OXFORD — My friend and Rivals colleague, Gabe DeArmond, covers Missouri.
The Tigers, like Ole Miss, are 3-0 and ranked in the top 10 nationally, winners of 13 of their last 15 games and very much ahead of the curve in the NIL era college football world.
DeArmond had an interesting post today at PowerMizzou.com, and he gave me permission to use it here.
“Right now, I think most would agree there are six teams with a realistic shot at the playoff: Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, Mizzou,” DeArmond said. “There are others that theoretically could get there but it doesn't seem likely. The playoff will have five conference champions, including the SEC champ. That will presumably be one of the six teams listed above. There are seven other spots available. We talked a lot on the live show about the chances for five of those spots to go to the SEC."
“Here's how it becomes most likely: First, none of the six teams above can lose a game to anyone not on the list. That means South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Vandy, Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi State pull no upsets of the top six teams. That's a must for this scenario.
“Second, what happens elsewhere will have an impact. Probably need another Notre Dame loss somewhere. Need to make sure the ACC and Big 12 are one-bid conferences. Probably could use another Penn State loss (or USC or Oregon dropping a couple).
“Yesterday, I listed the games between the top six teams in the SEC:
Texas: Georgia
Tennessee: Georgia, Alabama
Georgia: Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss
Ole Miss: Georgia
Alabama: Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri
Missouri: Alabama
So, let's run through these:
Georgia beats Texas and Ole Miss, but loses to Alabama and Tennessee. Alabama beats Missouri.
If that happens you've got 11-1 Texas, 11-1 Ole Miss, 11-1 Missouri, 10-2 Georgia, 11-0 Tennessee and 11-0 Alabama with only the Alabama/Tennessee game remaining. The winner is 12-0 and in the SEC title game, the loser is 11-1 tied with Texas, Ole Miss and Mizzou. None of those teams play each other, none would have beaten Alabama and I'm not particularly interested in figuring out what the tiebreaker would be. I'll default to highest ranking, which I'll say is Texas at this point.
“SEC title game: 11-1 Texas vs 12-0 Alabama. Both are in. At-large bids: 11-1 Tennessee, 11-1 Ole Miss, 11-1 Missouri, 10-2 Georgia.
“I can't see any of those six teams getting left out of the playoff if that happens. Is it likely to happen? Almost certainly not. An SEC season without any significant upsets would be shocking. But the point is there is a mathematical path to six SEC teams winning 10 games or more (six could win 11 if you just give Georgia a win over the Alabama/Tennessee winner in the above scenario).
“In this very specific situation, I think it's reasonable that six SEC teams would make the playoff. In fact, I'd argue it would be an absolute travesty for any of those six to get left out if it unfolded that way.”
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Jones’ self-bet paying off: Ole Miss running back Matt Jones bet on himself when he walked on in Oxford. It was a tribute of sorts to his former Jackson Prep teammate Jerrion Ealy, who had starred for the Rebels following high school.
“I just wanted to follow his footsteps and now here I am,” Jones said.
Of course, there were never any guarantees for Jones, especially as Ole Miss brought in several running backs through the transfer portal. Instead of pouting, Jones worked to “soak in the knowledge from each of the guys who’ve come through — Quinshon (Judkins), Zach Evans, Ealy, Snoop (Conner), having Henry Parrish Jr. back.”
“I just wanted to finish with my guys,” Jones said. “I never really had a thought of leaving. I’m glad I stayed.”
Through three games, Jones is second on the Ole Miss team — behind Parrish — with 165 yards and three touchdowns on 22 carries.
“I knew I would have to step up and do my role,” Jones said. “I’m just being ready when my number is called.”
Perkins getting comfortable on edge: Ole Miss defensive end Suntarine Perkins, a converted linebacker, figures to have a bigger role this week if Jared Ivey is limited or out versus Georgia Southern after having to be carted off the field this past weekend at Wake Forest.
Perkins said Tuesday he’s adapting to the position after having a full offseason working at the position. Perkins has five tackles and an interception so far this season. He said he’s learned a lot from playing with SEC veterans such as Princely Umanmielen, Walter Nolen, JJ Pegues and Ivey.
“They help me out every practice,” Perkins said. “Being with those guys and seeing what they’re capable of and what I can learn from them. …Those guys get after it every play.”
