11/2/2018 football Edit

Neal's Picks, Week 9, presented by Larry Clark Chevrolet GMC Buick Cadillac

Behold! All the new growth! There's more every week! It's beautiful!

Neal McCready • RebelGrove

Publisher

THE GREEN -- Another week without interns, another week of domination.

Missouri's choke job cost me a 6-1 week and another weekly title, but it's fast becoming obvious I'm getting Chase Parham and Jeffrey Wright frazzled.

Both Parham and Wright are whining about having to break down a Big 10 game or two. Parham is making worried cracks about Idaho high school games and Wright, who does nothing but watch football, is complaining about having to pick a Pac-12 contest. It's clear I've got the boys on the run.

I'll give credit to Barrett Clark, who has consistently been close to the lead and now shares the top spot with Parham. Barrett doesn't know me well enough to fully appreciate my psychological sabotage of Parham this week, but he might be quite happy with me by Sunday evening.

Anyway, it's a full slate of games this week, as I try to maintain momentum and continue my climb from worst to first.

On to the picks...

Last week:

Jeffrey Wright: 3-4 overall, 3-4 ATS

Neal McCready: 6-1 overall, 5-2 ATS

Chase Parham: 5-2 overall, 4-3 ATS

Barrett Clark: 6-1 overall, 6-1 ATS

Corey Clark: 4-3 overall, 2-5 ATS

Overall records:

Jeffrey Wright: 65-15 overall, 36-31 ATS

Neal McCready: 65-15 overall, 35-32 ATS

Chase Parham: 67-13 overall, 41-26 ATS

Barrett Clark: 69-11 overall, 41-26 ATS

Corey Clark: 68-12 overall, 32-35 ATS

All times listed Central Daylight Time.

Saturday's games:

Boom is coming to town! Dear Boom, please consider this an official invitation to hang out with us at the Neal's Picks Palatial Grounds before and after the podcast. There will be all the tequila you could want. (USA Today)

South Carolina (-1) at Ole Miss, 11 a.m., SEC Network:

Jeffrey Wright: Ole Miss has won every game that they’ve been the favorite (closed as the favorite against Tech) and lost every game that they’ve been the underdog. South Carolina will run right at Ole Miss and won’t try to get cute while Ole Miss offense has yet to score more than 16 points in a conference game against any opponent not named Arkansas. Jeffrey Wright’s Pick: South Carolina 31, Ole Miss 20

Neal McCready: I'm not sure how this line is where it is. I know there are advanced analytics at play and Ole Miss is the rested team and South Carolina's offensive line is banged up. I get all of that. It's just that Ole Miss hasn't played well against a good team since Sept. 1 and South Carolina has found ways to win games. I just don't see it. Neal's Pick: South Carolina 34, Ole Miss 30

Chase Parham: As I detailed earlier in the week, South Carolina does a really good job in the middle of the field if it can run the football at all. Well, Ole Miss won't completely shut down the run, so the Rebels are susceptible to that plan. Also, while the Rebels are a good red zone defense, every drive ends up there, putting too much pressure on the offense against decent defenses. Parham's Pick: South Carolina 37, Ole Miss 34

Barrett Clark: Prove me wrong Rebels. Barrett's Pick: South Carolina 38 Ole Miss 28

Corey Clark: I really suck at this. I might need to “stick to something you can control. Like selling used cars in downtown Charlotte (read: Amory)” Big John to Randy Quaid’s character in the 1990 epic film Days of Thunder. So, I’m going George Costanza: “If every instinct you have is wrong, then, the opposite would have to be right.” At first glance I think USCar wins by 2 touchdowns something like 42-28. Corey’s pick: Ole Miss 42 South Carolina 28

Is this the end of Gus? Is this man going to get $20-plus million to walk away from Auburn and do bad TV with Houston Nutt? Inquiring minds... (Jay G. Tate/AuburnSports.com)

No. 25 Texas A&M (+5.5) at Auburn, 11 a.m., ESPN:

Jeffrey Wright: Auburn didn’t inspire confidence with their performance in Oxford, and Gus apparently isn’t changing. Ole Miss was able to move the ball against the Tigers but doesn’t have a good enough red zone offensive scheme to put the ball in the end zone. Jimbo will have a better plan, and I think he will put the nail in Gus Malzahn’s coaching coffin at Auburn.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Texas A&M 23, Auburn 20

Neal McCready: As much as Auburn people are cheering for Gus Malzahn to stumble and make Allen Greene's decision easier, I think we saw last week in Starkville that Jimbo Fisher doesn't quite have the horses yet to do damage on the road in the SEC West. Neal's Pick: Auburn 23, Texas A&M 17

Chase Parham: I'll take the points. Auburn didn't solve all of its issues with a win at Ole Miss and a bye week. Bye weeks make things worse when there's all types of issues. Parham's Pick: Texas A&M 27, Auburn 24

Barrett Clark: Going on the Road for the W in the West is hard. I'm liking the Aggies in this one. Barrett's Pick: Texas A&M 24 Auburn 23

Corey Clark: This one seems like Auburn would win a close one, but A&M would cover. There’s no way to opposite that. I can’t say aTm wins and Auburn covers. Since we care about the money..... Corey’s pick: Auburn 21 aTm 14

This is the face of Cinderella at 11:59 p.m. That killed some fantasies, didn't it? Don't look to me for sympathy. I get hit on by a ghost and she's at least 80. We all have our problems. (Jeff Drummond/Cats Illustrated)

No. 6 Georgia (-9.5) at No. 11 Kentucky, 2:30 p.m., CBS:

Jeffrey Wright: Kentucky’s defense is for real, and they have a good enough front to cause problems for Georgia. I still don’t believe in Jake Fromm. I’ll take the home dog and the points.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Georgia 24, Kentucky 17

Neal McCready: That chime sound you hear is the clock striking 12 on Cinderella. Kentucky's offense can't score, and while the 'Cats are solid on defense, Georgia may have found some identity last weekend in Jacksonville. Neal's Pick: Georgia 27, Kentucky 14

Chase Parham: Night night, Wildcats. Kentucky's offense is simply too much of a liability. Georgia, meanwhile, has a bit of a spring in its step. I think it's one of those maulings where the score doesn't accurately depict the carnage. Parham's Pick: Georgia 30, Kentucky 9

Barrett Clark: Ground and Pound match up with Georgia coming out on top. Kentucky covers. Barrett's Pick: Georgia 27 Kentucky 18

Corey Clark: Feels like Georgia blows Kentucky out. Corey’s Pick UGa 31 UK 27

Kirk Ferentz is older than the ghost who straddled me last week. He's been at Iowa, what, 70 years? (USA Today Sports)

No. 19 Iowa (+3) at Purdue, 2:30 p.m., ESPN2:

Jeffrey Wright: I simply think the wrong team is favored though I’m willing to accept that Tyler Trent is worth three points. Iowa has been the more consistent team this year while Purdue has been extremely hot and cold, a hallmark of a team that throws it a ton and has an average quarterback. I’ll take the team that I can trust.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Iowa 24, Purdue 20

Neal McCready: For no real reason, I'm an Iowa fan. However, these days we're all Purdue fans. The Boilermakers are much better at home than on the road, so #BoilerUp. Neal's Pick: Purdue 27, Iowa 23

Chase Parham: I'll take Iowa and the points. Purdue is so schizophrenic that its unreliable. And let's not act like West Lafayette is some place opponents can't win. Jeff Brohm is good, but it's still Purdue. Parham's Pick: Iowa 24, Purdue 20

Barrett Clark: Purdue covers at home against Iowa. Barrett's Pick: Purdue 28 Iowa 24

Corey Clark: How the hell do you “opposite” something you have no opinion on? I just flipped a coin. Iowa covers “Heads.” Purdue covers “Tails.” Tails. Corey’s pick: Iowa 24 Purdue 21

"So Neal saw the ghost. Then he said to her, 'Hey Ghost, you are messing with the wrong person." Then he reached up at the ghost's throat, just like this, and poof! She disappeared. -- Texas coach Tom Herman (Texas Longhorns)

No. 12 West Virginia (+2) at No. 15 Texas, 2:30 p.m., FOX:

Jeffrey Wright: This game is the classic Big XII eats its own game. Texas lost last week at Oklahoma State against a very similar offense, and has this weird ability only to win big games as an underdog under Tom Herman. I think Texas will get after Grier enough and will win the proverbial “back against the wall game”. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Texas 31, West Virginia 24

Neal McCready: Texas is much better at home than West Virginia is on the road. This could be a very entertaining game. Neal's Pick: Texas 31, West Virginia 27

Chase Parham: Give me the better quarterback and the coach I'd much rather have a beer with. Also, it's just more fun rooting against Texas. Parham's Pick: West Virginia 44, Texas 38

Barrett Clark: I still can't figure out how West Virginia ended up in the Big 12. Barrett's Pick: Texas 31 West Virginia 28

Corey Clark: See above. Texas heads WV tails. Heads. Corey’s pick: West Virginia 49 Texas 42

Dammit, Barry Odom, I was well on my way to a 6-1 week before your team wet the bed Saturday. I say nice things about you and what do I get in return? Nothing. I get nothing. Just a loss and an elderly ghost telling me to relax. It'd be easier to relax if you'd get a first down once in a while. (USA Today Sports Images)

Missouri (+6) at No. 13 Florida, 3 p.m., SEC Network:

Jeffrey Wright: I think Missouri is done, and I can’t bear the thought of betting against Dan Mullen when he’s playing an unranked team at home.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Florida 28, Missouri 17

Neal McCready: This one's easy. There's no way Missouri is bouncing back from last week's devastating loss. No way. Neal's Pick: Florida 27, Missouri 20

Chase Parham: Florida has a good enough defense to rattle Drew Lock, and the once-hyped quarterback has been abysmal against good teams. Also, Mizzou doesn't exactly have a quality recent history against ranked opponents. Parham's Pick: Florida 27, Mizzou 16

Barrett Clark: Gators out physical Mizzou at home and get the W. Barrett's Pick: Florida 31 Missouri 24

Corey Clark: Lock has been awful against good defenses. Florida has a pretty good defense. They hold Mizzou down. Corey’s pick: Mizzou 24 Florida 21

I hate to admit it, but Mister Jeremy Pruitt has the Volunteers looking almost competent.

UNC-Charlotte (+21) at Tennessee, 3 p.m., SEC Network Alternate Channel:

Jeffrey Wright: Tennessee is the better team, they’re playing at home, and they need to build some momentum. I’ll take the Vols.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Tennessee 38, UNC-Charlotte 14

Neal McCready: I want to make fun of Mr. Jeremy Pruitt, but I actually believe he's doing a solid job. Neal's Pick: Tennessee 45, UNC-Charlotte 13

Chase Parham: Jeremy Pruitt has improved this team, as much as it pains me to say it, and upon further reflection I think the Vols get a blowout here. But I picked Charlotte on the live show, and I'm obligated to go with my first guess. Parham's Pick: Tennessee 24, Charlotte 6

Barrett Clark: Tennessee, like Ole Miss, takes out it's frustrations on inferior opponents. Barrett's Pick: Tennessee 31 UNC-Charlotte 9

Corey Clark: Tennessee is getting better, y’all. Corey’s pick: UTK 35 UNC-C 28

Let's be real here: We're all Northwestern fans this weekend, right? No one wants to watch Notre Dame in a playoff game. (Bill Panzica)

No. 3 Notre Dame (-8) at Northwestern, 6:15 p.m., ESPN:

Jeffrey Wright: I just think this line is a reflection of what Northwestern did to a team wearing Wisconsin’s jerseys last week, but don’t let that game fool you. If you watched that game, Northwestern was anything but impressive, and more importantly, you can’t take anything from beating Wisconsin this year. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Notre Dame 31, Northwestern 21

Neal McCready: I expect the Wildcats to be more than ready to play on Saturday night. Is Notre Dame really a top-four team? For some reason, I have my doubts. Neal's Pick: Notre Dame 27, Northwestern 23

Chase Parham: Vanderbilt hung with Notre Dame in South Bend, and I think Northwestern is a little more complete Vanderbilt. Let's ride with the Wildcats at home and pick chaos. Parham's Pick: Northwestern 20, Notre Dame 17

Barrett Clark: Northwestern is tough this year and hurt me last week. I still think the Irish win but will not cover. Barrett's Pick: Notre Dame 28 Northwestern 21

Corey Clark: A school with similar academic standards went to South Bend earlier this year and should’ve won. This one is on the road at one of them smart folks schools. Corey’s pick: Notre Dame 27 Northwestern 10

Nick Fitzgerald will be in Oxford in three weeks. Those stories, just so you know, leading up to the Egg Bowl about his redemption and such are going to be nauseating. Prepare yourselves. (USA Today)

Louisiana Tech (+21) at No. 21 Mississippi State, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network:

Jeffrey Wright: Keep it simple. Mississippi State’s offense can score against non-conference opponents. Tech is going to be a trendy pick, but MSU runs for 311.7 yards per game against non-conference opponents. They average 50 points per game in those contests too.Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Mississippi State 49, Louisiana Tech 17

Neal McCready: I had an awesome time in Ruston last weekend. I have so many ties to Louisiana Tech, and it's a special place to me. Mississippi State just collected a big win over Texas A&M and has a big trip to Tuscaloosa upcoming. This has letdown/sandwich game written all over it. Neal's Pick: Mississippi State 35, Louisiana Tech 17

Chase Parham: State has confused me all season. I've struggled with reading the Bulldogs, and I'm back in that difficult place again. The game won't be in doubt, but the line is just big enough to make me pause. Nick Fitzgerald was much better last week. I'll hope for a regression to the norm. Parham's Pick: MSU 31, Louisiana Tech 14

Barrett Clark: State's Heisman Candidate, and sign language tutor, runs for 150 and gets 3 rushing scores. La Tech can't stop the Bulldogs rushing attack. Barrett's Pick: State College 31 Louisiana Tech 13

Corey Clark: State seems to be finding itself just in time for the Egg Bowl. They are going to murder La Tech. Corey’s pick: MSU 38 La Tech 28

LSU has been a great story. That story ends Saturday night. (AP)

No. 1 Alabama (-14) at No. 4 LSU, 7 p.m., CBS:

Jeffrey Wright: I’m betting this game in the first half, I will bet this game in the second half, and I’m betting it again right now. Alabama can score on anyone. Alabama is the best team in the country, and the gap between them and the next class of the SEC will be on full display. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Alabama 41, LSU 17

Neal McCready: Lay 'em. This isn't complicated. Alabama is putting 35-plus on everyone, and the Crimson Tide kills one-dimensional offenses. This won't be close, hype aside. Neal's Pick: Alabama 41, LSU 17

Chase Parham: As Jeffrey says, do we think Alabama can score 14? Yes? Then lay 'em. LSU won't score enough, and the Tide will be motivated for the first time in weeks. Parham's Pick: Alabama 41, LSU 16

Barrett Clark: I still think the only team that can beat Alabama this year is Alabama. LSU fights all night but can't handle Alabama's offense. That place will be rocking at kickoff. Barrett's Pick: Alabama 28 LSU 13

Corey Clark: Alabama looks so so good. I hate them, but they are really good. Corey’s pick: LSU 21 Bama 20.

Sunday's game:

I'm putting this game in Neal's Picks this week just to troll Parham. He'll be an emotional mess Sunday afternoon, and throwing this game into the picks competition is simply my way of stoking the fire. (USA Today Sports)

Los Angeles Rams (+1) at New Orleans Saints, 3:25 p.m., FOX:

Jeffrey Wright: I’ve watched every game that each team has played this year (Shout out to Dylan and Chase’s mom), and the Rams are the best team in the NFL. The Saints are a very good team, but there’s clearly a gap between them and the Rams. I know the Rams’ secondary is banged up, but the Rams can get more stops than the Saints can get. I think the wrong team is favored. Jeffrey Wright’s pick: Rams 31, Saints 28

Neal McCready: I'm just screwing with Parham here. This is a blatant attempt to steal a game. These two teams are destined to meet each other again in January. Parham won't survive it. Neal's Pick: New Orleans 30, Los Angeles 27

Chase Parham: Neal knew wha he was doing. In my warped mind I could never take the Saints here and he knows that. Rams by about 100. Parham's Pick: Rams 91, Saints 3

Barrett Clark: My wife would murder me if I didn't take the Saints. Barrett's Pick: Saints 31 Rams 28

Corey Clark: Neal has me in my feelings on this one. I’m with Chase from Hatley here. There’s no way that I’m picking the Saints. I’ve been a Saints fan for a long time, and I know that’s not the play. You’ve got to emotionally hedge here. The Rams win by a TD in an ugly game. Corey’s pick: New Orleans 30 LAR 27