indications that it’s a serious ailment, Umana’s lack of snaps during his first year with the Rebels is noteworthy.

The transfer from Utah has played a lot of football in his career, but he hasn’t played a lot of football recently, appearing in just one game in 2020. He started for the Utes against USC, but an injury sidelined him for the rest of the season. Tackle Nick Broeker praised Umana for how quickly he developed cohesiveness with the rest of the offensive line, but his return does seem somewhat important as the Rebels move toward game week.

Umana appeared in 40 games for Utah from 2017-2020 with 26 starts — 22 at center and four at left guard. He missed two games with an injury in 2019. Umana’s snap counts by season — 18 in 2017, 928 in 2018, 729 in 2019 and 49 in 2020.

Bryce Ramsey took the first team snaps at center during Saturday’s scrimmage. Ben Brown and Caleb Warren are also options at the position, though the Rebels want to keep Brown at guard if at all possible.

Ole Miss is experimenting with some positions changes, as Jalen Cunningham recently moved from offensive line to defensive line, and LeDarrius Cox went from defensive line to offensive line on the official roster on Monday.

ONE PREDICTION: Matt Corral breaks the school passing touchdown mark

Matt Corral threw 29 touchdowns in 2020, facing an all-SEC schedule and only playing 10 games instead of the 13 that should be the case this year. That is tied for the third-most in school history behind Eli Manning (2001) and Chad Kelly (2015) who each threw for 31 touchdowns to tie for the all-time lead.

With the extra games and non-conference opponents to potentially help pad numbers, it’s a moderate likelihood that Corral will obtain the top touchdown mark in Ole Miss football history by the end of the calendar year.

The Rebels are run heavy compared to their stereotype and should be better at getting goal-line push in the middle of the offensive line this season.

That will help the overall offense but could siphon some of Corral’s touchdown tosses near the end zone. But Corral will get his, and Lane Kiffin and Jeff Lebby are creative in their ability to free up playmakers for opportunities in the red zone.

Corral, who owns three of the top-20 single game passing yardage marks in school history, including the top mark of 513 yards against South Carolina, could challenge Kelly’s 4,042 yards in a season, as Corral’s per-game total last year would have clipped that with three more opportunities.

And Corral is also in line to be the most efficient quarterback in Ole Miss history. His 70.9 completion percentage in 2020 is a school record by more than five percent, and his efficiency rating in 2020 was 177.6, the best in school history by a wide margin over Kelly’s 155.8 in 2015. He’s also the career leader in both those categories.

Corral has to stay healthy, and he’s not going to play enough games (assuming he goes pro at the end of the year) to catch some of Manning’s career records, but he’s another season like 2020 from establishing himself as the best pound-for-pound quarterback in school history from a statistical standpoint.

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