With Christmas now complete and more than half of Ole Miss' signees already in for the 2018 recruiting class, a decent amount of fan interest will shift to the start of baseball season. Here are some questions with my best answers about a month prior to the start of practice.
The Rebels open the season February 16 against Winthrop and also host Eastern Illinois and Tulane in weekend nonconference series. A trip to Long Beach State highlights the non-SEC portion of the schedule.
Ole Miss misses Florida, Kentucky and Missouri in the SEC schedule rotation.
From @KingOlemissking: What’s the baseball line-up if the season started tomorrow? Weekend rotation?
My projections prior to the start of spring practice feature three true freshmen in a starting spot and a pitching staff that has a first round pick as the anchor and potentially the best back-end of the bullpen in the SEC. Here's what I have as of December 26. This is a defensive lineup. I have no idea at a batting order.
C- Cooper Johnson
1B - Nick Fortes
2B - Anthony Servideo
SS - Grae Kessinger
3B - Tyler Keenan
LF - Thomas Dillard
CF - Will Golsan
RF - Ryan Olenek
DH - Tim Rowe
There's some versatility here, but I like this lineup once some moving parts get settled during the first couple weeks of the season. I expect Fortes to catch a decent number of innings so Johnson isn't overworked and also to allow some mixing at first base and designated hitter.
True freshman Tim Elko, who was Ole Miss' highest rated signee to make it to campus this year, will get at-bats and can play the corner infield spots. I also expect sophomore first baseman Cole Zabowski to get an opportunity. Rowe may end up in a left-right platoon at the DH spot.
Another wildcard is junior college transfer Jacob Adams. He missed the fall with a foot injury but he's going to play somewhere in the spring. The coaching staff is high on him, and he's at least expected to transition well to this level -- something that isn't close to a given with typical JUCO products.
For the pitching portion of the lineup, here's a best guess at this time.
Friday: Ryan Rolison
Saturday: Brady Feigl
Sunday: James McArthur
Tuesday: Greer Holston
Rolison was the best pitcher in the Cape this past summer, and he's draft eligible following this season so enjoy him while he's here. Feigl and McArthur are interchangable, but I'll go with this order for now. McArthur should stand up well in the middle spot, and Feigl has explosive potential if he gains consistency and handles adversity a little better. He was unlucky and panicked a touch at times last season.
From @ppearce4861: Who will be our middle relief guys that we see often?
I expect the following pitchers -- in no order -- to play into some niche with Ole Miss this season -- barring injury or something unforeseen.
Rolison
McArthur
Feigl
Will Stokes
Will Ethridge
Dallas Woolfolk
Austin Miller
Connor Green
Parker Carraci
Houston Roth
Jordan Fowler
Greer Holston
I've named the expected starters, and Stokes and Woolfolk are going to be at the back of the bullpen. Ethridge could start if needed, but for the sake of this exercise, I have him in there with Woolfolk and Stokes in an effort to shorten games and add a potentially elite third option to the bullpen.
Fowler, is a very talented left-handed freshman, who is healthy following a serious car accident during the summer. He also may start in the midweek, but that would leave the bullpen without a left option unless it's Emmanuel Fernandez, who is a former Miami commit that landed with the Rebels late in the process.
Roth was exceptional in relief last season, and Ole Miss is hoping for improvement from Caracci and Green. There are signs for both, as Caracci was great this past summer, and Green dropped his arm slot, making him one of the more frustrating teammates to face during fall intrasquads.
Miller, a 6-foot-7 junior college transfer sophomore, will settle his fastball from 89-92 MPH, and he's going to pitch, but I'm not sure of the role at this point.
From @winedoc04: Is there a key weekend series that would give insight to how far this team could go?
Ole Miss hosts Arkansas the final three days of March, capping off two weeks of difficult baseball against likely SEC West favorites.
After hosting Tennessee and needing a good start to league play, Ole Miss travels to Texas A&M and returns to play the Razorbacks before heading to Starkville for Super Bulldog Weekend.
The Arkansas series is my choice because the Rebels have a good bit of experience and shouldn't need weeks to know their roles and settle in. Also, by that point Ole Miss will have played at least three Omaha contenders with Arkansas, TAMU and Long Beach -- six of those nine games on the road.
Sure, there are teams that turn things around and get hot late, but when the calendar turns to April, the likely expectation based on on-the-field performance should be known. Arkansas and the Aggies may be picked 1-2 in the SEC West, depending on how you project Ole Miss' offense and LSU's inexperience.
The second half of Ole Miss' schedule is more manageable even though opponent uniforms will say LSU and South Carolina.
From @Steelersouth: Name your top 3 most improved hitters for 2018?
Cooper Johnson: Johnson started his collegiate career with a monumental slump, going 7-for-51 at the plate through the middle of April with only one multi-hit game and an 0-for-26 stretch mixed in. However, after that point, the at-bats looked better and he had at least a hit in 12 of his final 17 games. He's never going to hit .400 on a season, but Johnson's can show some bat control and provide quality at-bats to move runners. His defensive ability is the real tool, and he gained confidence late in the year after letting his offense bleed over into his receiving during the middle of the year. Fortes will give him competition and rest, and I expect a solid offensive season from the sophomore.
Grae Kessinger: Kessinger hit .175 in 2016 while starting 53 games at shortstop. He suffered a Jones fracture on the opening day of the SEC Tournament but has been fully healed since late summer. Kessinger struck out only 30 times in 154 at-bats which is a good and bad thing. The BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .202 suggests he was incredibly unlucky, and I do think that's true. However, many of the balls in play were routine plays in the infield, as Kessinger seemed to swing defensively and lost some confidence in trying to drive the baseball. Experience and a better understanding of what to do offensively should increase his numbers. Strikeouts may go up a bit but so should run production.
Tim Rowe: I mentioned earlier that junior college transfers sometimes take a year to acclimate to the Division I level. Rowe was solid in his first year in Oxford but should be better as a senior. Primarily a pull hitter last season, he showed some up the middle and other way ability during the fall, and Ole Miss should be able to put him in advantageous situations if the rest of the lineup improves around him. He had 13 extra base hits (10 doubles) in 126 at-bats last year and can show true gap power with the occasional home run. The 32-6 strikeout-walk ratio needs to be better, but that's typically one of the stats that will see better days in the second year.
If I could have one player's statistics in an effort to predict the season, I'd choose Dillard. The pop is undeniable, but he has to be better with contact rate, as he struck out in more than one-third of his at-bats, and finished the season 2-for-22. He did walk 25 times and runs well if he puts it in play or gets on base. He hit well in the fall and is penciled in at left field, so the Rebels expect a significant jump in 2018.