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Published Apr 18, 2022
What's the path for Ole Miss to make the NCAA Tournament?
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Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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OXFORD | Saturday’s walk-off loss to South Carolina that gave the Gamecocks the series added one more level to the climb the Rebels face the rest of the way.

Ole Miss is 21-14 overall and 5-10 in the SEC at the halfway point of league play. It’s the Rebels’ worst SEC record after 15 games in the Mike Bianco era.

With five series remaining, Ole Miss has work to do to make the postseason, a precipitous fall from being ranked No. 1 nationally less than a full month ago.

"It's been tough,” Mike Bianco said on Saturday after the loss to South Carolina. “It's been tough to be really consistent on the mound, in the field and at the plate. When we are, we can be pretty good. We just haven't been able to do that consistently.”

Bigger questions around the program obviously loom, but these next five weekends plus the SEC Tournament decide the timing and tone of those conversations. There’s a roadmap to extending play into June, but the Rebels have a lot of resume work to do with both win-loss and the computers.

To have a chance at an NCAA Tournament at-large bid, Ole Miss needs to be at least 13-17 in the SEC and potentially 14-16 when the regular season ends. The Rebels also likely need an RPI in the top 40 to have any chance with an under .500 conference record.

Since 2013, no team in the SEC with at least 13 conference wins and an RPI in the top 30 has been left out, but two teams (2019 Missouri and 2018 Kentucky) at 13 wins were left out with the No. 31 RPI. Ole Miss in 2017 was left out at 13-17 with the No. 34 RPI.

Obviously each year is different, but the worst at-large resume out of the SEC to make the NCAAs in that timespan was Alabama last season. The Tide went 12-17 in the SEC, 2-2 in Hoover and made it with the No. 36 RPI.

Since at least 2008, no 14-win regular season SEC team has been left out of regional play with a top-45 RPI. Texas A&M, with a No. 42 RPI in 2014, is the only exception outside of the top 40 in that category. The Aggies that season went 10-10 against the top 25.

It’s a topic for a later time, if relevant, but while the SEC Tournament isn’t seen by the committee the same as the regular season, as far as win value per game, it’s also important to not lose on that Tuesday in Hoover.

Ole Miss has an RPI issue, in addition to the league record that currently wouldn’t qualify for the SEC Tournament. The Rebels are No. 55 in RPI with a 2-8 quadrant one record and 5-11 record against quads one and two. Ole Miss is 0-4 against the top 25 but has two wins over No. 27 Auburn.

Ole Miss’ remaining series are against at Arkansas (19), Missouri (29), at LSU (33), Texas A&M (36) and four games against Mississippi State (6-9). The selection committee includes the Governor’s Cup in conference record.

Nonconference matchups remaining are Southeast Missouri (58), at Southern Miss (13) and at Arkansas State (230).

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