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Published May 1, 2023
Rebels make up ground in SEC Tournament race
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Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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OXFORD | The weekend went well with regard to Ole Miss’ SEC Tournament hopes.

The annual conference event in Hoover, Alabama, includes the top 12 teams in the league standings. The Rebels haven’t missed the tournament since it expanded beyond eight teams and have only been absent in two of Mike Bianco’s seasons — 2002 and 2011.

Following the series win over Georgia, capped by an 8-7 walk-off victory on Sunday, Ole Miss is 5-16 in the SEC, which is tied with Missouri for 13th place. Ole Miss was two back of the Tigers entering the weekend, but Florida swept Missouri in Gainesville. The Rebels travel to Missouri this weekend.

“It’s huge for momentum,” TJ McCants said about the series win over Georgia. “It’ll help us ride on that for the next couple weeks.”

Ole Miss picked up two games on Mississippi State — which is in 12th place — as Tennessee swept the Bulldogs. MSU is 6-15 and has the tiebreaker on Ole Miss after two of three earlier this season in Starkville.

It’s essentially those three teams for the one spot right now, as Georgia is in 11th and three games ahead of the Rebels with three weekends remaining. Should Ole Miss close that gap, it would have the tiebreaker in a two-team tie.

Ole Miss (at Missouri, Auburn, at Alabama) and Missouri (Ole Miss, Georgia, at Auburn) have the easiest remaining schedules of the three teams separated by one game. State’s remaining slate is Arkansas, at LSU and Texas A&M.

COMBINED SEC RECORD OF REMAINING OPPONENTS

Ole Miss: 23-40

Missouri: 22-41

MSU: 38-24

While Hoover seems more of a possibility, Ole Miss’ NCAA Tournament hopes remain bleak. The Rebels would have to go 8-1 in the remaining nine league games to get to 13 SEC wins.

Only one SEC team has made the tournament with fewer than that since the NCAA field expanded to 64 teams. Mississippi State went 12-17 (35 total regular season wins) in 2006 and got an at-large bid.

Even at 14 wins it’s not a certainty because of Ole Miss’ resume issue. The Rebels got the last at-large bid a season ago with the No. 38 RPI. The selection committee credited Ole Miss’ series wins at Auburn and at LSU as key reasons for the Rebels getting in over North Carolina State.

Ole Miss, currently, has an RPI of 65 and series remaining against No. 42, No. 21 and No. 34. In this hypothetical of a hot streak to finish the season, those are nice series wins, but the Rebels need at least a 25-point RPI jump to reach where the SEC has to be for at-large consideration.

Georgia (No. 23) and Maryland (No. 43) are Ole Miss’ best series wins. The Rebels have three midweek losses outside the top 100 — Memphis (168), Jacksonville State (183) and Louisiana Tech (121). Ole Miss has played two teams outside the top 300.

The SEC Tournament is certainly in play, but the real postseason isn’t a current conversation topic. The Rebels would need a near flawless close and some Hoover success — for the wins and RPI help — to make that a realistic possibility.

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