The MLB Draft telecast on Sunday showed Gunnar Hoglund’s reaction to the Blue Jays picking him with the 19th overall selection.
Hoglund dropped his head for a second, seemingly taking in the reality before hugging those gathered in the room with him. The third-year right-hander’s college career, noteworthy for many positive reasons, was cheated by several circumstances, leaving a taste of what-might-have-been.
Ole Miss athletics photographer Josh McCoy took a candid of Hoglund the day before the Tucson Super Regional. Hoglund is pensively starting out toward the field, his robotic brace from Tommy John surgery visible and the Pitching Ninja cap adding to the fact that he’s a spectator instead of a participant.
The photo stuck with me and was the final image of his career, a sour reminder of his last two years. That is, until Sunday, and the video of the hugs and celebration. A pandemic and an elbow injury took away Hoglund’s possibilities on the field, but they didn’t take away his future and what he earned as he moves to the next level.
Instead of a more severe fall like LSU’s Jaden Hill, who was a top-five possibility before Tommy John surgery and relatively poor starts sent him to the 44th pick, Hoglund’s stock stayed strong.
The Blue Jays gave Hoglund a deserved reward, and they solidified that he made the right decision when he turned down the Pirates three years ago when Pittsburgh took him with the 36th overall pick and lowballed his signing bonus. The 19th pick’s slot value is $3,359,000.
The Hudson, Florida, native arrived in Oxford with a first-round pick reputation and the eye-popping stat of not walking a batter (and having only six three-ball counts) his entire senior regular season.
But that stat was a misleading one, as Hoglund overpowered high school hitters without the need for precision. As a freshman, he had good weeks and mountains of potential but needed to pitch better, needed to tighten up his secondary offerings and needed to improve mentally in order to limit damage with runners on base.
While incoming teammate Doug Nikhazy burst on to the scene and never faltered, Hoglund’s move from serviceable to dominant took until year two.
When the pandemic canceled the 2020 season, Hoglund was arguably the best pitcher in the country. Through four starts, he had a 1.16 ERA, 37 strikeouts and four walks. But the abrupt end to the year left nothing but questions and no answers as to how it would have played out.
Hoglund led the nation in strikeouts for most of this past season, until his injury, and held opponents to a .178 batting average against. Inconsistent run support and, frankly, poor defense contributed to only a 4-2 record, but Hoglund showed poise and a quality mix. He improved in every needed way from his freshman year and was an obvious elite prospect with his ability and how he handled himself.
My best guess is Hoglund tore his elbow during the South Carolina game, and despite a decrease in velocity, he blanked the Gamecocks and allowed just one hit with nine strikeouts in six innings.
There’s a heavy unfairness to that freshman year super regional in Fayetteville being Holgund’s only postseason start. Relatively quiet and reserved, people around the program credit him for his attitude and buy-in to help his team however he could before and after the injury. That he hurt because of his inability to help in Tucson. He was one of the most visibly upset players following the game three loss.
It was a career of out-of-his-control what-ifs, but Hoglund maximized what he could do, becoming a better pitcher, better competitor and fulfilling his vast potential at the college level.
We were all cheated out of Hoglund getting spotlight starts in the postseason. But he wasn’t cheated out of where he was destined to end up — solidly in the first round after his junior season.
That image of Hoglund in the Arizona dugout is erased and replaced by him hugging loved ones and hearing his name called. After two years of things he didn’t deserve, Hoglund finishes with what he deserved the most.
