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Published Nov 22, 2018
Neal's Picks, Week 13, presented by Clark Chevrolet GMC Buick Cadillac
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Neal McCready  •  RebelGrove
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THE GREEN -- Happy Thanksgiving.

Today, I'm thankful this season of Neal's Picks is almost over.

Except it's not.

It's not, is it? We've still got Championship Week, the bowl season, the NFL Playoffs, the Super Bowl and God only knows what else mixed in over the next two months.

Pour me an eggnog, sans the egg. And give me all the ibuprofen.

This week, it's rivalry week, when all of the hate flows so freely, making people like me, often the subject of hate, smile with satisfaction. Everyone is miserable, and that's a good thing.

So eat your turkey and stuffing (or dressing, or whatever you call it) and let it mix with that hate-induced bile in the pit of your stomach and enjoy hoping for the thrill of victory while bracing for the agony of defeat.

In all seriousness, thanks to all of you for allowing us to make a living writing about people playing sportsball. We literally feed our families by writing and talking about things that have zero influence on real-life issues. We know we should be thankful, and I can assure you we are.

On to the picks...

Last week:

Jeffrey Wright: 11-0 overall, 5-3 ATS

Neal McCready: 10-1 overall, 3-5 ATS

Chase Parham: 11-0 overall, 5-3 ATS

Barrett Clark: 11-0 overall, 5-3 ATS

Corey Clark: 10-1 overall, 3-5 ATS

Overall season record:

Jeffrey Wright: 93-24 overall, 55-46 ATS

Neal McCready: 94-23 overall, 51-50 ATS

Chase Parham: 96-21 overall, 64-37 ATS

Barrett Clark: 101-16 overall, 58-43 ATS

Corey Clark: 94-23 overall, 46-55 ATS


All times Central Standard Time

Thursday's game:

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No. 22 Mississippi State (-10.5) at Ole Miss, 6:30 p.m., ESPN:

Jeffrey Wright: I think this matchup is one of the worst for Ole Miss this year. During conference play, Mississippi State’s defense has been a top-20 defense in every metric that matters for Ole Miss: air yards per attempt, pressure percentage, completions of 10 yards or more, first downs per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, explosive plays in the passing game, etc. Further, Ole Miss has only held two opponents under five yards per carry during conference play, and one of those was Alabama, who rushed for 8.5 yards per carry during the first half. Therefore, I don’t believe that Ole Miss will be able to stop the run, and I don’t think they will score very much. I understand the emotion that comes with this rivalry, but I don’t believe that effort has been the Rebels problem this year. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Mississippi State 38, Ole Miss 17

Neal McCready: Ah, the battle of two teams whose fan bases hate me almost equally. Corey Clark asked me the other day which set of fans despised me the most. I think it's Mississippi State, but it's fairly close. Unfortunately, I don't think the game will be. This is a terrible matchup for the Rebels. It's just awful. The Rebels' only chance is to stay ahead and keep the Mississippi State pass rush honest. If Ole Miss falls behind and is forced to scrap the running game, it could get really ugly in Oxford. Neal's Pick: Mississippi State 38, Ole Miss 20

Chase Parham: Ole Miss is 0-7 in the SEC against the spread which is a fairly remarkable stat, considering Vegas doesn't make a habit of causing trends like that. Team typically cover as the year goes on and Vegas adjusts the line to the level of play. But the Rebels have relatively underachieved compared to line expectations in every Power Five game since the season opening win against Tech. I said I would ride it until proven otherwise, and we're at the end with the streak intact. Parham's Pick MSU 41, Ole Miss 30

Barrett Clark: We will look back at this season as the biggest waste of offensive talent that we've ever had. Only hope in this one is the defense showing up and having the best game of the season. Looking at my pick I don't think this will happen. Barrett's Pick: State College 38 Ole Miss 13

Corey Clark: I'm so ready for this season to be over. "On November 23rd Ole Miss a normal football program." Repeat. Repeat. Repeat. I think my card would be revoked and the secret handshake would be changed if I didn't do this. Corey's Pick: Ole Miss 35, State 31

Friday's game:

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Arkansas (+20.5) at Missouri, 1:30 p.m., CBS:

Jeffrey Wright: Arkansas can’t stop the run or the pass, and Missouri is in the top 4 of SEC defenses in quarterback pressure percentage and yards per rush. Missouri is really a couple of flukes away from being 10-2 while Arkansas has been beaten by five touchdowns in each of its true road games in SEC play. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Missouri 45, Arkansas 17

Neal McCready: Why did Chad Morris suspend two defensive players for trying to get cell numbers from the Mississippi State dance team? Hell, the offense can't score. The defense might as well try to pick up the slack. Neal's Pick: Missouri 48, Arkansas 13

Chase Parham: Arkansas is a terrible football team, but Chad Morris is recruiting reasonably well. That Ole Miss home opener next season is going to be quite the swing game. Later in the year the Rebels head to Mizzou, as the Tigers have to cope with the Drew Lock era being over. Lock goes out in style Friday, but it's reasonably close. Parham's Pick: Mizzou 44, Arkansas 27

Barrett Clark: Mizzou should cover at home against the Razorbacks. Barrett's Pick: Mizzou 31 Arkansas 10

Corey Clark: Arkansas is done. DONE. Corey's Pick: Mizzou 49, Arkansas 14

Saturday's games:

No. 13 Florida (-4.5) at Florida State, 11 a.m., ABC:

Jeffrey Wright: This game feels like an overreaction to an overreaction to Florida State’s win last week against Boston College, and Florida is 2-0 against the spread this season as a road favorite. Give me the better team against a noon crowd on the road. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Florida 23, Florida State 13

Neal McCready: Dan Mullen typically holds his own in these rivalry things. Florida State got a nice win last week, but one showing in Chestnut Hill doesn't erase the myriad of issues that have thwarted the Seminoles this season. Florida is the better team. Oh, and Tallahassee is a sneaky horrible town. So is Gainesville, but still. Have I ever told you how much I hate the state of Florida? It's hot. The mosquitoes are the size of airplanes and every store feels like a Wal-Mart in rural Alabama. Neal's Pick: Florida 24, Florida State 17

Chase Parham: Florida is the better football team, and Dan Mullen won't allow a letdown here. Florida State isn't good, and we shouldn't let Boston College take our eyes off that. Parham's Pick: Florida 27, Florida State 16

Barrett Clark: Florida "should" cover against the Seminoles in Tallahassee. Barrett's Pick: Florida 23 Florida State 17

Corey Clark: These are the games that would scare me if I were a Florida fan familiar with Dan's record in these type games. But, I don't think this "last game of the year" has one of Dan's eyes on the game and the other on the job market. Corey's Pick: Florida, 30 FSU 21

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Georgia Tech (+17) at No. 6 Georgia, 11 a.m., SEC Network:

Jeffrey Wright: Georgia Tech has averaged 33 points per game, and Georgia has just been average against the run this year, and they’ve been very poor at generating negative plays in the rushing game. I’ll take the points and hate myself. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Georgia 38, Georgia Tech 24

Neal McCready: They call this game Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate. Can you believe that? Georgia has the audacity to use the word "clean?" Neal's Pick: Georgia 37, Georgia Tech 23

Chase Parham: Georgia Tech has won four in a row and six of seven. Georgia has a much bigger game next week, so all attention won't be on the option. That's enough for the Jackets to sneak inside the line in Athens. Parham's Pick: Georgia 38, Georgia Tech 24

Barrett Clark: Georgia will win but do they cover? I don't think so. Ground and pound game all day long. Barrett's Pick: Georgia 31 Georgia Tech 18

Corey Clark: Georgia Tech covers simply because they eat the clock. Corey's Pick: UGA 27, GT 13

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Auburn (+24.5) at No. 1 Alabama, 2:30 p.m., CBS:

Jeffrey Wright: I will bet this game every way imaginable. First quarter, lay them. First half, lay them, Game, lay them. Alabama’s first half against The Citadel only strengthened my resolve. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Alabama 45, Auburn 13

Neal McCready: Pro tip: Never say this game doesn't resonate on the national stage, even when it doesn't. You might lose your radio gig, especially if, hypothetically, the owner of the station is a wanna-be booster trying to help one of the programs in question by providing benefits and some of the advertisers are also boosters who are very much trying to influence college football recruiting. Hypothetically. Neal's Pick: Alabama 49, Auburn 12

Chase Parham: Nick Saban last week did his annual attempt at making us think the Tide is worse than they are. The sleepwalking against The Citadel was cute and all, but it's not a deterrent in this one. Auburn has plenty of flaws, and Alabama will expose every one of them. Parham's Pick: Alabama 48, Auburn 17

Barrett Clark: Auburn has a really good defense but does the offense even score against Bama? Probably not. Tiger defense keeps it from getting out of hand. Barrett's Pick: Alabama 21 Auburn 0

Corey Clark: The natives shall remain restless on the Plains. Corey's Pick: Bama 49, Auburn 14

Tennessee (+3.5) at Vanderbilt, 3 p.m., SEC Network:

Jeffrey Wright: I saw a very uninspired team in Nashville last Saturday night. Had Ole Miss punched the ball in the end zone early in the first half, Vanderbilt looked ready to quit. Add in the rumors that Derek Mason would like out at Vanderbilt, and the fact that Pruitt has done a good job at motivating this team, and I think I’ll take the road dogs. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Tennessee 24, Vanderbilt 21

Neal McCready: The loser of this game gets to end this miserable season. The winner is forced to pretend that it enjoys 15 extra practices and an exciting trip to cold, damn Memphis in late December. Neal's Pick: Tennessee 27, Vanderbilt 23

Chase Parham: Jeremy Pruitt has done a nice job in Knoxville this season. Derek Mason has been much of the same, though the Commodores have shown well in several of the losses. I expect another close one, and Tennessee has more athletes and more motivation. Parham's Pick: Tennessee 20, Vanderbilt 17

Barrett Clark: I'd rather see Vandy in a bowl and based on what I've seen on the Internet the SEC does too. Barrett's Pick: Vandy 21 Tennessee 20

Corey Clark: What if I told you.....the winner of this game goes to a bowl? Corey's Pick: Vandy 21, UTK 20

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No. 17 Kentucky (-17.5) at Louisville, 6 p.m., ESPN2:

Jeffrey Wright: I will take the team that can run the ball against a team that can’t stop the run nor cares. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Kentucky 38, Louisville 14

Neal McCready: Congratulations to Kentucky. It wasn't the season it could have been, but 9-3 will always be celebrated in Lexington. And yes, they'll be 9-3. Neal's Pick: Kentucky 31, Louisville 10

Chase Parham: Louisville is abysmal and just wants it over. Kentucky needs to finish on a positive note after a second half of what-might-have-been. Mr Snell should have a big night in his likely college finale. Parham's Pick: Kentucky 40, Louisville 17

Barrett Clark: Feel good about Kentucky winning but not covering. Barrett's Pick: Kentucky 28 Louisville 13

Corey Clark: Talk about a coaching search storyline reversal. Corey's Pick: UK 28, Louisville 14

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South Carolina (+24.5) at No. 2 Clemson, 6 p.m., ESPN:

Jeffrey Wright: This line is so big and confusing that I have to take it. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Clemson 45, South Carolina 14

Neal McCready: I hate this game because I don't hate either school or either team. In fact, I really like Dabo Swinney, who seems to be an absolutely super guy. A good friend of mine spent time with Swinney and his family this summer in Clemson and came away wowed by his sincerity and genuine personality. Meanwhile, you all know how much I like my guy Boom. Love and admiration are so boring. Neal's Pick: Clemson 48, South Carolina 17

Chase Parham: Clemson's defensive line will cause fits for Carolina and Jake Bentley. That's the duh take of the day, but that's also the reason the Tigers cover this oddly large line. If Carolina can't score, then it can't cover. Parham's Pick: Clemson 34, Carolina 9

Barrett Clark: Clemson takes care of business and Dabo trolls the Gamecocks for another year. Barrett's Pick: Clemson 42 USC 17

Corey Clark: That seems large. That's what she said. Corey's Pick: Clemson 35, USCar 14

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No. 9 LSU (+2.5) at Texas A&M, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network:

Jeffrey Wright: I get Jimbo Fisher at home in a revenge game. Let’s ride. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Texas A&M 27, LSU 20

Neal McCready: Dear coaches, Watch the video above. It's OK to have a personality. It's OK to be self-effacing, to let people have a glimpse of what you're all about as a human being. It's OK to smile, to laugh, to show emotion. It's OK. Don't be a robot. It's just football. Life goes on. The earth keeps spinning on its axis. We move from Thanksgiving to Christmas to New Year's. Your jobs don't really impact anything and you're all getting filthy rich. Man, I hate praising Ed Orgeron, but I've done it a lot this season. I was wrong about you, Ed. You've done well, or as you would say it, you done good. Neal's Pick: Texas A&M 24, LSU 21

Chase Parham: Kellen Mond isn't good. LSU's defensive is pretty solid, especially in the secondary. I've thought the Aggies were more name than substance this season, and I'll ride that out one more time. Parham's Pick: LSU 23, TAMU 20

Barrett Clark: LSU wins over the Aggies. Barrett's Pick: LSU 28 Texas A&M 27

Corey Clark: Not today, Jimbo. Not with a NY6 bowl game on the line. Corey's Pick: LSU 24, aTm 21

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