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Published Oct 30, 2021
The 3-2-1, presented by Nix-Tann Oxford: Rebels surviving OL shuffle
Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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@ChaseParham

This is your 3-2-1, a content item that appears weekly during the football seeason. While it will almost always be football focused, other topics may be included as needed.

The content is brought to you by Nix-Tann and Associates. Click the image above or call 662-281-1200 for all of your real estate needs. Clay Deweese, O'Keefe Graham and their experienced, dedicated team bring decades of combined experience in the Oxford area, and their website makes it easy to view and compare your options for a new home. Clay also serves Oxford and Ole Miss in the Mississippi Legislature as State Representative for House District 12

Let Nix-Tann and Associates in Oxford help you with either side of the real estate buying process and mention RebelGrove.com when you contact them.

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THREE THINGS WE LEARNED

1 - Orlando Umana's versatility is huge for Rebs

Orlando Umana came to Ole Miss for the sole reason of solidifying the center position and helping the Rebels improve in year two of the Lane Kiffin era.

Turns out, he is plenty capable at guard, as well.

Umana had only played center prior to the LSU game, but with Ben Brown out for the year with a biceps injury and Caleb Warren not able to play a full against against the Tigers, the Utah transfer played 36 snaps at center and 43 at guard, doing a quality job against a good LSU front at both positions.

It’s the first time he had been at right guard this season or in his career, but he has experience at left guard during his time in the Pac-12. Umana played all 18 of his limited snaps at guard as a true freshman with the Utes in 2017, and in 2018, he was at guard for 232 of his 928 snaps.

“We just have to keep moving guys around,” Kiffin said. “Our motto has turned into find a way to win. At the end of the games like the two weeks before this, now with the offense it's just find a way to win with whatever players are going where. Whatever we have to do.”

Umana was the full-time center in 2019 with Utah.

Against LSU, he allowed two quarterback pressures in 32 pass-block snaps.

Bryce Ramsey will play center if Umana has to move over against Auburn. Ramsey has played in four games this season, with LSU the first since Tulane in week three.

2 - Bo Nix has had quality games against Rebels

Bo Nix won’t have any shortage of confidence against the Rebels. It’s up to Ole Miss to show him this is a different defense.

A year ago, Nix blistered Ole Miss with 23 completions in 30 attempts and 238 yards with a touchdown, as the 76 percent completion percentage kept drives going and made way for Auburn’s run game. Nix also ran for 52 yards and a score.

Two years ago, Nix threw for 340 yards on 30-of-44 passing. He ran for a touchdown and did just enough in a low-scoring 20-14 Auburn win. In 2020, the Tigers won 35-28, as a late-game officiating error played into the final score.

Nix has been efficient this season but unspectacular. He has eight touchdowns and two interceptions with 7.0 yards per attempt. He also hasn’t been helped by receivers, as Auburn has 25 drops in 2021.

3 - There's a pattern to the last 10 meetings

Ole Miss is just 2-8 versus Auburn in the last decade, and the cumulative stats provide a clear picture of what’s gone wrong and a key to today’s game.

Ole Miss’ wins out of the last 10 are in 2012 and 2015, but the Tigers have taken the rest of them despite the two teams averaging the exact same total yardage — Ole Miss and Auburn are both at 449 yards per game over the last 10 meetings between them.

The average score over the last decade is Auburn 31, Ole Miss 25.

It’s how they’ve gotten there that’s a key. Ole Miss has thrown for 288 yards per game against Auburn since 2011, which the Tigers throwing for only 219 per game but not having to do much through the air.

Auburn, in those 10 meetings, has run for 230 yards per game and only thrown the ball 24 times. Ole Miss has thrown it 40 times per game and run for 160 yards. The Rebels have also committed 13 turnovers during that span to Auburn’s nine giveaways.

Ole Miss needs to force Nix to win this one while imposing its run game, especially with the potentially limited number of wide receivers available.

TWO QUESTIONS

1 - Is today Matt Corral's Heisman game?

Vegas likes Matt Corral’s Heisman chances, but a good portion of national media and pundits who often dictate opinion have been bullish on not including Corral in that conversation, looking for cute alternatives instead of the best quarterback in the country.

Whether Corral’s candidacy has true viability or not could hinge on tonight in eastern Alabama. With an ESPN night audience and a matchup of top-20 teams on the road, the pendulum seems set to go either way based on Corral’s game.

The injuries have mounted on the offensive side of the ball, which makes his performances even more impressive, but Lane Kiffin mentioned on Monday that those details are often overlooked, leading to the best player not always winning the award.

And the truth is, stats do matter. Corral, despite being down at least one starting offensive lineman and likely multiple wide receivers, needs to carry the Rebels to a win and put up relatively gaudy stats in the process. That’s the truth of it.

And it’s possible. He’s been brilliant this season and a leader and the main reason for the Rebels’ 6-1 start. And this is maybe his best moment — A&M may also be an argument here — to shine against a quality time with the national spotlight.

2 - Can Ole Miss write some positive history on The Plains

The state of Alabama has been quite unkind to Ole Miss when it comes to road games. It’s a known by most that the Rebels have struggled in Tuscaloosa, winning just twice — in 1988 and 2015, but it’s not a lot better on The Plains.

In series history, Ole Miss has won three times at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Rebels knocked off the Tigers in the first game against Tommy Tuberville, in 1999, Eli Manning led a late game winning drive and got a key drop from Ben Obamanu in 2003 and Chad Kelly and Laquon Treadwell sprinted past Auburn in 2015.

That’s the list, as the Tigers are 12-3 in home games since the two teams began playing annually in 1990. Prior to that, there were one eight games between the schools since 1953 and two of those were bowl games - the Liberty Bowl in 1965 and Gator Bowl in 1971.

Auburn opened as a 1-point favorite in Las Vegas sports books, and that moved to three points by Monday, where it has stabilized the rest of the week.

ONE PREDICTION: Mark Robinson continues stretch of impact games

Mark Robinson is one of the better stories in the SEC this season, as the converted FCS running back has made a major impact on Ole Miss’ defense at linebacker.

Robinson, who played at Presbyterian and Southeast Missouri prior to joining the Rebels, put up one of the more efficient stat lines you’ll see a week ago, collecting 12 tackles in only 33 plays versus LSU. He had 14 tackles against Tennessee and nine against Arkansas, with his playing time increasing substantially in recent weeks.

With Auburn’s interest in running the football and Nix’s desire to make plays outside of the pocket for the Tigers, Robinson will have plenty of opportunities and be counted on greatly on Saturday night.

For someone new to the position, Robinson has also been excellent at finishing plays, converting tackles 92 percent of the time when he reaches the ball carrier.

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