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Published Apr 21, 2023
Friday Five: Rebels start second half of SEC slate with No. 1 LSU
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Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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Ole Miss starts the back half of its Southeastern Conference season this weekend with LSU. The Rebels and No. 1 Tigers play at 6:30 Friday, 2 p.m. Saturday and 1:30 p.m. Sunday. The Saturday matchup is on ESPN2.

The Rebels are 21-16 overall and 3-12 in the SEC, while LSU is 29-7 overall and 9-5 in the league. The Tigers had a game against South Carolina rained out.

Here are five things for the weekend.

ELLIOTT SET TO START ON SATURDAY

Hunter Elliott makes his return to the mound this weekend.

The Ole Miss ace has been out with a sprained UCL since mid-February but will start on Saturday against the Tigers. Elliott will be on a limited pitch count as he continues to build back up to his pre-injury self.

Elliott threw five innings against Delaware in the season opener, striking out nine and walking one in an 11-2 Ole Miss victory. He felt tightness in his forearm in the days after the start. An MRI revealed the sprain, and multiple doctors diagnosed it as a non-surgical injury.

The sophomore has thrown multiple bullpens to conclude his throwing program, pitching into the low 90s and feeling no issues with his breaking ball.

It could take Elliott several weeks to reach full pitch-count capacity, but his return for any of the 27 weekend innings is needed.

Elliott, in 2022, was 5-3 with a 2.70 ERA in 80 innings. The Freshman All-American struck out 102, walked 34 and went undefeated in the postseason. Elliott allowed four earned runs in 25.1 innings during the NCAA Tournament.

Ole Miss is also close to getting Riley Maddox back on the pitching staff. He had Tommy John surgery in May 2022 and has recovered with any setbacks. Mike Bianco said Maddox could see game action “by the end of the month.”

REBS GET SOME ROTATION FLEXIBILITY 

Elliott’s return, even in a limited role, gives Ole Miss some flexibility with its starting rotation.

The Rebels will start Xavier Rivas on Friday and are TBA on Sunday, with Elliott in the middle.

Rivas has been the best at giving the Rebels manageable length this season. The transfer has pitched at least five innings in five of his last six starts — and was an out away from all six, throwing 4.2 innings against Texas A&M.

Rivas has allowed three or fewer earned runs in five of his previous seven starts, with 51 strikeouts and 24 walks. It’s his first series-opening start with the Rebels. He began the year as the game-three starter and has been pitching on day two recently.

Jack Dougherty becomes the wild card with this plan. Coming off his best start of the season — one earned run in six innings at Mississippi State — the junior may start or be back in the bullpen.

Dougherty has occupied the ace role in Elliott’s absence, but he’s best suited as a multi-inning reliever. This move gives Bianco the flexibility to bring him in if the Rebels have a lead following Rivas or Elliott or start him on Sunday if the game situations don’t call for him the first two days.

Ideally, for Ole Miss, Dougherty would help lock down a victory, and the Rebels would likely go back to JT Quinn, the game-three starter the past four weeks.

Quinn, a freshman, has been solid with three straight starts of at least five innings. He’s yielded three or fewer earned runs in three of the four starts, though Ole Miss has lost all four games.

Dougherty’s potential bullpen move gives that group a much-needed positive. Mitch Murrell was excellent at Mississippi State last weekend and also faced one batter to end the Arkansas State game with the winning run at the plate.

Mason Nichols threw three solid innings in Jonesboro, entering in the sixth frame. That may be something to watch for, as he was effective in that earlier role as a freshman last season.

CREWS, SKENES LEAD LOADED LSU

Baseball America, on March 16, released its first Major League Baseball mock draft. It had LSU’s Dylan Crews at No. 1 overall and the Tigers’ Paul Skenes at No. 3 overall.

If anything, it might look even better for LSU in the next draft the publication releases. Skenes could easily be seen as the second pick behind his teammate.

That’s what Ole Miss faces this weekend with the top-ranked Tigers. Crews, the centerfielder, will be in the lineup all three days, while Air Force transfer Skenes will start the series opener.

Crews is hitting .491 with an .828 slugging percentage and staggering .647 on-base percentage. He’s one of four LSU regulars hitting .340 or better, with NC State transfer Tommy White at .383, Jared Jones at .364 and veteran Gavin Dugas at .340.

Skenes has a 1.69 ERA in 53.1 innings and is putting up video game numbers. He’s struck out 104 of the 199 batters he’s faced this season and walked only line of them.

Opponents are hitting .150 off Skenes, who has thrown more than 100 pitches in four of his last five starts. He’s pitches six-to-seven innings in every start not impacted by weather this season.

The 6-foot-6, 235-pounder pitched in the low to mid 90s at Air Force but is now routinely around 100 MPH with his fastball. Skenes throws his slider in the mid to upper 80s and his changeup around 90 MPH.

LSU is starting right-hander Ty Foyd (3.92 ERA, 40 K, 17 BB) on Saturday and Vanderbilt transfer right-hander Christian Little (3.86 ERA, 32 K, 13 BB) on Sunday.

The Tigers are dealing with pitching injuries of their own. Chase Shores, Garrett Edwards and Nate Ackhausen are all questionable for the weekend. LSU lost weekend starter Grant Taylor to Tommy John prior to the season.

IS THERE A PATH TO THE POSTSEASON?

Ole Miss is 3-12 in the SEC with the No. 1 team in the country coming to town, so postseason optimism isn't currently a thing when it comes to a reasonable path.

Barring a sweep of the Tigers, the Rebels will be behind last season's 18-game SEC pace of 6-12 and in at least a tie for last place in the conference. Is there any good news? Maybe a a little bit.

Ole Miss has to play better (I know you're amazed at that analysis) for any of this to matter, and it will take at least 13 SEC wins to get an at-large NCAA bid. It's possible 14 is the number, but I think there's some benefit of the doubt to the Rebels after last year should that happen, and that would be a 10-5 SEC close with Elliott back.

LSU is a daunting task, but the silver lining is the Tigers haven't swept anyone in conference play. LSU taken two of three four times and split a two-game set with South Carolina when rain took away the third game.

After LSU, Ole Miss' final four opponents are Georgia, Missouri, Auburn and Alabama. Their combined SEC record coming into the weekend was 20-40, with Alabama the best at 6-9. Taking one from LSU would require Ole Miss to average more than two wins a weekend the rest of the way to get to 13 victories. Think three series wins and a sweep.

It's a daunting path, and it'll take improved play more than anything. Frankly, those teams see Ole Miss as an opportunity right now. But considering where things stand, the strength of schedule does at least show a glimpse. That matters if the Rebels can put a dent in LSU's weekend.

SEC AT A GLANCE

SEC EAST

Vanderbilt 13-2

South Carolina 11-4

Florida 11-5

Kentucky 10-5

Missouri 5-10

Tennessee 5-10

Georgia 5-11

SEC WEST

Arkansas 11-5

LSU 9-5

Texas A&M 7-8

Alabama 6-9

Mississippi State 5-10

Auburn 5-10

Ole Miss 3-12

SEC SCHEDULE

Vanderbilt at Tennessee

Arkansas at Georgia - UGA 6, ARK 5

Texas A&M at Kentucky

Florida at South Carolina - USC 13, UF 3

Mississippi State at Auburn

Alabama at Missouri

LSU at Ole Miss

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