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Published Dec 1, 2023
Neal's Picks, presented by Service Specialists: Championship Week
Neal McCready  •  RebelGrove
Publisher

NEAL'S PICKS PALATIAL HEADQUARTERS -- It's Championship Week and we have ourselves a four-man race.

Four of us are separated by just one game. Thank goodness this is a scoreboard business and we're not dependent on committees, style points or some subjective judgment. We don't even have an hour-long waste of oxygen on TV every Tuesday night.

No, we at Neal's Picks fight it out on the proverbial field. Every week counts. The College Football Playoff could learn a thing or two from us.

On to the picks...

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Standings

Last Week:

Neal McCready: 10-1 overall, 4-7 ATS

Chase Parham: 10-1 overall, 6-5 ATS

Jeffrey Wright: 10-1 overall, 3-8 ATS

Brian Rippee: 10-1 overall, 4-7 ATS

Michael Luker: 9-2 overall, 3-8 ATS

For The Season:

Neal McCready: 113-27 overall, 64-63 ATS

Chase Parham: 113-27 overall, 63-64 ATS

Jeffrey Wright: 112-28 overall, 64-63 ATS

Brian Rippee: 109-31 overall, 63-64 ATS

Michael Luker: 113-27 overall, 54-73 ATS

All rankings via Associated Press

All gambling lines via DraftKings

All times listed Central Standard Time

Friday's games

New Mexico State +11 at No. 20 Liberty, Conference USA Championship Game, 6 p.m., CBSSN

Neal McCready: I don't hate this money line at all, but I love the line. Neal's Pick: Liberty 31, New Mexico State 27

Chase Parham: I'm just pulling for New Mexico State here. I have no real reason for it or anything, but it seems like the play here. It's a lot of points. Frankly, I like the money line to give New Mexico State a shot at the win here. Parham's Pick: New Mexico State 27, Liberty 24

Jeffrey Wright: Out of respect for what the fine men of Los (Las?) Cruces did for me and my family on November 18, 2023, I owe them. I also think the can cover here by holding the ball and frustrating Liberty. Pavia was still splitting time when these two teams first met, and he is a much better player now. WRIGHT’S PICK: LIBERTY 31, THE CHILDREN OF GOD 24

Brian Rippee: Jamie Chadwell wouid rather hang out with the Falwell's pool guy than live in Starkville, Mississippi. Do I blame him? No, I do not. Rippee's Pick: Liberty 35, New Mexico State 24

Michael Luker: I guess I'll take the points here. This was a 16 point game earlier in the year, but I have a feeling New Mexico State is playing with a lot more confidence now. Luker’s Pick: Liberty 27 NMSU 20

No. 5 Oregon -9 vs. No. 3 Washington, Pac 12 Conference Championship Game, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, 7 p.m., ABC

Neal McCready: I just think Oregon is playing at an elite level right now. Neal's Pick: Oregon 41, Washington 27

Chase Parham: Chaos is the play. Let's just all root for chaos. Also, how the hell am I still a contender in this competition? Lord, we all suck. Parham's Pick: Oregon 45, Washington 34

Jeffrey Wright: I’m entirely in my head on this game. At first glance, nine points seems like too many points, a fact that leads me to want to take Oregon because it feels like the line is begging you to take Washington. However, I think everyone is thinking that way, and if you combine that thought with the fact that almost every instinct that I have about the PAC-12 is wrong, the wrong side is actually the correct side. Give me the Pups and the points. WRIGHT’S PICK: OREGON 31, WASHINGTON 24

Brian Rippee: This is another classic case of why the current version of the playoff is flawed. Washington beat Oregon, yes, and that is why we play the games. But Oregon has made it clear it is the better football team for most of the last two months. I suppose my point is that I think both of these teams are good and I would like to see both of them play in the postseason. What a novel concept. With that said, the world seems to be on Oregon, which makes me a Huskie. Rippee's Pick: Washington 35, Oregon 30

Michael Luker: Washington has survived close game after close game and I think this weekend it catches up with them. I really love this Oregon team. Luker’s Pick: Oregon 31 Washington 21

Saturday's games

No. 19 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas, Big 12 Conference Championship Game, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas, 11 a.m., ABC

Neal McCready: This is an easy call. The 'Horns are going to go for blood in their final Big 12 contest. Neal's Pick: Texas 47, Oklahoma State 13

Chase Parham: Texas is better. Way better. Mike Gundy did a hell of a job, but at some point just roll with the better team that's still playing for something. Parham's Pick: Texas 34, OSU 13

Jeffrey Wright: A word to the #Haters, go ahead and load up on the Cowboys here because I love the Longhorns here. I think this is a terrible matchup for Oklahoma State because they can only move the ball on the ground, and Texas doesn’t let you move it on the ground. I also think Texas will try to get some style points to make their final case to the committee. WRIGHT’S PICK: TEXAS 38, OKLAHOMA STATE 17

Brian Rippee: I am not sure either of these teams are that good. I will take the points. Rippee's Pick: Texas 31, Oklahoma State 23

Michael Luker: Texas will certainly be looking for some style points this weekend. I'd be extremely pissed off if I was Steve Sarkisian. Luker’s Pick: Texas 38 Oklahoma State 21

Miami (Ohio) +8 vs. No. 23 Toledo, Mid-American Conference Championship Game, Ford Field, Detroit, 11 a.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: Toledo has run roughshod through the MAC. Why should it stop now? Neal's Pick: Toledo 38, Miami 24

Chase Parham: It's more than a touchdown. When you don't know crap about either team, that's the play. This isn't complicated. It's also the MAC. Expecting weird is a viable strategy. Parham's Pick: Miami 30, Toledo 27

Jeffrey Wright: If you want to bet on Jason Candle as a favorite, be my guest, but just know that Toledo is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite. Further, the underdog is 17-6-2 ATS (with 11 outright wins) in the illustrious history of the MAC Championship Game because no one should be favored in the MAC. WRIGHT’S PICK: TOLEDO 24, MIAMI OF OHIO 21

Brian Rippee: The MAC Championship game being played on a Saturday versus a Tuesday just feels wrong. I know nothing about this league or its teams. I will take the ranked one. Rippee's Pick: Toledo 28, Miami 7

Michael Luker: My least favorite professor at Ole Miss went to Miami Ohio. I had an 89.7 in his class and he did not round my grade to a 90. Screw that guy. Rockets by a million. Luker’s Pick: Toledo 38 Miami (Ohio) 20


Boise State -2.5 at UNLV, Mountain West Conference Championship Game, 2 p.m., FOX

Neal McCready: I can't overstate what a great job Barry Odom has done with this UNLV team. Neal's Pick: UNLV 30, Boise State 24

Chase Parham: Barry Odom has done a hell of a job this season, and I'm pulling for him here. I have no reason to like him or dislike him, but I have been on his team all season. Parham's Pick: UNLV 24, Boise 21

Jeffrey Wright: I think the wrong team is favored here. Barry Odom is carrying on Sam Pittman’s legacy of covering as a dog as his team is a perfect 5-0 as an underdog this season, and Boise is 1-4-1 ATS on the road. WRIGHT’S PICK: UNLV 31, BOISE STATE 28

Brian Rippee: UNLV has had a great year and Boise State is looking for a new coach. I like the Runnin’ Rebels here. Rippee’s Pick: UNLV 35, Boise State 31

Michael Luker: UNLV has the home field advantage here so I guess I'll take the points here. I'm not going to pretend to know anything about either team. Luker’s Pick: Boise State 31 UNLV 30


No. 1 Georgia -2.5 vs. No. 8 Alabama, Southeastern Conference Championship Game, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, 3 p.m., CBS

Neal McCready: I'm probably overthinking this, so I'll stop now. Georgia is better. Neal's Pick: Georgia 31, Alabama 24

Chase Parham: It's probably a dumb feeling, but I just have a feeling... Parham's Pick: Alabama 23, Georgia 20

Jeffrey Wright: Since 2008, Alabama has been an underdog in just seven games. They’re 5-2 ATS in those games with five outright wins. Additionally, Alabama has been an underdog three times in the SEC Championship Game and is 2-1 ATS with two outright wins. Therefore, my conclusion is if I’m going to take Alabama, I need to believe that the Tide will win the game, and I do not believe that they will win the game. Go Dawgs, and please let both McConkey and Bowers play the whole game. WRIGHT’S PICK: GEORGIA 35, ALABAMA 24

Brian Rippee: Georgia is the best team in the country and I am not sure it’s close. I think this game will be competitive and Milroe’s mobility will provide enough offense for Alabama to hang around. But I think the Bulldogs eventually wear down the Tide late. Rippee’s Pick: Georgia 31, Alabama 20

Michael Luker: I think Georgia wins this one, but for the sake of chaos, I really want Alabama to win here. I want the committee to have to make some tough decisions. I think that the Georgia defense will cause problems for the Alabama offensive line which in turn will make things tough for Milroe. I just don't like the matchup for Alabama. Luker’s Pick: Georgia 31 Alabama 24


No. 25 SMU +4 at No. 17 Tulane, American Athletic Conference Championship Game, 3 p.m., ESPN

Neal McCready: If this is the end of an era at Tulane, let's remember it for how special it was for Green Wave fans. Neal's Pick: Tulane 30, SMU 23

Chase Parham: Tulane is going to an access bowl for the second time in a row after being 2-10 two years ago. It's a hell of a feat, and I wonder what Michael Pratt's interest will be on the market via the portal. He hasn't been spectacular this season, but he's won a lot of games. Parham's Pick: Tulane 27, SMU 20

Jeffrey Wright: I cannot bet on SMU with its backup quarterback on the road. SMU is 0-5 ATS as a road underdog since last season while Tulane is 18-8 ATS as a home favorite since 2019, a total that includes the disastrous 2021 season. WRIGHT’S PICK: TULANE 24, SMU 14

Brian Rippee: SMU is without its quarterback and Tulane is destined for another access bowl. This feels like a tough spot for the Mustangs. Rippee’s Pick: Tulane 28, SMU 20

Michael Luker: I can't willingly pick SMU knowing that they are going into this game without their starting QB. Ole Miss fans need to pull like hell for Tulane here if you want any shot at a NY6 bowl. Luker’s Pick: Tulane 34 SMU 27


Appalachian State +6.5 at Troy, Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, 3 p.m., ESPN2

Neal McCready: I can't help but wonder if the Jon Sumrall era at Troy is approaching an end. He's too good of a coach, and the carousel is still spinning. Neal's Pick: Troy 30, Appalachian State 23

Chase Parham: Just give me the points. I like Sumrall and hope he wins. He's a good dude and is going to be an SEC head coach soon. I watched Appalachian State knock off James Madison. That's my level of research here. Parham's Pick: Troy 31, App State 27

Jeffrey Wright: I honestly have no idea, but I do know that Troy hasn’t exactly been a lock as a home favorite while App State is 3-0-1 ATS as a road underdog with two outright wins and another blown game at Wyoming. I’ll take the points. WRIGHT’S PICK: TROY 31, APP STATE 28

Brian Rippee: I am a Jon Sumrall fan. Do I know him? No, I do not. Was he the only coach during the Matt Luke era that didn't make me want to fall asleep during an interview? Yes, he was. Rippee's Pick: Troy 30, App State 24

Michael Luker: I really like Jon Sumrall and I like the program that he's built at Troy. Luker’s Pick: Troy 28 App State 20


No. 2 Michigan -23 vs. No. 18 Iowa, Big Ten Conference Championship Game, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, 7 p.m., FOX

Neal McCready: I think this is free money. I kind of hope I'm wrong. Neal's Pick: Michigan 42, Iowa 6

Chase Parham: I can't take Iowa to play close in this game. Michigan is the better version of Iowa in every way -- including the uniform. Parham's Pick: Michigan 34, Iowa 9

Jeffrey Wright: I don’t care how square this pick is, I want Michigan. I’ve seen this game before. Iowa won’t score, and Harbaugh will want to send a message. WRIGHT’S PICK: MICHIGAN 42, IOWA 3

Brian Rippee: I often imagine what it is like to be an Iowa football fan. Do you remember where you were when a touchdown was scored? What is it like being miserable during a conference championship game appearance? This line smells so square that I am ashamed of what I am about to do. Rippee's Pick: Michigan 27, Iowa 6

Michael Luker: I don't think I've ever seen a game in which a team was favored by 23 points and the over under was set at 35 points. Absolutely insane. Michigan will win, the only question is by how much. Penn State put up 31 on Iowa, so I have to think Michigan will put up a number in that ballpark. Luker’s Pick: Michigan 28 Iowa 3


No. 15 Louisville +4.5 vs. No. 4 Florida State, Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C., 7 p.m., ABC

Neal McCready: I keep saying the committee is going to be bailed out. It always is. Neal's Pick: Louisville 27, Florida State 24

Chase Parham: The issue is that Louisville isn't very good. Kentucky beat it last week, and FSU while struggling at quarterback is solid with the the rest of the team and probably can get in the playoff with a win. Louisville is a bit of a fraud. Parham's Pick: FSU 20, Louisville 13

Jeffrey Wright: I don’t know what to do with this game. On one hand, I think Louisville will be able to score enough to make things difficult on Florida State, and I am pretty sure that Rodemaker got concussed against Florida. On the other hand, I don’t actually think Louisville is good. I’ll say that Louisville will score more than FSU can. I like the over more than either side. WRIGHT’S PICK: LOUISVILLE 31, FSU 24

Brian Rippee: I find the four team "playoff" -- that is really a group of empty suits deciding what four teams out of 130 get to play for a national title -- to be a complete farce. I am rooting for chaos. And by chaos, I mean daring them to leave out an undefeated Florida State team while somehow simultaneously defending the idea this is a legitimate way to decide a champion on the second biggest football stage in the world. A joke. Rippee's Pick: Florida State 28, Louisville 14

Michael Luker: The real value in this game is Louisville ML. Florida State is certainly a different team without Jordan Travis, but after what I saw with Louisville last weekend, I think they get the job done. The question then becomes if they are playoff worthy without Travis. Precedent says yes, but precedent doesn't always matter. Luker’s Pick: FSU 31 Louisville 27


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