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Published May 12, 2023
Rebels, Tigers set for Friday doubleheader
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Chase Parham  •  RebelGrove
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Ole Miss and Auburn start with a matinee for the first of two games on Friday after showers caused a postponement on Thursday.

The Tigers and Rebels play game one of the doubleheader at 2 p.m., and the second game will begin one hour after the first game ends. Thursday’s ticket is for game one, and Friday’s ticket is for game two.

Saturday's finale is at 2 p.m. on SEC Network.

REBELS IN UNCHARTED TERRITORY

Ole Miss faces a mental challenge these final two weekends, as the Rebels play six conference games that are likely meaningless from an at-large NCAA Tournament standpoint.

The Rebels are 25-23 overall and 6-18 in the league, and while they are very much in the running for the final SEC Tournament spot, at-large NCAA Tournament hopes are extinguished. Ole Miss is No. 61 in the RPI as of Friday morning.

Since the NCAA expanded to a 64-team field, no team has received an at-large bid with 18 regular season SEC losses. Mississippi State, in 2006, was 12-17, with a 35 RPI and made it, though the odds of that today are far lower.

Ole Miss’ path to the postseason is quite simple but even more daunting of a process -- pass MSU and Missouri for the 12th spot in Hoover and then win the SEC Tournament to get the automatic bid. That’s it.

Mike Bianco, as he should, will use the SEC Tournament as motivation. It’s what he has to work with, and there are stories of teams getting hot and finding magic. We’ve seen a version of that recently.

It’s the argument he has, and it’s where Ole Miss sits, though the mental part of it is interesting to me considering Friday is the first time in Bianco’s 23 Ole Miss seasons he will coach a game without NCAA at-large implications.

Over the past weeks, he’s focused less on the standings and possibilities and more on doing things the right way. He’s told the media he’s implored his team to show the consistency and the maturity that’s expected within the program, that losses and poor play don’t change the program’s tenets.

Hoover is a reachable goal. Ole Miss is tied with Mississippi State and one game behind Missouri. The Rebels have to pass both, as any tiebreakers go to their opponents.

State closes with LSU and Texas A&M. Missouri has Georgia and Auburn. Ole Miss is at Alabama next weekend.

The macro story is the offseason and whether Ole Miss can make this season an anomaly. The micro story is about the SEC Tournament. The latter, though, is not what the program is used to or has experienced in more than two decades.

ALDERMAN ENJOYING UNDERRATED SPECIAL SEASON

It’s not a secret Kemp Alderman is putting together a great season, but Ole Miss’ win-loss record has hidden it somewhat from an attention standpoint.

He’s a success story that isn’t talked about enough. Alderman came to Ole Miss with tremendous power but also with a hitch in his swing and struggles reading breaking balls. As a freshman, he struck out 11 times in 16 at-bats and had two hits — though one was the walk-off home run against LSU.

Alderman improved dramatically in 2022, hitting .286 with 15 doubles and 11 home runs. He also walked 29 times after not walking at all the previous season. There were signs of an all-conference breakout, as his approach and plate discipline started to catch up to his power.

Now as a junior, and in his first draft season, Alderman is one of the SEC’s best players. The outfielder is hitting .377 with a .744 slugging percentagee and .443 on-base percentage. He’s walked 24 times and hit 19 home runs.

He’s kept his walk rate approximately the same as last season at 11 percent compared to 12 percent and dropped his strikeout rate from 24 percent to 17 percent.

Alderman leads the Rebels in OPS, batting average, home runs, hits, RBIs, slugging and is second in on-base percentage — .443 to Calvin Harris’ .447.

League-wide, Alderman is seventh in batting average, third in total bases, fourth in hits, sixth in RBIs and fifth in home runs. He’s also second in the SEC in hits in conference games.

Alderman routinely leads the Rebels in exit velocity with consistent ball speeds in the 110s and some nearing 120 MPH.

Just as notably, people around the program credit Alderman for showing up every day with leadership and consistency. Despite the team struggles, almost to a man he’s praised for playing hard and staying focused.

The big picture can overshadow performances. That’s athletics. Alderman, though, is putting together a special season and a climax to his development.

AUBURN TRYING TO STAY OFF NCAA BUBBLE

Auburn is 11-13 in the SEC and can potentially get an NCAA Tournament berth with a 3-3 league finish. The Tigers close at home against Missouri.

While Auburn is just 27-19 overall, the Tigers are at 29 in the RPI — a spot that is likely safe but could get dangerous with much of a tumble.

Auburn, like Ole Miss, has played this season without its ace. Joseph Gonzalez, who pitched against the Rebels in the 2022 College World Series, has been shut down since the first week of the season with a shoulder injury.

Gonzalez threw 41 pitches in five innings against Indiana but hasn’t pitched since that day in mid February. The Tigers, in the past three full seasons, have advanced to the College World Series twice, wrapped around a 10-20 league record in 2021.

Projected Starters

Ole Miss: LHP Xavier Rivas

5-3, 5.83 ERA, 72 K, 34 BB

Auburn: RHP Chase Allsup

0-1, 7.20 ERA, 32 K, 25 BB

Ole Miss: RHP JT Quinn

3-2, 5.86 ERA, 56 K, 29 BB

Auburn: LHP Tommy Vail

4-1, 3.68 ERA, 66 K, 35 BB

Ole Miss: TBA

0-0, - ERA, - K, - BB

Auburn: RHP Christian Herberholtz

1-3, 4.37 ERA, 41 K, 22 BB

Tommy Vail has been a key for Auburn this past month. Following four straight outings of four runs or more and only one start of five innings, he’s put up four consecutive solid starts.

Against Alabama, MSU, South Carorlina and LSU, Vail has given up a total of three earned runs in 20.2 innings. He shut out Alabama and Mississippi State over 6.2 and five innings, respectively.

Christian Heberholtz, against those same four opponents gave up four runs in 18 innings. He held LSU to one unearned run in five innings last weekend.

Chase Allsup hasn’t gone more than four innings all season. He gave up two runs against LSU in a season-high four innings. It was his first SEC start of the season.

SEC AT A GLANCE

Auburn at Ole Miss

Vanderbilt at Florida

Kentucky at Tennessee

Georgia at Missouri

Alabama at Texas A&M

South Carolina at Arkansas

Mississippi State at LSU

SEC STANDINGS

SEC EAST

Vanderbilt 17-7

Florida 15-9

South Carolina 14-9

Kentucky 14-10

Tennessee 12-12

Georgia 10-14

Missouri 7-17

SEC WEST

Arkansas 17-7

LSU 16-7

Alabama 11-13

Auburn 11-13

Mississippi State 6-18

Ole Miss 6-18

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