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Published Feb 20, 2021
What can Ole Miss expect from TCU starter Johnny Ray?
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Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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Ole Miss won’t tiptoe into the season in Arlington, Texas, as the Rebels face three top-10 teams in as many days, beginning with No. 10 TCU at 3 p.m.

No. 3 Texas Tech awaits the Rebels on Sunday, and Ole Miss closes the weekend with No. 9 Texas on Monday. Those times are 3 p.m. and 2:30 p.m., respectively.

Ole Miss draws TCU ace Johnny Ray later today, a third-year physical right-hander who had a 2.53 ERA with 21 strikeouts and eight walks in 21.1 innings in 2020.

Ray originally committed to LSU out of Quincy, Illinois, but signed with Illinois State after hurting his shoulder during a basketball game and not pitching his junior year of high school. Ray didn’t pitch for the Redbirds his one year on campus before he transferred to John Logan College because of a coaching change at Illinois State. Injuries limited him to only eight innings at the junior college.

Injuries and the pandemic have kept Ray from pitching a full season for the last four years, but he was talented enough to be Perfect Game’s No. 6 JUCO draft prospect in 2019 and earn the Friday night starter role for TCU last season.

Those four starts were highlighted by a 2-hit complete game against Minnesota, when he retired 21 straight to start the game. In his one loss, USC got to him for two runs on six hits in 2.2 innings. His velocity was down in that start, and TCU coaches pulled him after 40 pitches.

Ray (6-foot-2, 220 pounds) has a four-pitch mix that isn’t refined, but they are all power offerings that stay in the vicinity of the strike zone and rely on some chase from hitters. He uses his secondary pitches more than expected when looking at his overall profile. Or at least he did against USC, the one full start I saw.

When he’s at his best, it’s not command, but he gets everything around the plate.

The fastball should start the game in the mid 90s with some upper 90s potential and could settle in around 91-93 as the game progresses. He also has confidence in an 89-90 MPH cutter that was an emphasis in the fall.

There’s a hard curve ball and a changeup that both run in the high 70s with the curve maxing around 80 MPH. The curve has enough depth, and the changeup has downward action. They are real pitches, and not just get-over options, but his success depends on the fastball and the cutter.

For Ole Miss fans, Ray somewhat compares to Lance Lynn in college, as far as everything is hard and all-over-the-place in a good way. Lynn had better arm action and overall pitchability, but there are similarities with the way they attack hitters.

Ray’s stuff is big and loud, which can be tough on an inexperienced lineup. In the past he’s shown he will get in bad counts, and that’s a key for Ole Miss today. The Rebels, a fastball-hitting lineup, can make him predictable if they don’t get overeager out of the zone early in at-bats. But if you let him extend and mix in the off-speed pitches early in counts to get ahead, it’s a problem.

It’s a big test for the Rebels, who only have three starters who have faced an SEC pitcher. Most performed well against Louisville and East Carolina last season, so it’s not completely unfamiliar, but Ray is a good opening act for what’s coming in league play.

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