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Published May 18, 2021
Parham: UT Martin hit Ole Miss' pitching staff, not its resume
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Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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OXFORD | UT Martin outplayed Ole Miss on Tuesday night.

That is undebatable, as the Skyhawks beat the Rebels, 9-7, and picked up an exclamation point at the end of their season, which will finish this weekend because they are mathematically eliminated from qualifying for the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament.

Ole Miss (36-16), two days after taking the series from No. 2 Vandy, sputtered with an OVC cellar dweller that played above its head. That's undebatable.

But what it means is the more important question, and the answer differs from the bit of message board and social media hysteria accompanying the midweek loss.

There’s some teeth-gnashing about this affecting Ole Miss’ resume for a host selection, but the game has little impact on that decision. The Rebels fell from 12 to 14 in the RPI. Of note, Fairfield and Oklahoma State are ahead of Ole Miss in the RPI but aren't options to host regionals.

The non-conference portion of the Ole Miss resume ends at 20-5, which is within the comfortable range for a host candidate. It also includes three top-10 RPI wins at a neutral site, thanks to the gift that keeps on giving when the Rebels opened the season with a sweep of Texas, TCU and Texas Tech in Arlington.

Non-conference slates are mostly looked at as a group more than in single games. If hell breaks loose with Ole Miss’ host candidacy, it’s because of what happens in Athens starting Thursday instead of the pitching struggles at Swayze Field on Tuesday.

Ole Miss can get to 17-13 in the SEC with one win against Georgia, and since the series is on the road, that should be enough to maintain its RPI in the top 15 or top 16 and shore up the hosting situation. A series win to get to 18-12 makes it a certifiable lock, no matter what happens in Hoover or with any other teams.

Frankly, I think 17-13 does that, as well, considering the Rebels’ 15 wins against the RPI top 27 (Alabama is at 27 and could easily finish in the top 25).

And if something goes haywire in Athens to derail the top 16 seed chase, it won’t be because of anything to do with UT Martin. Tuesday’s game has little to no impact on Ole Miss’ resume.

But it does have an impact on something. It’s another example of Ole Miss’ likely need for a clean regional — no matter where it’s played.

The Rebels, especially with the loss of Gunnar Hoglund, who had successful Tommy John surgery in Pensacola, Florida, on Tuesday, haven’t shown enough pitching to climb through a loser’s bracket.

Players can surprise, and anything can happen, but it’s easy to see that that best chance for Ole Miss is a script that stays pretty chalk throughout regional weekend.

Josh Mallitz, Austin Miller and Tyler Myers all struggled on Tuesday, combining to give up seven hits, six runs and three walks in 3.2 innings. Miller and Myers are two of Mike Bianco’s most trusted bullpen arms, and Mallitz has been the midweek starter in recent weeks.

Ole Miss will start Doug Nikhazy, Derek Diamond and Drew McDaniel again this weekend and the rest of the season, most likely. Taylor Broadway has the closer role solidified obviously, but question marks remain elsewhere.

Myers and Miller are oft-used and Jack Dougherty has been a reliever godsend out of nowhere since removing his redshirt in April.

Brandon Johnson, who threw 2.2 innings scoreless with five strikeouts on Tuesday, has shown a lot of upside in the past week, and Jackson Kimbrell gave the Rebels quality left-handed innings out of the bullpen against Vanderbilt. Wes Burton remains a possibility to miss bats and has only one walk in his last 5.2 innings.

There are some potential options, and Bianco praised Johnson on Tuesday for his recent work, but how the Rebels pitch through a regional is of far greater importance than the Skyhawks’ impact on Ole Miss’ resume.

The thing on display wasn’t how an OVC team made hosting more difficult. It’s that once the games begin in the postseason, Ole Miss can’t have Tuesday happen again.

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