#RebsBSB Mailbag: Rebels in dangerous territory through 10 SEC games

Ole Miss fell to Arkansas, 5-2, on Thursday in Fayetteville, moving to 0-2 after a midweek loss to Memphis on Tuesday. Let's dive into some of your questions about the season and the program.

Friday's first pitch is at 6:30 p.m.

Let's just get to it.

I received some variation of this question at least 20 times, and the short answer is I don't know. On the surface, and on paper, the buyout is likely prohibitive, and he's in his second year off a national title and a six-year contract that pays him more than $1.625 million annually.

The other side of it is the games aren't played on paper, and Ole Miss -- currently 18-13 overall and 3-7 in the SEC -- needs to turn it around quickly to avoid a second straight failure. There's frustration that comes with the losses and saying something is impossible before it actually plays out is foolhardy when discussing college athletics. Seemingly safe coaches are less so when the losses actually happen versus are just possible or expected.

As the great philosopher Andy Kennedy once said, "You are what the numbers say you are." Ole Miss, in this snapshot, is 9-31 in its last 40 SEC games and 6-18 in its last 24 SEC home games. The Rebels have been swept in twice as many home series as they've simply won since the beginning of last season.

At the current pace, and they get 20 more games to prove this wrong, Ole Miss would be 29-61 in its last 90 SEC games dating back to the start of 2022.

All these things are true:

1. Mike Bianco built his success on regular season consistency, winning at least 13 SEC games in all 21 seasons prior to last year and winning at least 14 in all but one of those, with the one coming in 2011. The last three years have been the opposite to date, with the 2022 team getting hot late but playing a decent chunk of the SEC season in turmoil. Last season was a snowball of bad, and this season is teetering on a possible encore.

The NIL era is supposed to be a better position for Ole Miss compared to the scholarship era. The 11.7 scholarship hard cap was a real thing, and the Rebels managed it well. Now, even if the NIL money isn't in LSU or Texas A&M range, it's seven figures and top half of the SEC.

2. Roster development has lagged, and the portal/NIL era leans heavily on budgeting and anticipating culture fits. Those two go together because development allows you to need less out of the portal and have more ingrained culture present to help portal guys get on board quickly. Bianco says the toughness isn't there consistently, and I read that as the mental ability to handle adversity. That's something that feeds off itself positively and negatively in a locker room.

There's still a lot of season left, but the ultimate question is why is Ole Miss lagging in an era that should be better for it relative to the entirety of the league? That's Keith Carter's question because the trend is bad. It's also not like Bianco and his staff didn't buy into the portal this year. They did. They just needed so much because of other factors.

3. For years, Bianco's tenure gave ammunition to both sides with the College World Series argument. He won consistently and didn't have a bad season. Those craving consistency said he should be safe forever. He was 1-for-9 in games to get to Omaha before 2022, and people said that was fireable because of the lack of reaching the ultimate goal. I was adept at arguing both sides. It was Groundhog Day.

Now, 2022 is a new version of that. Ole Miss won a national title the fanbase deserved and had a remarkable run that will be a treasured memory for many of you forever. That was the goal, and they accomplished it. His new salary was appropriate for that situation.

Ole Miss was also going to move on from Bianco after the 2022 season had the Rebels not made the postseason, and their entry was by the skin of their teeth and partly because of John Cohen's politicking and a lot because they canceled the Arkansas State game.

In short, something out of the team's control decided whether it would be over in May of that year. Ole Miss made the most of it. Bianco gets credit for that. It's the largest recovery possible, but it also didn't erase everything beforehand as far as where people saw the health of the program as a whole. That was the issue with the length and scope of that new contract.

It's the new Groundhog Day. What to make of that season because both sides are true.

4. Financially, the program is healthy. Season tickets are near record levels, and whatever you think of the upcoming expansion, the seats will be sold. That's traditionally a sign of how to handle a coaching situation, but that doesn't work here in this sport.

Ole Miss fans, especially local to Oxford, love college baseball and like spending their spring days at the park. A lot bought tickets this year because they didn't want to lose their seats or spot in the priority list, not because it was in support of the program's direction.

5. Bianco is three wins from 1,000 overall and 900 at Ole Miss. He told me in a 2019 podcast episode that he wanted to coach around another 10 years. He's not there yet, but after COVID and in this new era did that change? I don't know.

He did a hell of a job for a long time. He created a monster. He was excellent at feeding it. It's starving right now. That's Carter's dilemma if the season stays on this path. The numbers aren't acceptable, but I don't pretend to know what's possible at the administration level -- which brings up separate questions.

The past is the past. This era is all new, and Ole Miss has to find a footing in it. It's not simple, but it's also not a case of just relying on history.

Judd Utermark is the best athlete on the team, and he has real power and is your best defender at multiple positions. Health, consistency and pitch recognition have been issues at times, but the talent is there. It was worth a shot, and I thought defensively he made a difference last night.

Trenton Lyons was 5-for-8 with a .700 on-base percentage heading into the week and reached base twice against Memphis on Tuesday. He earned the opportunity, and it's important to find his true position early in his career. He's an athlete who happens to catch.

There was a critical ball to the backstop in each game he's played, but with that position in a bit of chaos, it makes sense to see how he can do with some innings. He adds some athleticism and doesn't look overwhelmed at the plate.

I think this is the right rotation. I don't like this rotation when discussing how to handle Hagen Smith and a Thursday to Saturday series, but overall I like Riley Maddox, Liam Doyle and TBA in that order. There's no rule you have to announce someone for the third spot. Ole Miss just doesn't TBA as often as most people ini the league.

Maddox can give you some length and rhythm, and Doyle is your best chance at having an advantage on one of the days. The issue is I don't have a good answer on what to do on Sunday.

The Josh Mallitz idea is commonplace, and maybe that's it if he hasn't already pitched, but Bianco had a really good answer about how his slider velocity isn't back up to pre-injury velocity, and that's the No. 1 indicator of his elite success or simply quality results.

The fastball velocity and command are good, and he's better with the changeup, but to max out his potential, the slider has to be at least in the upper to mid 80s.

Beyond Mallitz, Grayson Saunier and Wes Mendes haven't shown enough in recent outings, and JT Quinn is hurt. If he doesn't throw tonight, I'd start Mason Nichols tomorrow and see what happens.

I don't know. The buyout information for all Ole Miss coaches is behind the Foundation which isn't accessible through records requests. If his contract structure follows the same basic situation as others in the past, it's ~$4.5 million after this season.

Again, let me repeat, I don't know, and it may have zero to do with the structure I just calculated that from. But, if I'm right, even in the ballpark, that's so much money for a baseball coach to not work.

Heinz. We overvalue brand name products far too often, but this is one where it's Heinz or just keep it away from me. Now, if you put it on much more than french fries, you have the palate of a child and just want a sugar rush, but there's still a correct answer.

In general, we couldn't tell the difference in most brands with a blind taste test. I feel strongly about that.

Homemade fries with a lot of salt is the GOAT here. I prefer a great onion ring to any fry, but that's the fry of choice. I have nostalgia with the crinkle cut out of the bag, though. I grew up on those and won't turn them down.

The tater tot needs a topping. I want that with cheese or chili or some barbecue concoction. I'll pass on the plain salted tot.

Yes. You won a title. You made memories that will never go away. You justified an era and a fanbase got, in a good way, what it deserved and invested in. It was a coronation for a program that cared and worked toward that moment. Mississippi State would say the same thing. So would LSU if the Tigers don't turn it around.

Ole Miss wouldn't be 3-7 in the SEC if Hunter Elliott and Xavier Rivas were healthy and in the rotation. That's 100 percent true, but injuries happen, and that's just one step down from saying well if all the juniors had come back for their senior seasons.

Rivas was a huge blow. That's the one that you couldn't plan for, and he was the most viable returning starter and had worked really hard all offseason. I think he was going to take a jump in year two. However, injures are everywhere in today's game, and depth has never been more critical.

With Elliott, this was supposed to be his junior year, and he's a crazy case of what might have been. Ole Miss has known, though, that he wouldn't pitch this season since early last season. In the portal era especially, I don't compute that the same as a preseason injury.

The lack of viable SEC innings from Quinn and Saunier to this point as sophomores is the key pitching that has things where they stand.

The move to $2 hot dog nights from $1 hot dog nights is a travesty, as is the limit to how many hot dogs you can order and consume. I'm all for a fan deciding to go Joey Chestnut while Ole Miss and Arkansas State do battle.

I don't think I even noticed the song change. My two in-game suggestions are to go back to one of the old home run songs and to go ahead and scrap the Solo Cups.

The home run song situation is cliche, and while the Cups are now just once per weekend, you have to let Yellow win or something.

The batter's eye was born out of a good thing with the band field and out of bad communication because no one knew it was needed until weeks before last season. A more permanent structure is very much needed.

All of those things, however, wouldn't be topics if the team was 7-3 instead of 3-7.